Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparks
POR
8-10
LA
8-9
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ortland Fire visit Los Angeles Sparks Sunday at 9/20 - 7:00 PM EDT. LA is 4-4 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
LA
Home
44
FG %
46
Season series
LA leads series 1-0
POR72@LA89LA@PORupcomingPOR@LAtodayScouting report
POR @ LA
Tale of the tape
8-11
Record
8-9
#6
Conf rank
#5
-8.0
Pt diff
-4.4
L2
Streak
L1
3-7
Last 10
4-6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 10 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA23.3± 15.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.1± 6.6medium
- Rae BurrellLA13.4± 8.2medium
Rebounds
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.0± 4.9medium
- Dearica HambyLA8.0± 2.5medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.5± 2.3high
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA6.6± 3.5low
- Carla LeitePOR6.1± 3.4medium
- Erica WheelerLA4.4± 2.1medium
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.7± 0.8high
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Rae BurrellLA0.9± 1.4medium
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.5medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.5± 1.1high
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
POR
league avg
LA
44.2%
FG%
44.9
▶45.9%
34.4%
3PT %
33.4
31.2%
82.0
PPG
86.3
▶88.9
19.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶20.2
14.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.2