WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+10LA

2-0

8575

POR

0-2

WNBASun, May 3FinalSeriesLA leads series 1-0VegasLA -8.5

LA · top performer

Nneka Ogwumike

F · #3

17.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Nyadiew Puoch

F · #13

11.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLA ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 7:19

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #3	20	17	5-9	2-3	5-7	+21	4	5
D. HambyF · #5	19	13	4-5	—	5-6	+16	4	2
K. PlumG · #10	18	13	3-7	2-2	5-5	+21	1	4
A. AtkinsG · #7	17	4	1-4	1-2	1-2	+16	2	3
R. BurrellG · #12	18	4	2-5	0-2	—	+24	2	0
Bench
E. CannonF · #32	8	3	1-2	1-2	—	-4	1	1
C. BrinkF · #22	12	0	0-2	0-1	—	0	4	0
S. FeaginF · #20	10	8	2-3	—	4-4	-5	3	0
JihyunF · #6	10	2	1-3	0-2	—	-2	2	0
L. ZieglerF · #4	10	0	0-3	0-3	—	-8	1	0
E. WheelerG · #17	11	6	2-5	2-5	—	-5	0	2
J. VanlooG · #35	9	0	0-2	0-2	—	-8	2	2
T. LatsonG · #0	14	7	2-5	0-2	3-6	+4	1	2
C. GrayG · #2	13	6	2-5	1-3	1-2	-12	2	1
S. UzunG · #1	10	2	1-4	0-2	—	-8	2	0
Team		85	26-64	9-31	24-32		31	22

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	25	9	3-8	1-5	2-4	-10	1	1
N. PuochF · #13	23	12	4-5	2-3	2-4	-12	1	2
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	21	7	2-6	0-2	3-3	-13	6	0
H. JonesG · #30	21	8	4-8	0-1	—	-20	3	2
C. LeiteG · #0	22	11	4-6	1-1	2-2	-8	1	3
Bench
C. BibbyF · #55	16	0	0-1	—	—	+12	1	0
F. BuhnerF · #20	21	5	1-6	0-3	3-4	0	1	0
S. WilliamsC · #25	19	12	3-6	—	6-8	+3	8	1
M. CaldwellG · #33	15	2	1-3	0-2	—	0	5	2
J. HarrisonG · #2	18	9	2-5	0-1	5-5	-2	3	4
Team		75	24-54	4-18	23-30		30	15
DNP: K. Smalls, E. Engstler, M. Gustafson, K. Samuelson, S. Sutton, S. Barker, T. Oblak

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

POR

Home

26-64

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

24-54

FG %

9-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-18

24-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LA leads series 1-0

Jun 7

POR72@

LA89

Aug 2

LA@

PORupcoming

Sep 20

POR@

LAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

172.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-36078%

POR+28526%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -8.5↗SpreadBet LA -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

+2.0 since open

Total

172.5

+4.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat POR 85-75. N. Ogwumike led with 17 PTS, 4 REB, 5 AST. LA outscored the other side 19-9 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs LA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LAstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 13 REB · 14 AST

GS 48

Bench(10)

34 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST

GS 10

PORstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 12 REB · 8 AST

GS 25

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

GS 15

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LA	19	29	24	13	85
POR	9	23	22	21	75

Period scoring

LA won 3 · POR won 1

Ogwumike 8

Jones 2

Plum 10

Puoch 6

Ogwumike 6

Leite 5

Gray 4

Williams 7

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

41%

26-64

44%

24-54

29%

9-31

3PT

22%

4-18

75%

24-32

77%

23-30

Play-by-play · 454 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 85·POR 75
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 85·POR 75
Q4·15.0
Frieda Bühner makes driving layup (Jordan Harrison assists)
·
LA 85·POR 75
Q4·35.4
Serah Williams defensive rebound
LA 85·POR 73
Q4·38.8
Sevgi Uzun misses 24-foot running jump shot
LA 85·POR 73
Q4·42.2
Chance Gray defensive rebound
LA 85·POR 73
Q4·46.1
Serah Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
LA 85·POR 73
Q4·46.1
Serah Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 85·POR 73
Q4·46.1
Laura Ziegler personal foul
LA 85·POR 72
Q4·53.4
Ta'Niya Latson lost ball turnover (Serah Williams steals)
·
LA 85·POR 72
Q4·1:18
Sparks defensive team rebound
LA 85·POR 72
Q4·1:21
Nyadiew Puoch misses 27-foot three point jumper
LA 85·POR 72
Q4·1:40
Ta'Niya Latson out of bounds bad pass turnover
LA 85·POR 72
Q4·1:58
Jordan Harrison makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 85·POR 72
Q4·1:58
Jordan Harrison makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 85·POR 71
Q4·1:58
Ta'Niya Latson personal foul
LA 85·POR 70
Q4·2:02
Fire offensive team rebound
LA 85·POR 70
Q4·2:02
Laura Ziegler blocks Frieda Bühner 's 3-foot running layup
·
LA 85·POR 70
Q4·2:07
Ta'Niya Latson bad pass turnover (Serah Williams steals)
·
LA 85·POR 70
Q4·2:21
Nyadiew Puoch makes running layup (Maya Caldwell assists)
·
LA 85·POR 70
Q4·2:24
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
LA 85·POR 68
Q4·2:27
Sevgi Uzun misses driving floating jump shot
LA 85·POR 68
Q4·2:40
Sania Feagin defensive rebound
LA 85·POR 68
Q4·2:43
Maya Caldwell misses 24-foot three point jumper
LA 85·POR 68
Q4·3:00
shot clock turnover
LA 85·POR 68
Q4·3:13
Jordan Harrison makes technical free throw
LA 85·POR 68
Q4·3:13
technical foul
LA 85·POR 67
Q4·3:13
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 85·POR 67
Q4·3:15
Chance Gray misses 26-foot three point jumper
LA 85·POR 67
Q4·3:25
(03:25) [Sparks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Sparks] retain their timeout
LA 85·POR 67

Betting line

LA -8.5·O/U 172.5·LA -360/POR +285

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

os Angeles Sparks went into Portland Fire and beat them, 85–75.

LA -8.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 172.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

eFG%

shooting

47.7%

48.1%

TOV%

ball control

20.4%

26.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

29.4%

22.2%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

37.5%

42.6%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Kelsey PlumLA · G
TS%.68699
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989
Dearica HambyLA · F
ORB%.10687
Nyadiew PuochPOR · F
ORB%.07482

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.4%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

POR vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Nneka OgwumikeLA
15.9± 6.5medium
Carla LeitePOR
13.6± 5.7medium

Rebounds

Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 4.8medium
Dearica HambyLA
7.8± 2.5medium
Emily EngstlerPOR
5.2± 3.4medium

Assists

Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Carla LeitePOR
5.9± 3.6medium
Erica WheelerLA
4.5± 2.5medium

Blocks

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.9± 0.9medium
Cameron BrinkLA
1.5± 0.8medium
Rae BurrellLA
0.9± 1.4medium

Steals

Ariel AtkinsLA
1.7± 1.6medium
Dearica HambyLA
1.4± 1.6medium
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.4± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

POR

46.1%

FG%

◀

44.7

44.6%

31.3%

3PT %

33.5

▶

34.1%

88.4

PPG

◀

85.9

82.2

20.3

Assists / G

◀

18.0

19.8

14.6

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop