Washington Mystics at New York Liberty
WSH
5-7
NY
10-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit New York Liberty Friday at 6/19 - 7:30 PM EDT. WSH is 3-4 in their last 7. NY arrives on a 7-game win streak (7-0 in their last 7).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
NY leads series 2-0
NY98@WSH93WSH64@NY86WSH@NYtodayScouting report
WSH @ NY
Rest going in
4 days
last game Jun 14
4 days
last game Jun 14
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
NY -55.8
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
NY
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
5-7
Record
10-4
#5
Conf rank
#1
-5.3
Pt diff
+7.0
L1
Streak
W7
4-6
Last 10
7-3
40.4
Power score
96.2
#10
Power rank
#1
93.7
Sched ahead
52.4
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
NY
Home
44
FG %
46
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.8%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY18.7± 8.2medium
- Sonia CitronWSH15.6± 9.2low
- Kiki IriafenWSH14.5± 9.3low
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.4± 4.0medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.8± 2.2medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.7± 6.2low
Assists
- Pauline AstierNY3.9± 1.9medium
- Alicia FlorezWSH3.4± 3.4low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.4± 2.6low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.6medium
- Shakira AustinWSH1.4± 1.4low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 2.5medium
Steals
- Breanna StewartNY1.4± 1.6medium
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 0.8low
- Leonie FiebichNY1.0± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
NY
44.5%
FG%
44.3
▶45.9%
29.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
81.4
PPG
85.2
▶88.4
18.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
16.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.7