Sep 5, 25sim 93
887
17(H)97
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2ATL
MIN
28-7
7375
ATL
23-13
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Minnesota Lynx, 75–73. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Jessica Shepard
F · #15
17.1Game score
15
Pts
16
Reb
4
Ast
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
22.1Game score
27
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN28-7
7375
ATL23-13
MIN28-7ATL23-13
MIN
28-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 35 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 37 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | |
| 33 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +5 | |
| 27 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +15 | |
| 10 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| Team | 73 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 18 | ||
| DNP: C. Taylor, A. Kosu | ||||||||
ATL
23-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +22 | |
| 31 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 31 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | |
| 37 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 30 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 17 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 75 | 34 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 9 | ||
| DNP: S. Kone | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
38
20
Ast
18
Season series
ATL wins series 2-1
Jun 27MIN96@ATL92
MIN96@ATL92Jul 27ATL90@MIN86
ATL90@MIN86Aug 21MIN73@ATL75today
MIN73@ATL75todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 1:56
MINJ. Shepard
FGame leader · 32 min
15 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 31 min
27 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
ATL beat MIN 75-73. A. Gray paced them with 27 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 20-12 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 33 REB · 20 AST
GS 49
Bench(4)
11 PTS · 9 REB · 0 AST
GS 2
ATLstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST
GS 51
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN4th Quarter · 1:56 · 67-70
+20pp→ 44% WP
Rhyne Howard · shooting foul
ATL4th Quarter · 1:31 · 68-73
+15pp→ 84% WP
Rhyne Howard · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Hillmon assists)
MIN4th Quarter · 49.0 · 71-73
+15pp→ 29% WP
Alanna Smith · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 24 | 16 | 20 | 13 | 73 |
| ATL | 25 | 17 | 12 | 21 | 75 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · ATL won 3
24
25
Q1
McBride 10
Howard 8
16
17
Q2
Shepard 4
Gray 8
20
12
Q3
Smith 5
Gray 6
13
21
Q4
Carleton 3
Gray 9
MIN
ATL
Shooting comparison
MIN
ATL
41%
29-70
FG
38%
27-71
45%
9-20
3PT
29%
9-31
75%
6-8
FT
92%
12-13
Play-by-play · 384 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 73·ATL 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 73·ATL 75
- Q4·0.0
Courtney Williams lost ball turnover (Brittney Griner steals)
·
MIN 73·ATL 75
+4pp
- Q4·1.7
Lynx offensive team rebound
MIN 73·ATL 75
−1pp
- Q4·1.7
Brittney Griner enters the game for Nia CoffeyBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 73·ATL 75
+12pp
- Q4·1.9
Rhyne Howard blocks Courtney Williams 's 6-foot driving floating jump shot
·
MIN 73·ATL 75
−3pp
- Q4·12.6
Nia Coffey enters the game for Shatori Walker-KimbroughBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 73·ATL 75
+8pp
- Q4·12.6
8 second turnoverBIG MOMENT
MIN 73·ATL 75
−8pp
- Q4·17.8
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
MIN 73·ATL 75
- Q4·17.8
Dream Full timeout
MIN 73·ATL 75
+1pp
- Q4·20.6
Jessica Shepard makes layup (Bridget Carleton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 73·ATL 75
−6pp
- Q4·22.4
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
MIN 71·ATL 75
- Q4·22.4
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 71·ATL 75
- Q4·22.4
Maya Caldwell makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 71·ATL 75
−5pp
- Q4·22.4
Maya Caldwell makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 71·ATL 74
+1pp
- Q4·22.4
Bridget Carleton personal take foul
MIN 71·ATL 73
+0.5pp
- Q4·24.6
Alanna Smith personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·ATL 73
+10pp
- Q4·24.7
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
MIN 71·ATL 73
+4pp
- Q4·28.2
Alanna Smith misses layupBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·ATL 73
+12pp
- Q4·40.9
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
MIN 71·ATL 73
- Q4·40.9
8 second turnover
MIN 71·ATL 73
- Q4·40.9
(00:40.9) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Lynx] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·ATL 73
−7pp
- Q4·40.9
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 71·ATL 73
- Q4·44.7
Dream Full timeout
MIN 71·ATL 73
+0.6pp
- Q4·49.0
Alanna Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 71·ATL 73
−15pp
- Q4·52.8
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
MIN 68·ATL 73
−1pp
- Q4·58.0
Rhyne Howard misses 21-foot step back jumpshot
MIN 68·ATL 73
−4pp
- Q4·1:18
Rhyne Howard defensive rebound
MIN 68·ATL 73
+2pp
- Q4·1:21
Courtney Williams misses 21-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 68·ATL 73
+5pp
- Q4·1:31
Lynx timeout
MIN 68·ATL 73
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
29-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-71
41
FG %
38
9-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-31
6-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-13
20
Assists
18
18
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort- Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
ATL
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.5%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
31.7%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
83.5
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.5
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.8