WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+11WSH

WSH

1-1

8372

ATL

1-1

WNBASun, May 3FinalSeriesATL leads series 1-0VegasATL -6.5

WSH · top performer

Lauren Betts

C · #51

13.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Holly Winterburn

G · #7

8.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 27.8

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. IriafenF · #44	16	11	3-6	1-1	4-5	+2	4	1
L. BettsC · #51	26	17	7-12	—	3-4	+4	4	3
S. CitronG · #22	19	6	2-5	—	2-2	+11	2	3
C. McMahonG · #23	27	9	2-4	—	5-7	+10	1	1
G. AmooreG · #8	17	8	3-7	2-4	—	+6	1	2
Bench
A. DugalicF · #32	20	7	3-7	1-4	—	+4	6	2
C. IwualaF · #7	3	2	1-3	—	—	+2	1	1
M. ScottG · #24	5	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	0
R. HarmonG · #3	18	6	3-6	0-3	0-2	+6	0	4
L. OlsenG · #33	16	9	3-4	—	3-4	+1	2	2
D. Littlepage-BuggsG · #5	14	5	2-3	1-1	—	+4	2	1
C. ProsperG · #18	19	3	1-3	0-1	1-2	+7	3	0
Team		83	30-61	5-14	18-26		26	20

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	1	1
A. ReeseF · #5	11	10	3-7	—	4-6	-9	4	0
A. GrayG · #15	10	3	1-3	0-1	1-2	+3	1	0
J. CanadaG · #3	9	3	1-3	1-2	0-1	-4	0	1
R. HowardG · #10	13	2	0-5	0-5	2-2	-6	0	3
Bench
S. JonesF · #24	20	3	0-2	0-1	3-4	-12	6	1
T. ThierryF · #4	13	7	2-5	2-4	1-2	-10	4	1
S. KoneF · #23	11	4	2-4	0-1	—	+1	2	0
M. OkotC · #11	21	9	3-6	1-3	2-4	+3	6	1
M. CazorlaG · #12	22	5	1-2	0-1	3-4	+1	4	4
T. PaopaoG · #2	9	8	3-4	2-2	—	-8	2	0
H. WinterburnG · #7	22	12	4-9	0-5	4-4	-5	2	2
I. NivarG · #21	14	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	+3	2	0
I. BorlaseG · #20	14	2	1-4	0-2	—	-7	1	2
Team		72	22-58	6-29	22-31		35	16

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

30-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

22-58

FG %

5-14

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-29

18-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Jun 6

WSH77@

ATL109

Jul 2

ATL@

WSHupcoming

Aug 7

ATL@

WSHupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

162.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+23530%

ATL-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -6.5↗SpreadBet ATL -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

162.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat ATL 83-72. L. Betts led with 17 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST. WSH outscored the other side 22-11 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 40

Bench(7)

32 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST

GS 24

ATLstarters 25% of pts

Starters(5)

18 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST

GS 9

Bench(9)

54 PTS · 29 REB · 11 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL2nd Quarter · 9:02 · 20-23

+7pp→ 59% WP

Kiki Iriafen · blocks Angel Reese 's 3-foot layup

ATL2nd Quarter · 27.8 · 42-42

+8pp→ 47% WP

Taylor Thierry · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isobel Borlase assists)

WSH3rd Quarter · 6:47 · 50-48

+8pp→ 61% WP

Stephanie Jones · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	20	24	22	17	83
ATL	23	19	11	19	72

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · ATL won 2

Betts 9

Reese 8

Betts 6

Okot 7

Iriafen 5

Thierry 3

McMahon 9

Winterburn 10

WSH

ATL

Shooting comparison

WSH

ATL

49%

30-61

38%

22-58

36%

5-14

3PT

21%

6-29

69%

18-26

71%

22-31

Play-by-play · 441 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 83·ATL 72
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 83·ATL 72
Q4·0.6
Dream offensive team rebound
WSH 83·ATL 72
Q4·1.6
Holly Winterburn misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 83·ATL 72
Q4·11.2
Taylor Thierry defensive rebound
WSH 83·ATL 72
Q4·15.8
Christeen Iwuala misses layup
WSH 83·ATL 72
Q4·37.6
Holly Winterburn makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 83·ATL 72
Q4·37.6
Holly Winterburn makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 83·ATL 71
Q4·37.6
Christeen Iwuala personal foul
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·42.8
Stephanie Jones defensive rebound
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·46.6
Christeen Iwuala misses two point shot
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·49.9
Christeen Iwuala offensive rebound
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·51.0
Madison Scott misses two point shot
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·1:03
shot clock turnover
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·1:03
Dream offensive team rebound
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·1:04
Maite Cazorla misses 24-foot three point jumper
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·1:27
Indya Nivar enters the game for Isobel Borlase
·
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·1:27
Darianna Littlepage-Buggs enters the game for Cotie McMahon
·
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·1:27
Madison Scott out of bounds lost ball turnover
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·1:31
Stephanie Jones lost ball turnover (Madison Scott steals)
·
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·1:43
Christeen Iwuala makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Lucy Olsen assists)
·
WSH 83·ATL 70
Q4·1:49
Lucy Olsen defensive rebound
WSH 81·ATL 70
Q4·1:52
Isobel Borlase misses 24-foot three point jumper
WSH 81·ATL 70
−0.5pp
Q4·2:16
Cotie McMahon makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 81·ATL 70
Q4·2:16
Lucy Olsen enters the game for Rori Harmon
·
WSH 80·ATL 70
Q4·2:16
Cotie McMahon makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 80·ATL 70
Q4·2:16
Holly Winterburn personal foul
WSH 79·ATL 70
−0.9pp
Q4·2:25
Isobel Borlase lost ball turnover (Cassandre Prosper steals)
·
WSH 79·ATL 70
−2pp
Q4·2:31
Taylor Thierry defensive rebound
WSH 79·ATL 70
Q4·2:35
Cotie McMahon misses free throw 1 of 1
WSH 79·ATL 70
+2pp

Betting line

ATL -6.5·O/U 162.5·WSH +235/ATL -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ashington Mystics went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 83–72.

WSH +6.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 162.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

WSH

ATL

eFG%

shooting

53.3%

43.1%

TOV%

ball control

18.1%

22.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

20.7%

37.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

29.5%

37.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Kiki IriafenWSH · F
DRB%.30197
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288
Sonia CitronWSH · G
TS%.63984

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.4%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Rhyne HowardATL
18.5± 9.4medium
Allisha GrayATL
18.2± 5.8medium
Sonia CitronWSH
16.6± 6.2medium

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
11.8± 4.2medium
Shakira AustinWSH
8.1± 3.7low
Kiki IriafenWSH
7.7± 4.9low

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
6.8± 3.0medium
Sonia CitronWSH
4.0± 2.7medium
Georgia AmooreWSH
3.8± 3.0medium

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.2± 1.2low
Rhyne HowardATL
0.8± 1.1medium
Angel ReeseATL
0.7± 0.8medium

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.9± 2.1medium
Jordin CanadaATL
1.9± 1.8medium
Allisha GrayATL
1.6± 1.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

WSH

league avg

ATL

45.0%

FG%

44.7

44.7%

29.9%

3PT %

33.5

▶

34.2%

82.3

PPG

85.9

▶

90.2

18.9

Assists / G

18.0

▶

20.3

15.7

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

12.5

Data via ESPN · wehoop