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FINAL+1PHI
NYM

NYM

76-68

0
1
PHI

PHI

84-60

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
40,388 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

NYM 0 · PHI 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
PHI010000001

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    183
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 95
    280
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    112
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 95
    281
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 93
    10
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 92
    183
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Sep 8·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off New York Mets, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Brett Baty

Brett Baty

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Harrison Bader

Harrison Bader

CF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM76-68
0
1
PHI84-60
NYM76-68·PHI84-60
NYM

NYM

76-68

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-33000011
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-33000011
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-44020001
SPRINT25.29
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-44000002
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.513
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.920
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-44000003
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-11010010
SPRINT26.735
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-22000001
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000000
L. AcunaL. AcunaCF
0-11000000
Team5-31310500311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
5.1711350
G. SotoG. SotoRP
0.2000010
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0000000
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0000020
Team8.0711380
PHI

PHI

84-60

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000002
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33000010
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-33000010
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
1-44110002
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
3-44030001
SPRINT27.662
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-33011000
SPRINT27.148
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.688
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-33010002
SPRINT28.278
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-22000011
Team7-2929171038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. NolaA. Nola★SP
6.0300270
D. RobertsonD. RobertsonRP
1.0000020
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0000100
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0200020
Team9.05003110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • N. McLean
    91 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      23%·85.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.9 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      21%·80.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      10%·97.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      9%·91.0 mph·67% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    15 pitches·53% CSW
    • SL
      73%·89.1 mph·83% whiff
    • CU
      20%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·100.5 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Soto
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      50%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·84.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      50%·90.6 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.2 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • A. Nola
    94 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      29%·92.0 mph·9% whiff
    • SI
      26%·91.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      22%·85.0 mph·10% whiff
    • KC
      22%·77.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      1%·86.8 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      37%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      37%·83.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      16%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • KC
      43%·89.9 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      36%·101.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      21%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Robertson
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • KC
      36%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      18%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·91.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

0

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 6-1

Jun 20NYMNYM2@PHIPHI10
Jun 21NYMNYM11@PHIPHI4
Jun 22NYMNYM1@PHIPHI7
Sep 8NYMNYM0@PHIPHI1today
Sep 9NYMNYM3@PHIPHI9
Sep 10NYMNYM3@PHIPHI11
Sep 11NYMNYM4@PHIPHI6

Season series

NYM lead series 7-3

Apr 21PHIPHI4@NYMNYM5
Apr 22PHIPHI1@NYMNYM5
Apr 23PHIPHI3@NYMNYM4
Jun 20NYMNYM2@PHIPHI10
Jun 21NYMNYM11@PHIPHI4
Jun 22NYMNYM1@PHIPHI7
Aug 25PHIPHI3@NYMNYM13
Aug 26PHIPHI5@NYMNYM6
Aug 27PHIPHI0@NYMNYM6
Sep 8NYMNYM0@PHIPHI1today
Sep 9NYMNYM3@PHIPHI9
Sep 10NYMNYM3@PHIPHI11
Sep 11NYMNYM4@PHIPHI6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 9th Inning

NYMNYM
B. Baty

B. Baty

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

PHIPHI
H. Bader

H. Bader

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

A. Nola

A. Nola

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PHI beat NYM 1-0. McNeil's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

PHI vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 60% WP

Kepler · singled to left.

NYMTop 9th Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 30% WP

Alonso · singled to center.

PHITop 9th Inning · 0-1
+24pp→ 83% WP

McNeil · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
PHI01000000—1

Period scoring

NYM won 0 · PHI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Castellanos 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYM
PHI

Play-by-play · 507 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  2. T9

    Alvarez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

    +18pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  6. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Francisco Alvarez

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  7. T9

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  8. T9

    McNeil struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

    +24pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  15. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Jeff McNeil

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  16. T9

    J. Young ran for Vientos

    ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  17. T9

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  18. T9

    Vientos doubled to right, Mauricio to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

    −24pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  20. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Mark Vientos

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  21. T9

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  22. T9

    Nimmo lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

    +12pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  26. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    · ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  27. T9

    Mauricio ran for Alonso

    ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  28. T9

    ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

  29. T9

    Alonso singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

    −11pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 0·PHI 1

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

0

Runs

1

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

7

TB

7

0

HR

0

3

BB

3

11

K

8

14

LOB

14

Player projections

PHI vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.5± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.5%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    60.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.8%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278