WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PHX

MIN

34-10

8186

PHX

27-17

WNBASun, Sep 28FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-1

MIN · top performer

Kayla McBride

G · #21

23.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Alyssa Thomas

F · #25

18.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 1:04

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #15	36	14	6-11	0-1	2-2	+5	7	2
B. CarletonF · #6	29	3	1-2	1-1	—	-8	3	1
A. SmithF · #8	27	8	4-6	0-1	—	-1	8	1
K. McBrideG · #21	38	31	10-23	6-11	5-5	-5	4	2
C. WilliamsG · #10	33	20	9-22	2-6	—	+2	3	6
Bench
M. KliundikovaF · #77	14	2	1-6	0-2	—	-6	6	2
A. KosuF · #7	3	0	—	—	—	-4	1	1
N. HiedemanG · #2	21	3	1-7	0-2	1-2	-8	2	4
Team		81	32-77	9-24	8-9		34	19
DNP: N. Collier, C. Taylor, D. Carrington, J. Sherrod

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	37	23	11-18	—	1-3	+6	8	10
N. MackF · #4	11	4	1-4	—	2-2	-13	5	1
S. SaballyF · #0	36	21	6-11	3-7	6-9	+10	6	3
K. CopperG · #2	32	13	3-12	2-6	5-5	-6	4	0
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	21	3	1-5	1-2	—	0	1	2
Bench
D. BonnerF · #14	26	13	4-7	3-4	2-2	+17	6	1
K. WestbeldF · #24	10	3	1-3	1-3	—	-5	4	0
S. WhitcombG · #33	27	6	2-8	1-6	1-2	+16	4	3
Team		86	29-68	11-28	17-23		38	20
DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

32-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-68

FG %

9-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-28

8-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-23

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

PHX wins series 3-1

Sep 21

PHX69@

MIN82

Sep 23

PHX89@

MIN83

Sep 27

MIN76@

PHX84

Sep 29

MIN81@

PHX86today

How it ended

PHX beat MIN 86-81. A. Thomas led with 23 PTS, 8 REB, 10 AST. PHX outscored the other side 31-13 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 94% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 25 REB · 12 AST

GS 62

Bench(3)

5 PTS · 9 REB · 7 AST

GS 1

PHXstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST

GS 43

Bench(3)

22 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN2nd Quarter · 1:01 · 38-33

+22pp→ 75% WP

Alanna Smith · makes 3-foot layup (Courtney Williams assists)

PHX4th Quarter · 3:39 · 70-72

+18pp→ 62% WP

DeWanna Bonner · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Satou Sabally assists)

MIN4th Quarter · 1:04 · 76-77

+22pp→ 32% WP

Kayla McBride · makes 28-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	25	13	30	13	81
PHX	14	24	17	31	86

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · PHX won 2

Shepard 10

Sabally 8

Williams 4

Sabally 10

McBride 14

Copper 9

McBride 6

Bonner 11

MIN

PHX

Shooting comparison

MIN

PHX

42%

32-77

43%

29-68

38%

9-24

3PT

39%

11-28

89%

8-9

74%

17-23

Play-by-play · 386 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 81·PHX 86
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 81·PHX 86
Q4·0.2
Lynx offensive team rebound
MIN 81·PHX 86
Q4·0.2
Natisha Hiedeman misses 40-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 81·PHX 86
Q4·4.4
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 81·PHX 86
Q4·4.4
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 81·PHX 85
Q4·4.4
Courtney Williams personal take foul
·
MIN 81·PHX 84
+0.9pp
Q4·5.2
Mercury Full timeout
MIN 81·PHX 84
Q4·5.2
Natisha Hiedeman makes 3-foot two point shot (Bridget Carleton assists)
·
MIN 81·PHX 84
Q4·9.0
Lynx timeout
MIN 79·PHX 84
Q4·9.0
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 79·PHX 84
Q4·9.0
Mercury offensive team rebound
MIN 79·PHX 83
−0.6pp
Q4·9.0
Sami Whitcomb misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 79·PHX 83
Q4·9.0
Natisha Hiedeman personal foul
MIN 79·PHX 83
+1pp
Q4·10.9
Courtney Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
· ·
MIN 79·PHX 83
−0.8pp
Q4·19.7
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 76·PHX 83
Q4·19.7
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 76·PHX 82
Q4·19.7
Courtney Williams personal take foul
·
MIN 76·PHX 81
+0.5pp
Q4·21.7
Mercury timeout
MIN 76·PHX 81
Q4·21.7
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
MIN 76·PHX 81
+0.5pp
Q4·23.8
Kayla McBride misses two point shot
MIN 76·PHX 81
+1pp
Q4·27.0
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 76·PHX 81
Q4·27.0
Alyssa Thomas makes driving layup (Sami Whitcomb assists)
·
MIN 76·PHX 81
+2pp
Q4·30.6
Alanna Smith enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
MIN 76·PHX 79
Q4·30.6
Mercury Full timeout
MIN 76·PHX 79
Q4·30.6
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
MIN 76·PHX 79
+2pp
Q4·32.1
Kayla McBride misses 30-foot three point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·PHX 79
+6pp
Q4·42.3
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
MIN 76·PHX 79
Q4·42.3
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 76·PHX 79
Q4·42.3
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 76·PHX 79
−3pp

Recap · WNBA

hoenix Mercury held off Minnesota Lynx, 86–81.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

MIN32/77 · 42%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim9/13

69%

In the paint8/21

38%

Mid-range6/19

32%

Top-of-arc 38/21

38%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 31/1

100%

PHX29/68 · 43%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim12/18

67%

In the paint5/12

42%

Mid-range1/10

10%

Top-of-arc 39/19

47%

Left corner 31/5

20%

Right corner 31/4

25%

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

MIN

PHX

eFG%

shooting

47.4%

50.7%

TOV%

ball control

6.9%

13.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

11.4%

18.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

10.4%

25.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

MIN32/77 · 42%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim9/13

69%

In the paint8/21

38%

Mid-range6/19

32%

Top-of-arc 38/21

38%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 31/1

100%

PHX29/68 · 43%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim12/18

67%

In the paint5/12

42%

Mid-range1/10

10%

Top-of-arc 39/19

47%

Left corner 31/5

20%

Right corner 31/4

25%

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.5%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
52.6%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
52.6%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
54.2%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 75 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 8.1high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.5± 2.7high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
7.0± 2.1high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.5± 2.1high

Blocks

Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.2high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Minnesota LynxPhoenix Mercury

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Aces83Fever90Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop