Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces
SEA
4-15
LV
13-5
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
eattle Storm visit Las Vegas Aces Sunday at 9/20 - 9:00 PM EDT. LV is rolling — 7-2 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
LV
Home
42
FG %
49
Season series
LV leads series 1-0
SEA91@LV101LV@SEAupcomingSEA@LVtodayScouting report
SEA @ LV
Tale of the tape
4-15
Record
13-5
#8
Conf rank
#2
-6.2
Pt diff
+4.1
W1
Streak
W1
1-9
Last 10
8-2
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 45 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.7± 7.7medium
- Jackie YoungLV17.9± 6.3high
- Dominique MalongaSEA16.9± 13.4low
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.4± 3.8medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.3± 4.4low
- NaLyssa SmithLV6.4± 3.1high
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.6± 2.2high
- Jackie YoungLV6.9± 2.1high
- Natisha HiedemanSEA4.8± 2.4high
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.8± 2.0medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.1± 1.6low
- Awa FamSEA0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- A'ja WilsonLV1.6± 1.9medium
- Chelsea GrayLV1.3± 0.8high
- Jewell LoydLV1.3± 0.9medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
LV
41.9%
FG%
44.9
▶49.0%
33.7%
3PT %
33.4
▶36.3%
79.8
PPG
86.3
▶89.8
18.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.1
13.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.4