Recent form
7-3
WSH +3.4 vs PHX -3.4 margin
WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury
WSH
WSH
22-15
PregameTue, 10:00 PM EDTAZ Family Sports Net, Merc+, WNBA League Pass
PHX
PHX
13-24
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Phoenix Mercury Tuesday at 8/25 - 10:00 PM EDT. WSH is 6-3 in their last 9.
Vegas opened WSH as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 166.5. PHX's moneyline implies a 45% break-even, WSH the inverse.
For bettors: the WSH side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 166.5 total reads near the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
45
FG %
44
Season series
WSH leads series 1-0
Aug 9PHX75@WSH95
PHX75@WSH95Aug 26WSH@PHXtoday
WSH@PHXtodayAug 28WSH@PHXupcoming
WSH@PHXupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
WSH -2.5
Between — and 5
1.0pt· 6.4h
Total
166.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
2.0pt· 6.4h
Moneyline
WSH-14259%PHX+12045%16· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
166.5
+1.0 since open
Scouting report
WSH @ PHX
Rest going in
PHX +1 day
WSHStandard
2 days
last game Aug 23
PHXLong rest
3 days
last game Aug 22
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
WSH -2.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
166.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
WSH -142
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
WSHmetricPHX
22-15
Record
13-24
#4
Conf rank
#6
-0.5
Pt diff
-3.8
W1
Streak
L2
7-3
Last 10
4-6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
WSH -2.5·O/U 166.5·WSH -142/PHX +120
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
PHX vs WSH.
PHX is 4-6 recently; WSH is 7-3.
41.3%
model · PHX win prob
Recent form
- PHX4–6-3.4
- WSH7–3+3.4
Situational
- PHX3d rest
- WSH2d rest
- +1.0d differential
PHX has 1 more rest day. PHX has 0 straight road games; WSH has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Kahleah CopperPHX20.6points · ±9.7
Kahleah Copper · 20.6 pts · last-10 20.7 vs season 20.4.
- Shakira AustinWSH20.0points · ±6.5
Shakira Austin · 20 pts · last-10 22 vs season 17.
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8points · ±3.3
Sonia Citron · 15.8 pts · last-10 15.6 vs season 16.2.
Head-to-head · 2-1 · last 3
PHX is 2-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-07-27PHX @ WSH88–72
- 2025-09-04PHX @ WSH75–69
- 2026-08-09PHX @ WSH75–95
Line move
open +110→+114toward WSH
The market has moved 0.9pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
41.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
45.5%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
43.9%
P(PHX win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
47.2%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.33 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 90 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX20.6± 9.7high
- Kelsey PlumPHX20.4± 12.3medium
- Shakira AustinWSH20.0± 6.5high
Rebounds
- Shakira AustinWSH9.8± 1.6high
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.3± 2.7high
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.9± 3.6high
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.6± 3.0high
- Kelsey PlumPHX5.3± 3.4medium
- Sonia CitronWSH4.7± 2.0high
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.3± 1.4high
- Lauren BettsWSH1.1± 1.2high
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2medium
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.4± 1.4high
- Noemie BrochantPHX1.0± 1.7high
- Sonia CitronWSH1.0± 0.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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