Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at TEX?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 18, 2026

FINAL+6MIN

MIN

36-40

TEX

35-39

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

30,606 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TEX no-vig %

46.9%

open 48.9% · -2.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
45.1%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.3%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.3%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.25

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-115

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

53.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at TEX?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.1pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

MIN

no live price

TEX

★ best

+1360DraftKings

edge +32.1pp · implied 11.0%

Book	MIN	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	-123	+1360★	+32.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TEX vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.4± 2.9medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 2.5medium
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.7low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
1.3± 1.1high
Josh BellMIN
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.9± 2.5high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.3± 2.3high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

Josh BellMIN
0.9± 0.9high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.7± 1.1high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.3± 3.6low
Jack LeiterTEX
3.2± 2.5medium
Connor PrielippMIN
3.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

TEX

.735

OPS

◀

.719

.704

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.317

4.92

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

4.83

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.96

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 9 · TEX 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	4	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	0	9
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.273	5	2	3	3	1	0	0
B. BuxtonCF	.270	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.250	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. Lewis3B	.199	5	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. BellDH	.244	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
B. LeeSS	.238	5	1	1	3	1	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.228	4	2	3	0	0	0	0
T. GraySS	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.252	2	1	2	0	0	2	0
K. FedkoLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.243	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
Team		39	9	13	9	3	3	8

Player

.273

.270

.250

.199

.244

.238

.228

.240

.252

.000

.243

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RyanSP	5.0	3	0	0	2	7	97
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	18
T. RogersRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	15
A. MorrisRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8
E. OrzeRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	12
C. LawerysonRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	17
Team	9.0	11	3	3	3	10	167

Player

5.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

167

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Jung3B	.301	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
W. LangfordLF	.244	4	1	2	1	1	1	2
B. NimmoRF	.256	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Duran2B	.278	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. Smith2B	.218	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Burger1B	.248	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
A. OsunaLF	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HigashiokaC	.235	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Foscue2B	.274	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
N. Lopez2B	.313	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Freeman3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	3	11	3	3	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LeiterSP	4.0	7	6	6	2	4	76
P. GrayRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
R. AhlstromRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	28
C. QuantrillRP	2.0	4	2	2	0	1	36
C. WinnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	13	9	9	3	8	159

Team

MIN

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TEX vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.