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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
ARI

ARI

51-53

1
0
PIT

PIT

42-62

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
21,296 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 1 · PIT 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
ARI000000000011
PIT000000000000

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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MLB·Fri, Jul 25·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham

LF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
ARI51-53
1
0
PIT42-62
ARI51-53·PIT42-62
ARI

ARI

51-53

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-55110000
SPRINT29.496
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-22000031
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-44000010
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44001001
SPRINT25.818
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-55010001
SPRINT26.326
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT25.818
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.698
T. EnglishT. English★OF
0-33000002
J. HerreraJ. Herrera★C
0-33000002
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-11000001
Team5-35351510410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
6.0100240
A. DeSclafaniA. DeSclafaniRP
4.0000230
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0000000
Team11.0100470
PIT

PIT

42-62

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-33000021
SPRINT24.85
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-55000000
SPRINT27.662
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-55000001
SPRINT27.969
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-55000002
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-33000011
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
1-33010010
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-44000001
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-11000000
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-44000001
Team1-3333010047
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BurrowsM. Burrows★SP
6.0300150
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0200010
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000210
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000010
B. AshcraftB. AshcraftSP
2.0010120
Team11.05104100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • R. Nelson
    88 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      61%·95.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.1 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      9%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. DeSclafani
    50 pitches·30% CSW
    • KC
      26%·83.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      24%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      22%·84.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      22%·89.1 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      83%·95.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.8 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • M. Burrows
    86 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.4 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      22%·87.7 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      12%·78.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.8 mph·67% whiff
  • D. Santana
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      52%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·91.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Ashcraft
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.7 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      29%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·92.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.1 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      19%·83.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      29%·76.1 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      29%·91.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

1

1

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Jul 25ARIARI1@PITPIT0today
Jul 26ARIARI0@PITPIT2
Jul 27ARIARI0@PITPIT6

Season series

Series tied 2-2

May 27PITPIT0@ARIARI5
May 28PITPIT9@ARIARI6
May 28PITPIT10@ARIARI1
Jul 25ARIARI1@PITPIT0today
Jul 26ARIARI0@PITPIT2
Jul 27ARIARI0@PITPIT6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 39pp · Bottom 11th Inning

ARIARI
L. Gurriel Jr.

L. Gurriel Jr.

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
T. Pham

T. Pham

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

M. Burrows

M. Burrows

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ARI beat PIT 1-0. Reynolds's play in the bottom 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (39pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

PIT vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 10th Inning · 0-0
+15pp→ 66% WP

Barrosa · struck out swinging.

ARIBottom 10th Inning · 0-0
+19pp→ 37% WP

Kiner-Falefa · flied out to right.

ARIBottom 11th Inning · 1-0
+39pp→ 84% WP

Reynolds · lined out to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
ARI000000000011
PIT000000000000

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · PIT won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

1
0

Inn 11

ARI
PIT

Play-by-play · 609 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  2. B11

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  3. B11

    N. Gonzales grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

    −16pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  5. B11

    Kevin Ginkel pitches to Nick Gonzales

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  6. B11

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  7. B11

    Reynolds lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

    −39pp

  8. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  9. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  10. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  11. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  12. B11

    Kevin Ginkel pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  13. B11

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  14. B11

    McCutchen flied out to center, Peguero to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

    +8pp

  15. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  16. B11

    Kevin Ginkel pitches to Andrew McCutchen

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  17. B11

    Ginkel relieved DeSclafani

    ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  18. B11

    Peguero ran for Horwitz

    ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  19. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  20. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  21. T11

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  22. T11

    Del Castillo struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

    +4pp

  23. T11

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  24. T11

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  25. T11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  26. T11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  27. T11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  28. T11

    Braxton Ashcraft pitches to Adrian Del Castillo

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  29. T11

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

  30. T11

    Suárez hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 1·PIT 0

    −8pp

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

1

Runs

0

5

Hits

1

0

Errors

0

5

TB

3

0

HR

0

4

BB

4

10

K

7

17

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PIT vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.7± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.5%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    50.9%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.2%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.1%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 97
    290
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    290
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    232
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 93
    232
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 93
    231
    24(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 92
    302
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
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