MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3ATH

ATH

43-62

HOU

60-43

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

32,386 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
67.6%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.3%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
66.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.2± 2.5low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.9medium

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.2± 0.8high
Zack GelofATH
1.2± 0.5high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.5± 2.5high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.9high

RBIs

Tyler SoderstromATH
0.9± 1.3high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 2.2high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 1.8medium
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

HOU

.747

OPS

◀

.717

.729

.330

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.51

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.56

4.85

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.91

1.44

WHIP

1.31

1.44

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 5 · HOU 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	1	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. SchuemannSS	.248	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
N. Kurtz1B	.288	5	0	3	1	0	0	0
B. RookerDH	.275	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
T. SoderstromLF	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. LangeliersC	.242	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
L. ButlerRF	.238	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. CortesRF	.250	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
G. Urshela3B	.235	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
L. Urias2B	.238	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.285	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	5	12	5	1	3	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.248

.288

.275

.256

.242

.238

.250

.235

.238

.285

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. SeverinoSP	7.0	4	2	2	0	8	91
M. KellyRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	13
M. MillerRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	23
Team	9.0	6	2	2	1	9	127

Player

L. SeverinoSP

7.0

M. KellyRP

0.2

M. MillerRP

1.1

Team

9.0

127

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. TrammellCF	.260	4	0	3	0	0	0	1
J. Altuve2B	.281	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.270	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.235	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.263	3	0	0	1	0	1	2
J. Singleton1B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. DubonSS	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MatthewsCF	.185	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Z. ShortSS	.235	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. DiazC	.246	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Whitcomb3B	.115	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	6	2	0	1	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. AlexanderRP	6.0	11	5	5	2	3	96
H. NerisRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	25
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
Team	9.0	12	5	5	3	5	137

Team

ATH

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.