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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYY
NYY

NYY

56-45

5
4
TOR

TOR

59-42

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,326 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 5 · TOR 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY3000100015
TOR1000120004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 23, 25sim 94
    104
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    183
    2(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 94
    101
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 93
    181
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 92
    198
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 92
    72
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger

LF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Will Wagner

Will Wagner

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY56-45
5
4
TOR59-42
NYY56-45·TOR59-42
NYY

NYY

56-45

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.735
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
3-44231100
SPRINT27.560
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33000011
SPRINT26.838
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-33113111
SPRINT28.175
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-44000001
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44111100
SPRINT26.941
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-44000001
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
0-22000001
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33000000
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
0-11000000
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
0-11000000
Team6-3333565326
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
5.0722330
T. HillT. HillRP
0.2120000
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
0.1200010
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.2000100
I. HamiltonI. HamiltonRP
0.1000000
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0100020
Team9.01142460
TOR

TOR

59-42

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-55000000
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-33221020
SPRINT25.920
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
3-55030001
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-55010002
SPRINT25.716
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
2-55022001
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-55000002
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
0-22000000
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44010000
W. WagnerW. Wagner★3B
1-11010010
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-22100000
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
1-11111010
SPRINT26.838
Team11-38384114046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
5.0544142
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
2.0000000
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
1.0000120
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0111001
Team9.0655263

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    90 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      49%·97.7 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      26%·90.3 mph·9% whiff
    • CU
      11%·82.3 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      11%·87.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      3%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    30 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      77%·95.2 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • D. Williams
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • CH
      63%·83.4 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      37%·94.4 mph·17% whiff
  • T. Hill
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      55%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·84.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      63%·98.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      38%·91.2 mph·100% whiff
  • I. Hamilton
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      75%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.9 mph·— whiff

TOR

  • M. Scherzer
    90 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.9 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      13%·76.7 mph·14% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      90%·90.3 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·97.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      27%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·97.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    10 pitches·60% CSW
    • SI
      90%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·79.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

11

5

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 6-1

Jun 30NYYNYY4@TORTOR5
Jul 1NYYNYY5@TORTOR12
Jul 2NYYNYY9@TORTOR11
Jul 3NYYNYY5@TORTOR8
Jul 21NYYNYY1@TORTOR4
Jul 22NYYNYY5@TORTOR4today
Jul 23NYYNYY4@TORTOR8

Season series

TOR leads series 6-3

Apr 25TORTOR4@NYYNYY2
Apr 26TORTOR0@NYYNYY0
Apr 27TORTOR2@NYYNYY11
Apr 27TORTOR1@NYYNYY5
Jun 30NYYNYY4@TORTOR5
Jul 1NYYNYY5@TORTOR12
Jul 2NYYNYY9@TORTOR11
Jul 3NYYNYY5@TORTOR8
Jul 21NYYNYY1@TORTOR4
Jul 22NYYNYY5@TORTOR4today
Jul 23NYYNYY4@TORTOR8
Sep 5TORTOR7@NYYNYY1
Sep 6TORTOR1@NYYNYY3
Sep 7TORTOR3@NYYNYY4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 37pp · Top 9th Inning

NYYNYY
C. Bellinger

C. Bellinger

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

TORTOR
W. Wagner

W. Wagner

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat TOR 5-4. Rice's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+18pp→ 68% WP

Chisholm Jr. · homered to right center (407 feet), Grisham scored and Bellinger scored.

TORBottom 6th Inning · 4-4
+19pp→ 59% WP

Springer · singled to right, Schneider scored, Springer to second.

NYYTop 9th Inning · 5-4
+37pp→ 78% WP

Rice · homered to right center (389 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY3000100015
TOR1000120004

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · TOR won 1

3
1

Inn 1

Jr. 3

Barger 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
1

Inn 5

Bellinger 1

Barger 1

0
2

Inn 6

Schneider 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Rice 1

NYY
TOR

Play-by-play · 581 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  3. B9

    Kirk struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

    −11pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  7. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  8. B9

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  9. B9

    Barger flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

    −13pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  17. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Addison Barger

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  18. B9

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  19. B9

    Bichette struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

    −14pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  24. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Bo Bichette

    · ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  25. B9

    ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  26. B9

    Guerrero Jr. singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

    +13pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 5·TOR 4

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

5

Runs

4

6

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

17

TB

13

3

HR

0

2

BB

4

6

K

6

6

LOB

24

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.3± 2.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    58.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.6%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.0%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.