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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2HOU
HOU

HOU

59-42

3
1
ARI

ARI

50-52

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
25,650 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 3 · ARI 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000000213
ARI0000100001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    142
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 96
    190
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    160
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    162
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    184
    29(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    195
    30(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Mauricio Dubon

Mauricio Dubon

SS

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk

RF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU59-42
3
1
ARI50-52
HOU59-42·ARI50-52
HOU

HOU

59-42

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-44000012
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
2-44120010
SPRINT27.867
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-55020001
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
2-55020000
SPRINT25.513
C. McCormickC. McCormick★LF
0-33000000
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
1-44112111
SPRINT28.278
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
2-33020010
SPRINT26.428
C. HummelC. Hummel★LF
0-44000000
Z. ShortZ. Short★SS
1-44010002
Team10-36363102156
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
7.0711140
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0000010
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0300010
Team9.01011160
ARI

ARI

50-52

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-44000001
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT29.496
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT25.818
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44000003
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT23.81
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
3-33130000
SPRINT26.735
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
3-44030000
SPRINT26.838
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-33001001
J. HerreraJ. Herrera★C
0-44000000
J. McCannJ. McCannC
1-11010000
Team10-34341101016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
6.1600330
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
0.2000110
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
1.2433111
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
0.1000010
Team9.01033561

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ARI

  • K. Ginkel
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      88%·95.0 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

10

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

2

Current series

HOU wins series 3-0

Jul 22HOUHOU6@ARIARI3
Jul 23HOUHOU3@ARIARI1today
Jul 23HOUHOU4@ARIARI3

Season series

HOU leads series 2-0

Jul 22HOUHOU6@ARIARI3
Jul 23HOUHOU3@ARIARI1today
Jul 23HOUHOU4@ARIARI3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 44pp · Top 8th Inning

HOUHOU
M. Dubon

M. Dubon

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
R. Grichuk

R. Grichuk

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

HOU beat ARI 3-1. Matthews's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (44pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 5th Inning · 0-0
+15pp→ 60% WP

Grichuk · doubled to center.

HOUTop 8th Inning · 2-1
+44pp→ 70% WP

Matthews · homered to left (396 feet), Trammell scored.

HOUBottom 9th Inning · 3-1
+30pp→ 100% WP

Herrera · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Perdomo out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000000213
ARI0000100001

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · ARI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Alexander 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Matthews 2

1
0

Inn 9

Matthews 1

HOU
ARI

Play-by-play · 553 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  3. B9

    Herrera grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Perdomo out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

    −30pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  6. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Jose Herrera

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  7. B9

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  8. B9

    Alexander struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

    −16pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  12. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Blaze Alexander

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  13. B9

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  14. B9

    Perdomo singled to center, McCarthy to second, Naylor to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

    +16pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  17. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  18. B9

    McCarthy ran for McCann

    ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  19. B9

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  20. B9

    McCann reached on infield single to second, Naylor to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

    +12pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  22. B9

    Bryan King pitches to James McCann

    · ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  23. B9

    McCann hit for Thomas

    ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  24. B9

    ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  25. B9

    Naylor singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

    +9pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  29. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Josh Naylor

    ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

  30. B9

    King relieved Abreu

    ·

    HOU 3·ARI 1

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

3

Runs

1

10

Hits

10

0

Errors

2

13

TB

13

1

HR

0

5

BB

1

6

K

6

22

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395

Player projections

ARI vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    45.8%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.2%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.4%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.