• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2CHC
BAL

BAL

51-61

3
5
CHC

CHC

65-46

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
39,430 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

BAL 3 · CHC 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0011000013
CHC2000010025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 96
    14
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 96
    16
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    14
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    70
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    285
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    72
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 3·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Baltimore Orioles, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Ryan Noda

Ryan Noda

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Justin Turner

Justin Turner

1B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL51-61
3
5
CHC65-46
BAL51-61·CHC65-46
BAL

BAL

51-61

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-55010002
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
1-33010010
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-33011011
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-44110002
SPRINT26.632
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-22000010
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
2-44121002
SPRINT28.175
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
0-44000000
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-44000001
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
0-22100002
Jor. AdamsJor. AdamsCF
0-11000000
R. NodaR. Noda1B
1-11011000
Team7-33333730310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. YoungB. Young★SP
4.2520240
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
1.2511030
K. StrowdK. StrowdRP
1.2000010
Team8.01152281
CHC

CHC

65-46

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-33110011
SPRINT25.716
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
2-33020000
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
2-44121001
SPRINT27.457
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000003
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-33000010
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44011000
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-44110001
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44020000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44111002
SPRINT27.867
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
1-11112100
Team11-34345115128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
4.2522140
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.1000120
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000010
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000120
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0211010
Team9.07333100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • B. Young
    80 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·75.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      16%·86.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Enns
    41 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      34%·86.0 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      32%·84.8 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      32%·94.2 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      2%·77.3 mph·— whiff
  • K. Strowd
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      52%·92.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      26%·83.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Akin
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • CH
      67%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·92.8 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • C. Rea
    77 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.7 mph·6% whiff
    • FS
      19%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·82.9 mph·63% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      85%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      15%·83.0 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      61%·89.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.5 mph·— whiff
  • D. Palencia
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      67%·100.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Keller
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      47%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·92.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      12%·96.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      12%·87.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

11

3

Runs

5

2

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Aug 1BALBAL0@CHCCHC1
Aug 2BALBAL4@CHCCHC3
Aug 3BALBAL3@CHCCHC5today

Season series

CHC win series 2-1

Aug 1BALBAL0@CHCCHC1
Aug 2BALBAL4@CHCCHC3
Aug 3BALBAL3@CHCCHC5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 29pp · Top 9th Inning

BALBAL
R. Noda

R. Noda

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Young

B. Young

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

CHCCHC
J. Turner

J. Turner

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat BAL 5-3. Noda's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

CHC vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 9th Inning · 2-3
+17pp→ 30% WP

Cowser · doubled to right.

BALTop 9th Inning · 3-3
+29pp→ 38% WP

Noda · singled to right, Cowser scored.

CHCBottom 9th Inning · 3-5
+24pp→ 100% WP

Turner · homered to left center, Swanson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0011000013
CHC2000010025

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · CHC won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Suzuki 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Henderson 1

1
0

Inn 4

Cowser 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Swanson 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
2

Inn 9

Noda 1

Turner 2

BAL
CHC

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    BAL 3·CHC 5

  2. B9

    Turner homered to left center, Swanson scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 5

    +24pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 5

  4. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Justin Turner

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 5

  5. B9

    Turner hit for Busch

    ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  6. B9

    ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  7. B9

    Swanson safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Westburg.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

    +8pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  10. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  11. B9

    Akin relieved Noda

    ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  12. B9

    Rutschman catching.

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  13. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  14. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  15. T9

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  16. T9

    Holliday flied out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

    +6pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  20. T9

    Noda stole second.

    ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  21. T9

    Noda stole second.

    ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  25. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Jackson Holliday

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  26. T9

    ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  27. T9

    Noda singled to right, Cowser scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

    −29pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHC 3

  30. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Ryan Noda

    · ·

    BAL 3·CHC 3

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

3

Runs

5

7

Hits

11

2

Errors

0

9

TB

15

0

HR

1

3

BB

2

10

K

8

18

LOB

14

Player projections

CHC vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.0%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    60.4%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.2%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.6%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175