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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3MIA
MIA

MIA

50-53

7
4
MIL

MIL

61-43

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
38,055 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 7 · MIL 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0011320007
MIL0102000014

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 27, 25sim 94
    177
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    77
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 92
    75
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 92
    135
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 92
    77
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 92
    285
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 7–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Dane Myers

Dane Myers

CF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Andrew Vaughn

Andrew Vaughn

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA50-53
7
4
MIL61-43
MIA50-53·MIL61-43
MIA

MIA

50-53

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
3-55130000
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-55111101
SPRINT27.354
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-44000011
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-33113111
SPRINT28.483
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
1-44010001
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
2-44120000
SPRINT2622
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
2-33222111
SPRINT2744
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
0-44000001
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-44111000
Team11-36367117336
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunkJ. Junk★SP
5.0833050
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
4.0311041
Team9.01144091
MIL

MIL

61-43

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-44010001
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44010000
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-44120001
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-44000002
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
2-44221101
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
2-44121001
SPRINT27.867
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44011002
SPRINT28.586
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT28.175
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-33000000
A. SeiglerA. Seigler2B
0-11000001
Team11-36364114109
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. QuintanaJ. Quintana★SP
5.0752222
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.0322021
D. HallD. HallRP
2.0000120
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0100000
Team9.01174363

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • J. Junk
    86 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.3 mph·19% whiff
    • ST
      28%·82.5 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.5 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·87.1 mph·67% whiff
  • T. Phillips
    45 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      47%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      22%·83.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      16%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      2%·90.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      2%·93.9 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • J. Quintana
    99 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      57%·90.8 mph·4% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·78.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      8%·90.7 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Hall
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      30%·94.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      23%·82.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      23%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      32%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      53%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

11

7

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Jul 25MIAMIA5@MILMIL1
Jul 26MIAMIA7@MILMIL4today
Jul 27MIAMIA2@MILMIL3

Season series

MIA leads series 3-2

Jul 4MILMIL6@MIAMIA5
Jul 5MILMIL2@MIAMIA4
Jul 6MILMIL3@MIAMIA1
Jul 25MIAMIA5@MILMIL1
Jul 26MIAMIA7@MILMIL4today
Jul 27MIAMIA2@MILMIL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 37pp · Top 5th Inning

MIAMIA
D. Myers

D. Myers

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 8 H

MILMIL
A. Vaughn

A. Vaughn

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Quintana

J. Quintana

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIA beat MIL 7-4. Hern's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 4th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 50% WP

Ram · írez homered to right (372 feet).

MILBottom 4th Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 65% WP

Collins · doubled to center, Chourio scored.

MIATop 5th Inning · 5-3
+37pp→ 64% WP

Hern · ández homered to left center (385 feet), Sanoja scored and Edwards scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0011320007
MIL0102000014

Period scoring

MIA won 3 · MIL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Durbin 1

1
0

Inn 3

Sanoja 1

1
2

Inn 4

Ram 1

Collins 1

3
0

Inn 5

Hern 3

2
0

Inn 6

Myers 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Vaughn 1

MIA
MIL

Play-by-play · 576 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  3. B9

    Seigler struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  9. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Anthony Seigler

    · ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  10. B9

    Seigler hit for Ortiz

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  11. B9

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  12. B9

    Durbin singled to center.

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

    +0.8pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  14. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Caleb Durbin

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  15. B9

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  16. B9

    Turang lined out to center.

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

    −1pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  19. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Brice Turang

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  20. B9

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  21. B9

    Collins struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

    −2pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  28. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Isaac Collins

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  29. B9

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

  30. B9

    Vaughn homered to center (409 feet).

    ·

    MIA 7·MIL 4

    +2pp

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

7

Runs

4

11

Hits

11

0

Errors

1

22

TB

18

3

HR

1

3

BB

0

6

K

9

12

LOB

11

Player projections

MIL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.7± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    61.9%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.1%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.9%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175