Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces
IND
9-5
LV
11-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ndiana Fever visit Las Vegas Aces Sunday at 7/5 - 7:00 PM EDT. IND arrives on a 4-game win streak (5-3 in their last 8). LV is rolling — 7-2 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
Series starts 7/5
IND@LVtodayIND@LVupcomingLV@INDupcomingScouting report
IND @ LV
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
LV -8.4
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
LV
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
9-5
Record
11-4
#3
Conf rank
#2
+4.9
Pt diff
+3.4
W4
Streak
W1
7-3
Last 10
7-3
62.2
Power score
70.5
#7
Power rank
#4
77.0
Sched ahead
75.4
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
LV
Home
45
FG %
48
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.8%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV26.3± 6.1medium
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.7± 4.7medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.0± 8.4medium
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV10.0± 4.7medium
- Aliyah BostonIND9.0± 4.0low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.4± 2.9medium
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.9± 3.2medium
- Chelsea GrayLV7.2± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV6.9± 3.1medium
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.2± 2.1medium
- Aliyah BostonIND1.3± 1.7low
- Cheyenne Parker-TyusLV0.9± 1.0low
Steals
- A'ja WilsonLV1.6± 1.6medium
- Chelsea GrayLV1.3± 1.0medium
- Jewell LoydLV1.2± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
LV
45.5%
FG%
44.5
▶48.3%
33.4%
3PT %
33.3
▶35.6%
91.6
PPG
85.5
89.9
21.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.5
15.1
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.7