New York Liberty at Seattle Storm
NY
11-4
SEA
3-13
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ew York Liberty visit Seattle Storm Thursday at 6/25 - 10:00 PM EDT. NY arrives on a 7-game win streak (7-0 in their last 7).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
Series starts 6/25
NY@SEAtodaySEA@NYupcomingSEA@NYupcomingScouting report
NY @ SEA
Tale of the tape
11-4
Record
3-13
#1
Conf rank
#8
+6.6
Pt diff
-6.6
W8
Streak
L9
8-2
Last 10
1-9
51.0
Sched ahead
80.0
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
46
FG %
41
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.6%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY18.6± 8.2medium
- Natisha HiedemanSEA15.7± 6.3medium
- Jonquel JonesNY14.6± 5.3medium
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.3± 4.0medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.6± 2.4medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.1± 3.7low
Assists
- Natisha HiedemanSEA4.4± 2.0medium
- Pauline AstierNY4.0± 1.8medium
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.5± 2.8medium
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 2.5medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.0± 1.4low
Steals
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.5medium
- Jordan HorstonSEA1.3± 1.7medium
- Natisha HiedemanSEA1.2± 1.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
SEA
45.9%
FG%
44.4
40.7%
35.3%
3PT %
33.1
33.1%
88.4
PPG
85.3
76.4
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
17.7
14.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.2