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FINAL+22LV
IND

IND

24-20

6890
LV

LV

30-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBATue, Sep 23FinalSeriesIND wins series 2-1

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces held off Indiana Fever, 90–68. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

IND · top performer

IND
Odyssey Sims

Odyssey Sims

G · #1

10.7Game score

18

Pts

0

Reb

7

Ast

LV · top performer

LV
A'ja Wilson

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

23.2Game score

25

Pts

9

Reb

1

Ast

WNBA · Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
68
90
IND24-20LV30-14
IND

IND

24-20

68
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. HowardN. Howard★F · #6
23671103+3
A. BostonA. Boston★C · #7
2910133003-18
O. SimsO. Sims★G · #1
321807106-8
K. MitchellK. Mitchell★G · #0
311315203-17
L. HullL. Hull★G · #10
291532000-17
B. TurnerB. TurnerF · #11
25130102-28
S. PeddyS. PeddyG · #5
17420011-19
Team6830185118
DNP: D. Dantas, S. Cunningham
LV

LV

30-14

90
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. SmithN. Smith★F · #3
301871102+14
K. BellK. Bell★F · #1
10411200-4
A. WilsonA. Wilson★C · #22
332591523+24
C. GrayC. Gray★G · #12
316110303+20
J. YoungJ. Young★G · #0
321355003+21
J. LoydJ. LoydG · #24
261041003+22
D. EvansD. EvansG · #11
191013100+11
Team90302212214

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

41

FG %

54

18

Ast

22

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 21INDIND89@LVLV73
Sep 24INDIND68@LVLV90today
Sep 26LVLV84@INDIND72
Sep 28LVLV83@INDIND90
Oct 1INDIND98@LVLV107

Headlines · top performers

Game flowIND ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:10

INDIND
O. Sims

O. Sims

G

Game leader · 32 min

18 PTS · 0 REB · 7 AST

LVLV
A. Wilson

A. Wilson

C

Game leader · 33 min

25 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

LV beat IND 90-68. A. Wilson paced them with 25 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST. LV outscored the other side 26-17 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs IND

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
INDINDstarters 91% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST

GS 38

Bench(5)

6 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST

GS 2

LVLVstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 23 REB · 18 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

24 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST

GS 16

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
IND2nd Quarter · 2:10 · 33-39
+7pp→ 23% WP

Kelsey Mitchell · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lexie Hull assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
IND1718171668
LV2620242090

Period scoring

IND won 0 · LV won 4

17
26

Q1

Boston 6

Wilson 11

18
20

Q2

Hull 6

Young 8

17
24

Q3

Hull 6

Wilson 8

16
20

Q4

Sims 11

Wilson 4

IND
LV

Shooting comparison

IND
LV

41%

25-61

FG

54%

35-65

35%

7-20

3PT

42%

5-12

73%

11-15

FT

71%

15-21

Play-by-play · 375 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    IND 68·LV 90

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    IND 68·LV 90

  3. Q4·18.2

    shot clock turnover

    IND 68·LV 90

  4. Q4·42.1

    Odyssey Sims bad pass (Kierstan Bell steals)

    ·

    IND 68·LV 90

  5. Q4·51.0

    Shey Peddy defensive rebound

    IND 68·LV 90

  6. Q4·53.9

    Dana Evans misses driving layup

    IND 68·LV 90

  7. Q4·1:09

    Odyssey Sims makes 14-foot pullup jump shot

    IND 68·LV 90

  8. Q4·1:15

    Cheyenne Parker-Tyus makes tip shot

    IND 66·LV 90

  9. Q4·1:15

    Cheyenne Parker-Tyus offensive rebound

    IND 66·LV 88

  10. Q4·1:16

    Cheyenne Parker-Tyus misses 5-foot hook shot

    IND 66·LV 88

  11. Q4·1:31

    Shey Peddy makes free throw 2 of 2

    IND 66·LV 88

  12. Q4·1:31

    Shey Peddy makes free throw 1 of 2

    IND 65·LV 88

  13. Q4·1:31

    Dana Evans shooting foul

    IND 64·LV 88

  14. Q4·1:42

    Dana Evans makes 10-foot pullup jump shot

    IND 64·LV 88

  15. Q4·1:57

    Brianna Turner makes free throw 2 of 2

    IND 64·LV 86

  16. Q4·1:57

    Fever offensive team rebound

    IND 63·LV 86

  17. Q4·1:57

    Brianna Turner misses free throw 1 of 2

    IND 63·LV 86

  18. Q4·1:57

    Kiah Stokes shooting foul

    IND 63·LV 86

  19. Q4·2:21

    Kierstan Bell makes 16-foot pullup jump shot

    IND 63·LV 86

  20. Q4·2:39

    Kiah Stokes defensive rebound

    IND 63·LV 84

  21. Q4·2:41

    Odyssey Sims misses free throw 2 of 2

    IND 63·LV 84

  22. Q4·2:41

    Odyssey Sims makes free throw 1 of 2

    IND 63·LV 84

  23. Q4·2:41

    Makayla Timpson enters the game for Natasha Howard

    ·

    IND 62·LV 84

  24. Q4·2:41

    Official timeout

    IND 62·LV 84

  25. Q4·2:41

    Aaliyah Nye shooting foul

    IND 62·LV 84

  26. Q4·2:50

    Natasha Howard defensive rebound

    IND 62·LV 84

  27. Q4·2:53

    Cheyenne Parker-Tyus misses 14-foot step back jumpshot

    IND 62·LV 84

  28. Q4·3:03

    Odyssey Sims makes driving layup

    IND 62·LV 84

  29. Q4·3:24

    Bree Hall defensive rebound

    IND 60·LV 84

  30. Q4·3:29

    Kierstan Bell misses 24-foot three point jumper

    IND 60·LV 84

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

LV

Home

25-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-65

41

FG %

54

7-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-12

11-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-21

18

Assists

22

18

Turnovers

14

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · IND favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LV vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    23.5± 12.0low
  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    19.4± 9.7low
  • Kelsey MitchellIND
    19.3± 7.5low

Rebounds

  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    7.2± 4.5low
  • A'ja WilsonLV
    6.9± 5.6low
  • Aliyah BostonIND
    6.6± 6.4low

Assists

  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Chelsea GrayLV
    6.3± 2.4low
  • Jackie YoungLV
    5.2± 3.1low

Blocks

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    1.9± 1.5low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Chelsea GrayLV
    1.0± 1.2low

Steals

  • Aliyah BostonIND
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    1.1± 1.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

IND

IND

league avg

LV

LV

45.4%

FG%

44.9

▶

49.7%

32.1%

3PT %

33.0

▶

34.9%

92.9

PPG

◀

86.0

91.0

22.3

Assists / G

18.0

22.1

14.4

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · wehoop