Sep 29, 25sim 96
881
11(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+12LV
LV
30-14
8472
IND
24-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 84–72.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
18.9Game score
25
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
IND · top performer
Lexie Hull
G · #10
16.6Game score
16
Pts
10
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV30-14
8472
IND24-20
LV30-14IND24-20
LV
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +15 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 38 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +7 | |
| 36 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +17 | |
| 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +2 | |
| 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | |
| 23 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +17 | |
| Team | 84 | 26 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 14 | ||
| DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, K. Stokes, A. Nye | ||||||||
IND
24-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 15 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 38 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -8 | |
| 19 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | |
| 37 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 32 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | |
| 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 17 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -11 | |
| 21 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| Team | 72 | 39 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 14 | ||
| DNP: C. Bibby, D. Dantas, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark, B. Hall | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
36
20
Ast
14
Playoff series
LV leads series 2-1
Sep 21IND89@LV73
IND89@LV73Sep 24IND68@LV90
IND68@LV90Sep 26LV84@IND72today
LV84@IND72todaySep 28LV83@IND90
LV83@IND90Oct 1IND98@LV107
IND98@LV107Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 7:28
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 34 min
25 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
INDL. Hull
GGame leader · 32 min
16 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LV beat IND 84-72. J. Young paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 25-16 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST
GS 55
Bench(3)
15 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
GS 13
INDstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 29 REB · 11 AST
GS 31
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND3rd Quarter · 1:14 · 53-56
+10pp→ 63% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
IND4th Quarter · 9:19 · 59-56
+11pp→ 46% WP
A'ja Wilson · shooting foul
IND4th Quarter · 7:28 · 61-57
+11pp→ 43% WP
Jewell Loyd · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 20 | 15 | 24 | 25 | 84 |
| IND | 16 | 18 | 22 | 16 | 72 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · IND won 1
20
16
Q1
Young 6
Boston 6
15
18
Q2
Gray 5
Mitchell 9
24
22
Q3
Young 11
Mitchell 7
25
16
Q4
Smith 6
Peddy 5
LV
IND
Shooting comparison
LV
IND
51%
33-65
FG
36%
26-73
40%
4-10
3PT
30%
7-23
82%
14-17
FT
62%
13-21
Play-by-play · 410 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 84·IND 72
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 84·IND 72
- Q4·17.9
Chelsea Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 84·IND 72
- Q4·17.9
Chelsea Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 83·IND 72
- Q4·17.9
Aerial Powers personal take foul
LV 82·IND 72
- Q4·20.4
Shey Peddy makes 9-foot two point shot
LV 82·IND 72
- Q4·29.8
Dana Evans makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 82·IND 70
- Q4·29.8
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
LV 81·IND 70
- Q4·29.8
Brianna Turner enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
LV 81·IND 70
- Q4·29.8
Dana Evans makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 81·IND 70
- Q4·29.8
Shey Peddy personal take foul
LV 80·IND 70
- Q4·30.6
Shey Peddy bad pass (Chelsea Gray steals)
·
LV 80·IND 70
- Q4·31.7
Shey Peddy enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
LV 80·IND 70
- Q4·31.7
Fever timeout
LV 80·IND 70
- Q4·31.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 80·IND 70
- Q4·31.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 79·IND 70
- Q4·31.7
Brianna Turner personal take foul
LV 78·IND 70
- Q4·34.4
Brianna Turner enters the game for Shey Peddy
·
LV 78·IND 70
- Q4·34.4
Aces Full timeout
LV 78·IND 70
- Q4·35.2
Aliyah Boston makes 3-foot two point shot (Aerial Powers assists)
·
LV 78·IND 70
- Q4·48.8
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 78·IND 68
- Q4·48.8
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 77·IND 68
- Q4·48.8
Aerial Powers enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
LV 76·IND 68
- Q4·48.8
Lexie Hull personal take foul
LV 76·IND 68
−0.7pp
- Q4·58.1
Shey Peddy makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
·
LV 76·IND 68
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:07
Chelsea Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 76·IND 65
- Q4·1:07
Shey Peddy enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
LV 75·IND 65
- Q4·1:07
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 75·IND 65
- Q4·1:07
Chelsea Gray misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 75·IND 65
- Q4·1:07
Lexie Hull personal take foul
LV 75·IND 65
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
IND
Home
33-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-73
51
FG %
36
4-10
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-23
14-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-21
20
Assists
14
14
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
IND
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
45.4%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.1%
91.0
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
22.3
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4