Washington Mystics at Indiana Fever
WSH
8-8
IND
10-8
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Indiana Fever Sunday at 9/20 - 4:00 PM EDT. WSH is 4-5 in their last 9. IND is 5-4 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
IND
Home
45
FG %
47
Season series
Series tied 1-1
WSH104@IND102IND78@WSH76WSH@INDtodayScouting report
WSH @ IND
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
IND -17.0
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
IND
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
8-9
Record
10-8
#5
Conf rank
#3
-3.6
Pt diff
+2.8
L2
Streak
L1
5-5
Last 10
6-4
38.8
Power score
55.9
#10
Power rank
#6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 35 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND21.4± 4.9high
- Caitlin ClarkIND21.1± 6.1high
- Sonia CitronWSH17.6± 7.5medium
Rebounds
- Shakira AustinWSH9.1± 3.8medium
- Aliyah BostonIND9.0± 1.7medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH7.7± 4.5low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.9± 2.6high
- Sonia CitronWSH4.0± 2.6medium
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.9± 2.9medium
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.4medium
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.1medium
- Makayla TimpsonIND0.8± 1.0high
Steals
- Sonia CitronWSH1.3± 1.6medium
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 0.8medium
- Kelsey MitchellIND1.0± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
IND
44.9%
FG%
44.9
▶46.8%
30.0%
3PT %
33.4
▶35.2%
81.9
PPG
86.3
▶93.0
18.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
15.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶15.4