New York Liberty at Golden State Valkyries
NY
11-4
GS
10-5
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ew York Liberty visit Golden State Valkyries Sunday at 6/28 - 7:00 PM EDT. NY arrives on a 7-game win streak (7-0 in their last 7). GS arrives on a 4-game win streak (6-3 in their last 9).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
GS leads series 1-0
GS87@NY70NY@GStodayGS@NYupcomingScouting report
NY @ GS
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
NY -28.1
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
NY
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
11-4
Record
10-5
#1
Conf rank
#3
+6.6
Pt diff
+6.7
W8
Streak
W4
8-2
Last 10
7-3
94.5
Power score
66.4
#1
Power rank
#5
51.0
Sched ahead
80.0
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
GS
Home
46
FG %
41
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY18.6± 8.2medium
- Gabby WilliamsGS17.3± 8.3medium
- Jonquel JonesNY14.6± 5.3medium
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.3± 4.0medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.6± 2.4medium
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.6± 3.4medium
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.4± 2.7medium
- Pauline AstierNY4.0± 1.8medium
- Sabrina IonescuNY3.4± 3.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.6± 1.6medium
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 2.5medium
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.5± 1.0medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.5medium
- Cecilia ZandalasiniGS1.1± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
GS
45.9%
FG%
44.4
40.6%
35.3%
3PT %
33.1
▶35.9%
88.4
PPG
85.3
84.6
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
18.9
14.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶9.8