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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BAL
TOR

TOR

63-46

2
3
BAL

BAL

50-58

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
14,929 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

TOR 2 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0101000002
BAL000200013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 26, 25sim 97
    25
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 96
    183
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    23
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    184
    29(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    160
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 95
    26
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 29·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Toronto Blue Jays, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Tyler Heineman

Tyler Heineman

C

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Ramon Laureano

Ramon Laureano

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR63-46
2
3
BAL50-58
TOR63-46·BAL50-58
TOR

TOR

63-46

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-44001011
SPRINT27.148
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-55000003
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-33000011
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
2-44020001
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-22010010
SPRINT26.838
W. WagnerW. Wagner★3B
0-44000002
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-33220001
SPRINT27.354
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
3-33030010
SPRINT25.513
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-22001000
Team8-3030282059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. LauerE. Lauer★SP
5.0522140
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.0000100
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000020
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0211010
Team8.0733270
BAL

BAL

50-58

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-44010001
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-44000001
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-44011000
SPRINT26.632
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
2-22120010
SPRINT2872
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44111001
SPRINT26.735
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-44011001
SPRINT26.735
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-11000010
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
0-22000001
C. CowserC. CowserCF
0-11000001
Team7-3030373027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. YoungB. Young★SP
6.0622260
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0100100
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0100110
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0000120
Team9.0822590

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 4-2

Apr 11TORTOR0@BALBAL0
Apr 12TORTOR4@BALBAL5
Apr 13TORTOR7@BALBAL6
Jul 28TORTOR4@BALBAL11
Jul 29TORTOR4@BALBAL16
Jul 29TORTOR2@BALBAL3today
Jul 30TORTOR9@BALBAL8

Season series

BAL leads series 6-3

Mar 27BALBAL12@TORTOR2
Mar 28BALBAL2@TORTOR8
Mar 29BALBAL9@TORTOR5
Mar 30BALBAL1@TORTOR3
Apr 11TORTOR0@BALBAL0
Apr 12TORTOR4@BALBAL5
Apr 13TORTOR7@BALBAL6
Jul 28TORTOR4@BALBAL11
Jul 29TORTOR4@BALBAL16
Jul 29TORTOR2@BALBAL3today
Jul 30TORTOR9@BALBAL8
Sep 12BALBAL1@TORTOR6
Sep 13BALBAL4@TORTOR5
Sep 14BALBAL2@TORTOR11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 9th Inning

TORTOR
T. Heineman

T. Heineman

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

BALBAL
R. Laureano

R. Laureano

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

B. Young

B. Young

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat TOR 3-2. Lukes's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Win probability

BAL vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 8th Inning · 2-2
+18pp→ 64% WP

Wagner · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Loperfido out at second.

BALBottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+21pp→ 89% WP

Rutschman · doubled to right, Henderson scored.

BALTop 9th Inning · 2-3
+26pp→ 80% WP

Lukes · struck out looking.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0101000002
BAL00020001—3

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · BAL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Lukes 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
2

Inn 4

Straw 1

O'Hearn 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Rutschman 1

0

Inn 9

TOR
BAL

Play-by-play · 540 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  2. T9

    Bichette struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

    +20pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  9. T9

    Corbin Martin pitches to Bo Bichette

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  10. T9

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  11. T9

    Lukes struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

    +26pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  17. T9

    Corbin Martin pitches to Nathan Lukes

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  18. T9

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  19. T9

    Straw hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Jiménez to second, Clement to third.

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

    −3pp

  20. T9

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  23. T9

    Corbin Martin pitches to Myles Straw

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  24. T9

    Jiménez ran for Heineman

    ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  25. T9

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  26. T9

    Heineman walked, Clement to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

    −16pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·BAL 3

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

2

Runs

3

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

9

TB

11

0

HR

0

5

BB

2

9

K

7

17

LOB

12

Player projections

BAL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    44.8%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.3%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872