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FINAL+1BOS
LAD

LAD

61-45

3
4
BOS

BOS

57-50

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
35,465 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

LAD 3 · BOS 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0012000003
BOS100030004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLB·Sun, Jul 27·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto

RF

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Rob Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD61-45
3
4
BOS57-50
LAD61-45·BOS57-50
LAD

LAD

61-45

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44011010
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-44020011
SPRINT2744
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-44000012
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-44001012
SPRINT24.74
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-55000001
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
3-44131110
SPRINT2622
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
0-33000010
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
0-33000000
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-11210030
SPRINT26.123
W. SmithW. SmithC
0-11000000
Team7-3333373196
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP
5.0544051
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0000010
J. WrobleskiJ. WrobleskiSP
2.0100110
Team8.0644171
BOS

BOS

57-50

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-33211000
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-33112111
SPRINT25.818
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-33001001
SPRINT27.969
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-33000000
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-44000002
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-33000001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-33010000
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
1-22110000
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
1-11010000
Team6-2929464117
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
4.2433541
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
0.1100100
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0100010
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
1.0100000
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
0.1000200
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.2000110
Team9.0733961

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • D. May
    77 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      39%·85.2 mph·21% whiff
    • SI
      34%·94.8 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      17%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wrobleski
    38 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      32%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      22%·78.9 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • W. Buehler
    104 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      22%·90.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.6 mph·31% whiff
    • KC
      15%·77.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hicks
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      52%·83.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      48%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wilson
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      47%·88.0 mph·29% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.0 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chapman
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.4 mph·— whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      56%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      33%·79.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·80.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Jul 25LADLAD5@BOSBOS2
Jul 26LADLAD2@BOSBOS4
Jul 27LADLAD3@BOSBOS4today

Season series

BOS wins series 2-1

Jul 25LADLAD5@BOSBOS2
Jul 26LADLAD2@BOSBOS4
Jul 27LADLAD3@BOSBOS4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 5th Inning

LADLAD
M. Conforto

M. Conforto

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 5 H

BOSBOS
R. Refsnyder

R. Refsnyder

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 5 BB

How it ended

BOS beat LAD 4-3. Anthony's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

BOS vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 62% WP

Conforto · homered to center (424 feet).

LADTop 4th Inning · 3-1
+12pp→ 70% WP

Betts · singled to center, Rojas scored.

BOSBottom 5th Inning · 3-2
+19pp→ 52% WP

Anthony · tripled to shortstop, Toro scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0012000003
BOS10003000—4

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · BOS won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Story 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Freeman 1

2
0

Inn 4

Conforto 1

0
3

Inn 5

Bregman 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAD
BOS

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  2. T9

    Edman grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

    +8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  8. T9

    Ruiz stole second.

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  9. T9

    Ruiz stole second.

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  11. T9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Tommy Edman

    · ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  12. T9

    Ruiz ran for Conforto

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  13. T9

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  14. T9

    Conforto walked.

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

    −3pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  21. T9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Michael Conforto

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  22. T9

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  23. T9

    Pages grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

    +6pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  25. T9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Andy Pages

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  26. T9

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  27. T9

    Freeman struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

    +4pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 3·BOS 4

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

3

Runs

4

7

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

13

TB

11

1

HR

1

9

BB

1

6

K

7

20

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BOS vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    53.7%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.8%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 25, 25sim 99
    195
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 97
    192
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 96
    21
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 96
    195
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    254
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    133
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
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