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FINAL+3PHI
BOS

BOS

54-49

1
4
PHI

PHI

58-43

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
43,409 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

BOS 1 · PHI 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0001000001
PHI220000004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 98
    192
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 98
    22
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    193
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 96
    195
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    210
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    250
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Boston Red Sox, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Rob Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder

DH

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Max Kepler

Max Kepler

LF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS54-49
1
4
PHI58-43
BOS54-49·PHI58-43
BOS

BOS

54-49

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
1-44111102
SPRINT26.326
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-44000004
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.818
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
0-44000003
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT27.969
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-33000000
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT28.790
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-33000001
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
0-33000001
Team4-31311411012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. FittsR. Fitts★SP
3.1644042
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.2100120
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
2.0000120
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0000000
Team8.0744282
PHI

PHI

58-43

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
2-44120001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44111101
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-33110011
SPRINT2744
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.148
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-44000002
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-33000002
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
1-33010000
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
1-22111110
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-33000000
Team7-3030473228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
9.04110121
Team9.04110121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • R. Fitts
    65 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      42%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·87.3 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      20%·83.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    35 pitches·29% CSW
    • CU
      34%·75.6 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      34%·93.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·79.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      3%·84.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    29 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      48%·91.1 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      28%·80.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • G. Weissert
    14 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·83.2 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    106 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      43%·95.7 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      42%·86.6 mph·64% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.8 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

7

1

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Jul 21BOSBOS2@PHIPHI3
Jul 22BOSBOS1@PHIPHI4today
Jul 23BOSBOS9@PHIPHI8

Season series

PHI leads series 2-0

Jul 21BOSBOS2@PHIPHI3
Jul 22BOSBOS1@PHIPHI4today
Jul 23BOSBOS9@PHIPHI8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 1st Inning

BOSBOS
R. Refsnyder

R. Refsnyder

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

R. Fitts

R. Fitts

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H

PHIPHI
M. Kepler

M. Kepler

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

9.0 IP · 12 K · 1 ER · 4 H

How it ended

PHI beat BOS 4-1.

Win probability

PHI vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 83% WP

Marsh · reached first base on catcher's interference, Harper to home, Castellanos to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0001000001
PHI22000000—4

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · PHI won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Castellanos 1

0
2

Inn 2

Kepler 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Refsnyder 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
PHI

Play-by-play · 491 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  2. T9

    González struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  6. T9

    Cristopher Sanchez pitches to Romy Gonzalez

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  7. T9

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  8. T9

    Bregman lined out to third.

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

    +1pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  11. T9

    Cristopher Sanchez pitches to Alex Bregman

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  12. T9

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  13. T9

    Anthony struck out looking.

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

    +2pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  19. T9

    Cristopher Sanchez pitches to Roman Anthony

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  20. T9

    Sosa at third base.

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  23. B8

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  24. B8

    Kemp grounded out to second.

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  25. B8

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  27. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 4

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

1

Runs

4

4

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

7

TB

13

1

HR

2

0

BB

2

12

K

8

6

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Caleb DurbinBOS
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.6± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    53.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.3%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.