HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4CHW
PHI

PHI

60-46

2
6
CHW

CHW

39-68

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
15,106 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

PHI

league avg

CHW

CHW

.681

OPS

.717

▶

.737

.296

OBP

.319

▶

.325

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.11

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.29

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

9.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

PHI 2 · CHW 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0020000002
CHW002200026

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jul 28·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Philadelphia Phillies, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. SanchezPHI−33.8pp
  2. 2A. BenintendiCHW+27.2pp
  3. 3L. Robert Jr.CHW+25.8pp

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Lenyn Sosa

Lenyn Sosa

2B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerSS
.2914000002
K. SchwarberDH
.2531000031
B. Harper1B
.2654022001
N. CastellanosRF
.2684000001
J.T. RealmutoC
.2704000001
B. MarshLF
.2534020001
O. KempLF
.2414000001
M. KeplerLF
.2054110001
B. Stott2B
.2323110012
Team322620411

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. SanchezSP
6.27441588
M. LazarRP
0.1000004
S. JohnsonSP
1.03221124
Team8.0106626116

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. Meidroth2B
.2534000001
A. SlaterRF
.2443010000
E. QueroC
.2714000000
M. Vargas3B
.2304120001
A. BenintendiDH
.2363200010
L. Robert Jr.CF
.2054112102
L. Sosa2B
.2713131010
C. MontgomerySS
.2734123101
M. TaylorRF
.2174010001
- M. TauchmanRF
.2851000000
- J. Rojas3B
.1730000000
Team346106226

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
D. MartinSP
5.26223794
J. LeasureRP
1.10001127
S. WilsonRP
1.00000111
G. TaylorRP
1.00000215
Team9.0622411147

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    88 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      42%·85.7 mph·30% whiff
    • SI
      42%·94.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.3 mph·25% whiff
  • S. Johnson
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      42%·86.7 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      8%·76.2 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.0 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      50%·80.7 mph·50% whiff

CHW

  • D. Martin
    94 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      30%·88.1 mph·42% whiff
    • CH
      22%·91.3 mph·30% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Leasure
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.3 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      44%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • FC
      47%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·99.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      13%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • S. Wilson
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      55%·81.7 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.7 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

10

2

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Jul 28PHIPHI2@CHWCHW6today
Jul 29PHIPHI6@CHWCHW3
Jul 30PHIPHI3@CHWCHW9

Season series

CHW lead series 1-0

Jul 28PHIPHI2@CHWCHW6today
Jul 29PHIPHI6@CHWCHW3
Jul 30PHIPHI3@CHWCHW9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 4th Inning

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

CHWCHW
L. Sosa

L. Sosa

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHW beat PHI 6-2. Robert Jr.'s play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Win probability

CHW vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 83% WP

Harper · doubled to center, Kepler scored and Stott scored, Schwarber to third.

CHWBottom 3rd Inning · 2-2
+17pp→ 41% WP

Montgomery · homered to right (395 feet), Sosa scored.

CHWBottom 4th Inning · 2-4
+27pp→ 69% WP

Robert Jr. · homered to right (351 feet), Benintendi scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0020000002
CHW00220002—6

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · CHW won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
2

Inn 3

Harper 2

Montgomery 2

0
2

Inn 4

Jr. 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Sosa 1

0

Inn 9

PHI
CHW

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  2. T9

    Stott struck out looking.

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  9. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Bryson Stott

    · ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  10. T9

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  11. T9

    Kepler struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  17. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Max Kepler

    · ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  18. T9

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  19. T9

    Kemp flied out to right.

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

    +0.8pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  24. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Otto Kemp

    · ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  25. T9

    G. Taylor relieved Wilson

    · ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  26. T9

    Rojas at second base.

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  29. B8

    · ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

  30. B8

    M. Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Montgomery out at second.

    · ·

    PHI 2·CHW 6

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

2

Runs

6

6

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

7

TB

17

0

HR

2

4

BB

2

11

K

6

12

LOB

12

Player projections

CHW vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    8.1± 3.4low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.3± 3.1low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.0± 3.3low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    2.3± 3.5low
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    2.1± 2.2high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    1.0± 1.9low
  • Alec BohmPHI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Aaron NolaPHI
    3.5± 2.6low
  • Anthony KayCHW
    2.5± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    40.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.9%

    P(CHW win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.0%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.