Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury
WSH
8-7
PHX
5-12
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Phoenix Mercury Tuesday at 8/25 - 10:00 PM EDT. WSH arrives on a 3-game win streak (5-3 in their last 8).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
45
FG %
43
Season series
Series starts 8/9
PHX@WSHupcomingWSH@PHXtodayWSH@PHXupcomingScouting report
WSH @ PHX
Tale of the tape
8-7
Record
5-12
#4
Conf rank
#7
-3.2
Pt diff
-3.4
W3
Streak
W1
6-4
Last 10
3-7
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
46.4%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.3± 10.1medium
- Sonia CitronWSH16.6± 6.2medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH15.0± 9.3low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.3± 3.5medium
- Shakira AustinWSH8.1± 3.7low
- Kiki IriafenWSH7.7± 4.9low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.5± 2.7medium
- Sonia CitronWSH4.0± 2.7medium
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.8± 3.0medium
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.2medium
- Shakira AustinWSH1.2± 1.2low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.7± 1.3low
Steals
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.5± 1.4medium
- Sonia CitronWSH1.4± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
PHX
45.0%
FG%
44.7
42.7%
29.9%
3PT %
33.5
▶32.4%
82.3
PPG
85.9
82.5
18.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.4
15.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.4