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FINAL+1ARI
PHI

PHI

92-63

3
4
ARI

ARI

78-77

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
35,498 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

PHI 3 · ARI 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI2001000003
ARI101002004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 20·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Philadelphia Phillies, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Alec Bohm

Alec Bohm

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy

LF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI92-63
3
4
ARI78-77
PHI92-63·ARI78-77
PHI

PHI

92-63

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-44100011
SPRINT27.662
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-44121001
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000000
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-33011000
SPRINT28.381
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-44000003
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-44121100
SPRINT26.632
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
0-44000003
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-44000002
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-33020010
SPRINT28.688
Team7-34343731210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. NolaA. Nola★SP
5.1744240
T. BanksT. BanksRP
0.2200120
L. TrivinoL. TrivinoRP
1.0100010
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0100000
Team8.01144370
ARI

ARI

78-77

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-33110010
SPRINT26.838
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-55011001
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-55011001
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-44010000
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-44110002
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
1-33111001
SPRINT25.29
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-00000020
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
2-44021000
SPRINT26.941
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
3-44130001
SPRINT29.698
T. TawaT. TawaLF
0-11000001
AA. Del CastilloDH
0-11000000
Team11-34344114037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
7.0433291
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
0.2200010
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.1000000
J. CurtissJ. CurtissRP
1.0100000
Team9.07332101

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

11

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Sep 20PHIPHI8@ARIARI2
Sep 21PHIPHI3@ARIARI4today
Sep 21PHIPHI2@ARIARI9

Season series

PHI leads series 3-2

May 2ARIARI2@PHIPHI3
May 3ARIARI2@PHIPHI7
May 4ARIARI11@PHIPHI9
Sep 20PHIPHI8@ARIARI2
Sep 21PHIPHI3@ARIARI4today
Sep 21PHIPHI2@ARIARI9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 6th Inning

PHIPHI
A. Bohm

A. Bohm

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

A. Nola

A. Nola

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

ARIARI
J. McCarthy

J. McCarthy

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat PHI 4-3.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 6th Inning · 3-3
+16pp→ 61% WP

McCann · doubled to center, Alexander scored.

PHITop 8th Inning · 3-4
+14pp→ 38% WP

Schwarber · singled to right.

ARITop 8th Inning · 3-4
+16pp→ 76% WP

Marsh · struck out looking.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI2001000003
ARI10100200—4

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

3

Runs

4

7

Hits

11

1

Errors

1

12

TB

15

1

HR

0

2

BB

3

10

K

7

14

LOB

19

Win probability

ARI vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · ARI won 2

2
1

Inn 1

Schwarber 1

Carroll 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Marte 1

1
0

Inn 4

Bohm 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

McCann 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PHI
ARI

Play-by-play · 554 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  2. T9

    Bader grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stott out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

    +8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  4. T9

    John Curtiss pitches to Harrison Bader

    · ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  5. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  6. T9

    Stott singled to left.

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

    −4pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  14. T9

    John Curtiss pitches to Bryson Stott

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  15. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  16. T9

    Kemp flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

    +6pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  20. T9

    John Curtiss pitches to Otto Kemp

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  21. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  22. T9

    Kepler grounded out to first.

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

    +4pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  29. T9

    John Curtiss pitches to Max Kepler

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

  30. T9

    Curtiss relieved Thompson

    ·

    PHI 3·ARI 4

Player projections

ARI vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.4high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    2.7± 2.5high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.0± 1.3high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Ildemaro VargasARI
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    43.5%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.0%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.1%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    80
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 95
    85
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 95
    84
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 94
    228
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 93
    222
    29(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 93
    146
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs