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FINAL+3LAD
LAD

LAD

61-43

5
2
BOS

BOS

55-50

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,369 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · BOS 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0120000205
BOS0020000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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MLB·Fri, Jul 25·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 5–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

LF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

LF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD61-43
5
2
BOS55-50
LAD61-43·BOS55-50
LAD

LAD

61-43

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44110012
SPRINT2744
W. SmithW. Smith★C
2-55120001
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-33113111
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
2-33121000
SPRINT28.175
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
1-44010001
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-44011000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000004
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-33000010
Team10-343451051310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP
5.0322250
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.2100010
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
0.1000000
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000020
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
1.0100000
Team9.0522280
BOS

BOS

55-50

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-33111011
SPRINT29.294
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44011000
SPRINT25.818
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-33000011
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT27.969
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT26.123
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44000001
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-22000001
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
0-22000001
C. WongC. Wong★C
1-33110000
SPRINT27.354
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez1B
0-11000001
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-22000000
Team5-3232252028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
5.1633250
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
1.2211030
J. AlcalaJ. AlcalaRP
1.1211121
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
0.2000000
Team9.010553101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • E. Sheehan
    78 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.9 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.3 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      19%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Banda
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      74%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Casparius
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      47%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      26%·81.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      16%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·91.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Vesia
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      67%·92.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Henriquez
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      43%·95.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      29%·100.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      14%·90.9 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • B. Bello
    98 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      27%·95.6 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      21%·85.9 mph·44% whiff
    • FC
      19%·87.9 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.3 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.4 mph·57% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    31 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.7 mph·57% whiff
    • CU
      23%·75.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      19%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Alcala
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      48%·97.7 mph·57% whiff
    • CU
      26%·85.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      19%·90.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      75%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·78.7 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·85.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

5

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Jul 25LADLAD5@BOSBOS2today
Jul 26LADLAD2@BOSBOS4
Jul 27LADLAD3@BOSBOS4

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

Jul 25LADLAD5@BOSBOS2today
Jul 26LADLAD2@BOSBOS4
Jul 27LADLAD3@BOSBOS4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 8th Inning

LADLAD
T. Hernández

T. Hernández

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

BOSBOS
J. Duran

J. Duran

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat BOS 5-2. T. Hern's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 71% WP

T. Hern · ández walked, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second, Smith to third.

BOSBottom 3rd Inning · 3-2
+14pp→ 62% WP

Bregman · doubled to left, Duran scored.

LADTop 8th Inning · 5-2
+18pp→ 92% WP

T. Hern · ández homered to center (415 feet), Freeman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0120000205
BOS0020000002

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

5

Runs

2

10

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

15

TB

8

1

HR

0

3

BB

2

10

K

8

11

LOB

13

Win probability

BOS vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · BOS won 0

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Edman 1

2
2

Inn 3

Hern 1

Duran 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Hern 2

0
0

Inn 9

LAD
BOS

Play-by-play · 576 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  3. B9

    Refsnyder grounded out to second.

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  8. B9

    Ben Casparius pitches to Rob Refsnyder

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  9. B9

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  10. B9

    González hit by pitch.

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

    +2pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  13. B9

    Ben Casparius pitches to Romy Gonzalez

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  14. B9

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  15. B9

    Rafaela flied out to center.

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

    −3pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  17. B9

    Ben Casparius pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  18. B9

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  19. B9

    Yoshida grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

    −6pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  28. B9

    Ben Casparius pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    · ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  29. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

  30. B9

    Story doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 5·BOS 2

    +6pp

Player projections

BOS vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    53.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.3%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.0%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 27, 25sim 99
    193
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    192
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 96
    21
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 95
    195
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    133
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    254
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
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