Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun
MIN
14-4
CON
3-15
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
innesota Lynx visit Connecticut Sun Sunday at 9/20 - 1:00 PM EDT. MIN is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
CON
Home
49
FG %
43
Season series
Series starts 7/6
CON@MINupcomingMIN@CONupcomingMIN@CONtodayScouting report
MIN @ CON
Tale of the tape
14-4
Record
4-15
#1
Conf rank
#7
+11.4
Pt diff
-7.3
W1
Streak
W2
8-2
Last 10
3-7
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 35 high confidence
Points
- Olivia MilesMIN19.7± 7.5high
- Natasha HowardMIN17.3± 6.4medium
- Courtney WilliamsMIN15.4± 6.6high
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.8± 5.3medium
- Natasha HowardMIN7.6± 3.9medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.9± 1.6high
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.3high
- Leila LacanCON4.5± 2.7low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN3.9± 1.6high
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.8± 1.7low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.6± 1.3high
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN2.1± 1.9medium
- Leila LacanCON2.0± 1.7low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.4± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
CON
49.4%
FG%
44.9
43.1%
38.1%
3PT %
33.4
26.3%
90.8
PPG
86.3
79.9
21.4
Assists / G
18.0
18.8
13.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6