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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BOS
BOS

BOS

55-49

9
8
PHI

PHI

58-44

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
42,601 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 9 · PHI 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
BOS000060000129
PHI301100010118

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 25, 25sim 97
    2212
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 94
    127
    22(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 91
    186
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 90
    214
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 90
    63
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 90
    67
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 9–8. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Carlos Narvaez

Carlos Narvaez

C

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Johan Rojas

Johan Rojas

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
BOS55-49
9
8
PHI58-44
BOS55-49·PHI58-44
BOS

BOS

55-49

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-11101020
SPRINT26.326
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-55201014
SPRINT29.294
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
1-44114101
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-55011002
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-55110002
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44210011
SPRINT28.790
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-55000003
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
2-55122100
SPRINT257
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-11100011
R. AnthonyR. AnthonyLF
1-22010011
A. BregmanA. Bregman3B
0-11000000
A. ToroA. Toro1B
0-22000001
Team7-40409792616
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GiolitoL. Giolito★SP
4.0655124
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
2.0100010
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
0.2100000
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.1111011
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0000000
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0110010
J. AlcalaJ. AlcalaRP
0.2110010
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
0.1000010
Team11.01186175
PHI

PHI

58-44

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
2-55120001
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-55123100
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-55211101
SPRINT2744
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-55111102
SPRINT27.148
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-55121101
SPRINT28.381
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-22000010
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
0-55000001
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-44000000
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-44221100
SPRINT28.688
O. KempO. KempLF
0-11000001
J. RojasJ. RojasCF
1-11011000
Team11-42428118517
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
5.0266571
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
1.0000020
D. RobertD. RobertRP
0.1100100
T. BanksT. BanksRP
0.2000010
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0100010
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0000020
M. LazarM. LazarRP
1.0110000
S. JohnsonS. JohnsonSP
1.0221031
Team11.07976162

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • L. Giolito
    57 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·86.2 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      12%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·77.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wilson
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      50%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      42%·95.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      8%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alcala
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CU
      33%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·98.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·98.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.4 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      50%·99.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·99.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·91.2 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      85%·100.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·92.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      46%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      22%·82.3 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      83%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·79.0 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    88 pitches·28% CSW
    • ST
      41%·86.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      24%·97.6 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      18%·88.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      16%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·86.6 mph·— whiff
  • S. Johnson
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      54%·97.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      27%·89.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      15%·77.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      4%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      42%·82.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      37%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      60%·87.5 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      27%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      57%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      29%·80.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      14%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romano
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      67%·86.3 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Robert
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • FC
      45%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Banks
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      44%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

11

9

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Jul 21BOSBOS2@PHIPHI3
Jul 22BOSBOS1@PHIPHI4
Jul 23BOSBOS9@PHIPHI8today

Season series

PHI wins series 2-1

Jul 21BOSBOS2@PHIPHI3
Jul 22BOSBOS1@PHIPHI4
Jul 23BOSBOS9@PHIPHI8today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 45pp · Top 11th Inning

BOSBOS
C. Narvaez

C. Narvaez

C

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

L. Giolito

L. Giolito

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
J. Rojas

J. Rojas

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 2 H · 5 BB

How it ended

BOS beat PHI 9-8. Narv's play in the top 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

PHI vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 5th Inning · 6-5
+39pp→ 57% WP

Gonz · ález homered to left center (415 feet), Mayer scored, Refsnyder scored and Duran scored.

PHIBottom 8th Inning · 6-6
+33pp→ 53% WP

Realmuto · homered to center (410 feet).

BOSTop 11th Inning · 9-7
+45pp→ 81% WP

Narv · áez homered to left center (370 feet), Rafaela scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
BOS000060000129
PHI301100010118

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · PHI won 4

0
3

Inn 1

Schwarber 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Castellanos 1

0
1

Inn 4

Stott 1

6
0

Inn 5

Gonz 4

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Realmuto 1

0
0

Inn 9

1
1

Inn 10

Story 1

Schwarber 1

2
1

Inn 11

Narv 2

Rojas 1

BOS
PHI

Play-by-play · 690 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  2. B11

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  3. B11

    Kepler struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

    −9pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  5. B11

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  6. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  7. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  8. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  9. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  10. B11

    Brennan Bernardino pitches to Max Kepler

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  11. B11

    Bernardino relieved Alcala

    ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  12. B11

    ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  13. B11

    Rojas singled to left, Harper scored.

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

    +5pp

  14. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  15. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  16. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  17. B11

    Jorge Alcala pitches to Johan Rojas

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 8

  18. B11

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  19. B11

    Realmuto struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

    −8pp

  20. B11

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  21. B11

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  22. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  23. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  24. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  25. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  26. B11

    Harper to third on a disengagement violation.

    ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  27. B11

    Harper to third on a disengagement violation.

    ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  28. B11

    Jorge Alcala pitches to J.T. Realmuto

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  29. B11

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

  30. B11

    Castellanos grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 9·PHI 7

    −10pp

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

9

Runs

8

7

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

17

TB

28

2

HR

5

6

BB

1

16

K

7

20

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    54.2%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.6%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.8%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.