Sep 26, 25sim 96
1784
5(H)72
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5PHX
MIN
34-10
8186
PHX
27-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Minnesota Lynx, 86–81.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Kayla McBride
G · #21
23.6Game score
31
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
18.0Game score
23
Pts
8
Reb
10
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN34-10
8186
PHX27-17
MIN34-10PHX27-17
MIN
34-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 29 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -8 | |
| 27 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | |
| 38 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -5 | |
| 33 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 14 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| 21 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -8 | |
| Team | 81 | 34 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 6 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, C. Taylor, D. Carrington, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 6 | +6 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 11 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -13 | |
| 36 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +10 | |
| 32 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +17 | |
| 10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 27 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +16 | |
| Team | 86 | 38 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
43
19
Ast
20
Playoff series
PHX wins series 3-1
Sep 21PHX69@MIN82
PHX69@MIN82Sep 23PHX89@MIN83
PHX89@MIN83Sep 27MIN76@PHX84
MIN76@PHX84Sep 29MIN81@PHX86today
MIN81@PHX86todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 1:04
MINK. McBride
GGame leader · 38 min30+ point game
31 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 37 min
23 PTS · 8 REB · 10 AST
How it ended
PHX beat MIN 86-81. A. Thomas led with 23 PTS, 8 REB, 10 AST. PHX outscored the other side 31-13 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 94% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 25 REB · 12 AST
GS 62
Bench(3)
5 PTS · 9 REB · 7 AST
GS 1
PHXstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST
GS 43
Bench(3)
22 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN2nd Quarter · 1:01 · 38-33
+22pp→ 75% WP
Alanna Smith · makes 3-foot layup (Courtney Williams assists)
PHX4th Quarter · 3:39 · 70-72
+18pp→ 62% WP
DeWanna Bonner · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Satou Sabally assists)
MIN4th Quarter · 1:04 · 76-77
+22pp→ 32% WP
Kayla McBride · makes 28-foot three pointer
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 25 | 13 | 30 | 13 | 81 |
| PHX | 14 | 24 | 17 | 31 | 86 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · PHX won 2
25
14
Q1
Shepard 10
Sabally 8
13
24
Q2
Williams 4
Sabally 10
30
17
Q3
McBride 14
Copper 9
13
31
Q4
McBride 6
Bonner 11
MIN
PHX
Shooting comparison
MIN
PHX
42%
32-77
FG
43%
29-68
38%
9-24
3PT
39%
11-28
89%
8-9
FT
74%
17-23
Play-by-play · 386 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 81·PHX 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 81·PHX 86
- Q4·0.2
Lynx offensive team rebound
MIN 81·PHX 86
- Q4·0.2
Natisha Hiedeman misses 40-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 81·PHX 86
- Q4·4.4
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 81·PHX 86
- Q4·4.4
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 81·PHX 85
- Q4·4.4
Courtney Williams personal take foul
·
MIN 81·PHX 84
+0.9pp
- Q4·5.2
Mercury Full timeout
MIN 81·PHX 84
- Q4·5.2
Natisha Hiedeman makes 3-foot two point shot (Bridget Carleton assists)
·
MIN 81·PHX 84
- Q4·9.0
Lynx timeout
MIN 79·PHX 84
- Q4·9.0
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 79·PHX 84
- Q4·9.0
Mercury offensive team rebound
MIN 79·PHX 83
−0.6pp
- Q4·9.0
Sami Whitcomb misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 79·PHX 83
- Q4·9.0
Natisha Hiedeman personal foul
MIN 79·PHX 83
+1pp
- Q4·10.9
Courtney Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
· ·
MIN 79·PHX 83
−0.8pp
- Q4·19.7
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 76·PHX 83
- Q4·19.7
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 76·PHX 82
- Q4·19.7
Courtney Williams personal take foul
·
MIN 76·PHX 81
+0.5pp
- Q4·21.7
Mercury timeout
MIN 76·PHX 81
- Q4·21.7
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
MIN 76·PHX 81
+0.5pp
- Q4·23.8
Kayla McBride misses two point shot
MIN 76·PHX 81
+1pp
- Q4·27.0
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 76·PHX 81
- Q4·27.0
Alyssa Thomas makes driving layup (Sami Whitcomb assists)
·
MIN 76·PHX 81
+2pp
- Q4·30.6
Alanna Smith enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
MIN 76·PHX 79
- Q4·30.6
Mercury Full timeout
MIN 76·PHX 79
- Q4·30.6
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
MIN 76·PHX 79
+2pp
- Q4·32.1
Kayla McBride misses 30-foot three point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 79
+6pp
- Q4·42.3
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
MIN 76·PHX 79
- Q4·42.3
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 76·PHX 79
- Q4·42.3
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 76·PHX 79
−3pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
32-77
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-68
42
FG %
43
9-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-28
8-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-23
19
Assists
20
6
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
PHX
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9