Sep 27, 25sim 96
876
11(H)84
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2LV
LV
30-14
9088
PHX
27-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 90–88. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
30.9Game score
34
Pts
14
Reb
4
Ast
PHX · top performer
DeWanna Bonner
F · #14
20.8Game score
25
Pts
10
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV30-14
9088
PHX27-17
LV30-14PHX27-17
LV
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +16 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -13 | |
| 38 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | |
| 39 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +7 | |
| 37 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 30 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +13 | |
| 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 90 | 36 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| DNP: C. Parker-Tyus | ||||||||
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 39 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 32 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -6 | |
| 36 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 25 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 31 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| Team | 88 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
44
21
Ast
17
Playoff series
LV leads series 3-0
Oct 4PHX86@LV89
PHX86@LV89Oct 5PHX78@LV91
PHX78@LV91Oct 9LV90@PHX88today
LV90@PHX88todayOct 11LV97@PHX86
LV97@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 45pp · 4th Quarter · 0.9
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 38 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST
PHXD. Bonner
FGame leader · 31 min
25 PTS · 10 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
LV beat PHX 90-88. A. Wilson paced them with 34 PTS, 14 REB, 4 AST. PHX outscored the other side 29-14 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST
GS 65
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
GS 15
PHXstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 22 REB · 14 AST
GS 40
Bench(3)
27 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV4th Quarter · 1:57 · 85-83
+21pp→ 77% WP
Jackie Young · makes free throw 1 of 2
LV4th Quarter · 1:26 · 88-86
+18pp→ 79% WP
Monique Akoa Makani · shooting foul
LV4th Quarter · 0.9 · 90-88
+45pp→ 98% WP
A'ja Wilson · makes 7-foot two point shot (Chelsea Gray assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 26 | 29 | 21 | 14 | 90 |
| PHX | 23 | 20 | 16 | 29 | 88 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · PHX won 1
26
23
Q1
Loyd 12
Sabally 13
29
20
Q2
Young 9
Thomas 6
21
16
Q3
Wilson 11
Bonner 6
14
29
Q4
Wilson 6
Copper 11
LV
PHX
Shooting comparison
LV
PHX
43%
29-68
FG
44%
29-66
38%
9-24
3PT
33%
7-21
92%
23-25
FT
74%
23-31
Play-by-play · 413 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 90·PHX 88
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 90·PHX 88
- Q4·0.0
Mercury offensive team rebound
LV 90·PHX 88
- Q4·0.0
DeWanna Bonner misses 13-foot jumper
LV 90·PHX 88
−2pp
- Q4·0.3
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Megan Gustafson
·
LV 90·PHX 88
+1pp
- Q4·0.3
Mercury Full timeout
LV 90·PHX 88
−1pp
- Q4·0.9
A'ja Wilson makes 7-foot two point shot (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 90·PHX 88
−45pp
- Q4·5.0
Aces Full timeout
LV 88·PHX 88
+3pp
- Q4·17.3
Megan Gustafson defensive rebound
LV 88·PHX 88
−3pp
- Q4·19.8
Alyssa Thomas misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
LV 88·PHX 88
−8pp
- Q4·40.3
A'ja Wilson out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
LV 88·PHX 88
+10pp
- Q4·1:01
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 88·PHX 88
−8pp
- Q4·1:01
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 88·PHX 87
+2pp
- Q4·1:01
Megan Gustafson personal foulBIG MOMENT
LV 88·PHX 86
+12pp
- Q4·1:01
DeWanna Bonner offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LV 88·PHX 86
+9pp
- Q4·1:02
DeWanna Bonner misses 11-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
LV 88·PHX 86
−9pp
- Q4·1:22
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
LV 88·PHX 86
- Q4·1:26
Chelsea Gray misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
LV 88·PHX 86
+18pp
- Q4·1:26
Monique Akoa Makani shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 88·PHX 86
−18pp
- Q4·1:26
Chelsea Gray makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
LV 88·PHX 86
−7pp
- Q4·1:41
DeWanna Bonner makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
LV 86·PHX 86
+17pp
- Q4·1:57
Mercury Coach's Challenge
LV 86·PHX 83
- Q4·1:57
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 86·PHX 83
+5pp
- Q4·1:57
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 85·PHX 83
−21pp
- Q4·1:57
(01:57) [Mercury] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Mercury] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
LV 84·PHX 83
+19pp
- Q4·1:57
DeWanna Bonner shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 84·PHX 83
−14pp
- Q4·2:17
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
LV 84·PHX 83
−2pp
- Q4·2:19
Kahleah Copper misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LV 84·PHX 83
−7pp
- Q4·2:36
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
LV 84·PHX 83
+2pp
- Q4·2:39
Chelsea Gray misses 15-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
LV 84·PHX 83
+6pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
29-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-66
43
FG %
44
9-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-21
23-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-31
21
Assists
17
8
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 14 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
PHX
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
91.0
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9