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FINAL+6CHC
KC

KC

49-53

0
6
CHC

CHC

60-41

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
40,092 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

KC 0 · CHC 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000000000
CHC020010306

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 97
    14
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    13
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    72
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 95
    173
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    232
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    15
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Kansas City Royals, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone

RF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Dansby Swanson

Dansby Swanson

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC49-53
0
6
CHC60-41
KC49-53·CHC60-41
KC

KC

49-53

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-44000001
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT30.399+
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-33000010
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44010000
SPRINT241
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT2872
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.148
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
1-33010001
SPRINT26.838
JJ. Rave★RF
1-33010001
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-33000001
Team6-3131060018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. HillR. Hill★SP
5.0631210
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.1333110
S. LongS. LongRP
0.2000020
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0000020
Team8.0964360
CHC

CHC

60-41

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-55121000
SPRINT28.278
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-22100021
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-33011010
SPRINT27.457
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-33111000
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44011001
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
2-44120001
SPRINT27.867
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-44000001
J. TurnerJ. Turner★1B
0-22100000
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
2-44121001
SPRINT28.992
M. BuschM. Busch1B
0-22000001
Team9-3333695036
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
7.0400160
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000010
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0200010
Team9.0600180

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

9

0

Runs

6

3

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Jul 22KCKC12@CHCCHC4
Jul 23KCKC0@CHCCHC6today
Jul 23KCKC8@CHCCHC4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 22KCKC12@CHCCHC4
Jul 23KCKC0@CHCCHC6today
Jul 23KCKC8@CHCCHC4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 5pp · Bottom 5th Inning

KCKC
J. Caglianone

J. Caglianone

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

R. Hill

R. Hill

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

CHCCHC
D. Swanson

D. Swanson

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat KC 6-0.

Win probability

CHC vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000000000
CHC02001030—6

Period scoring

KC won 0 · CHC won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Shaw 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Crow-Armstrong 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Suzuki 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

KC
CHC

Play-by-play · 517 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  2. T9

    Loftin struck out swinging.

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  7. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Nick Loftin

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  8. T9

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  9. T9

    Perez singled to right.

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  16. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Salvador Perez

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  17. T9

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  18. T9

    Garcia grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Witt Jr. out at second.

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

    +0.5pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  21. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Maikel Garcia

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  22. T9

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  23. T9

    Witt Jr. singled to center.

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  25. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  26. T9

    Palencia relieved Thielbar

    ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    KC 0·CHC 6

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    KC 0·CHC 6

  29. B8

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

  30. B8

    Hoerner grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    KC 0·CHC 6

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

0

Runs

6

6

Hits

9

3

Errors

0

6

TB

10

0

HR

0

1

BB

3

8

K

6

8

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CHC vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.5± 1.0high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.4%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    61.3%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.5%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.8%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.