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FINAL+1CHC
BAL

BAL

50-60

0
1
CHC

CHC

64-45

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
40,520 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

BAL 0 · CHC 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000000000
CHC010000001

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 1·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Baltimore Orioles, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday

2B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly

C

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL50-60
0
1
CHC64-45
BAL50-60·CHC64-45
BAL

BAL

50-60

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-33010010
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
0-44000001
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-33000011
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-44000001
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33000002
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-22000012
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
0-22000010
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT26.530
Team3-2828030048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
8.0411080
Team8.0411080
CHC

CHC

64-45

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-44000002
SPRINT28.278
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-33000001
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-33000001
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-33120001
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT29.294
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000002
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-22001000
SPRINT27.662
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33000001
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT28.992
Team4-2727141008
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HortonC. Horton★SP
5.0200330
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000010
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000020
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000120
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0100000
Team9.0300480

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    88 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      45%·92.9 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      22%·87.0 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      14%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      14%·78.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.4 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • C. Horton
    71 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.4 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      18%·82.9 mph·57% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      11%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      1%·94.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Keller
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      39%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·93.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      11%·87.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      11%·86.5 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      60%·95.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      40%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      33%·92.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      33%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      22%·76.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·88.1 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      78%·99.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·90.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      11%·87.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

4

0

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Aug 1BALBAL0@CHCCHC1today
Aug 2BALBAL4@CHCCHC3
Aug 3BALBAL3@CHCCHC5

Season series

CHC lead series 1-0

Aug 1BALBAL0@CHCCHC1today
Aug 2BALBAL4@CHCCHC3
Aug 3BALBAL3@CHCCHC5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 9pp · Top 5th Inning

BALBAL
J. Holliday

J. Holliday

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

8.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H

CHCCHC
C. Kelly

C. Kelly

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

C. Horton

C. Horton

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHC beat BAL 1-0.

Win probability

CHC vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 75% WP

Crow-Armstrong · doubled to center, Kelly to third.

CHCTop 5th Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 77% WP

Carlson · grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Mayo out at second.

CHCTop 9th Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 100% WP

O'Neill · flied out to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000000000
CHC01000000—1

Period scoring

BAL won 0 · CHC won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Happ 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BAL
CHC

Play-by-play · 428 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  2. T9

    O'Neill flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

    +9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  5. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Tyler O'Neill

    · ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  6. T9

    Adams ran for Rutschman

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  7. T9

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  8. T9

    Rutschman doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

    −6pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  12. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Adley Rutschman

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  13. T9

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  14. T9

    Henderson flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

    +5pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  18. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  19. T9

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  20. T9

    Westburg popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

    +6pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  22. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Jordan Westburg

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  23. T9

    Palencia relieved Keller

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  26. B8

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  27. B8

    Hoerner flied out to center.

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

    −1pp

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 0·CHC 1

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

0

Runs

1

3

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

4

TB

6

0

HR

0

4

BB

0

8

K

8

11

LOB

9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 15, 25sim 93
    281
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 93
    210
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 93
    70
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 29, 25sim 93
    151
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 93
    293
    19(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 92
    173
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CHC vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    60.9%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.9%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.9%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.