Sep 24, 25sim 89
568
17(H)90
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6LV
LV
26-14
8175
ATL
24-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 81–75.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
29.5Game score
34
Pts
9
Reb
1
Ast
ATL · top performer
Brionna Jones
F · #24
18.1Game score
19
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV26-14
8175
ATL24-14
LV26-14ATL24-14
LV
26-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 35 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +13 | |
| 33 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 35 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 33 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 18 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| Team | 81 | 32 | 26 | 4 | 6 | 7 | ||
| DNP: M. Gustafson | ||||||||
ATL
24-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 34 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5 | |
| 37 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 38 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 24 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | |
| 21 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| Team | 75 | 43 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 9 | ||
| DNP: S. Kone, S. Walker-Kimbrough | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
40
26
Ast
20
Season series
LV wins series 3-0
Jul 23ATL72@LV87
ATL72@LV87Aug 20ATL72@LV74
ATL72@LV74Aug 27LV81@ATL75today
LV81@ATL75todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 51.1
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 35 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST
ATLB. Jones
FGame leader · 30 min
19 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
LV beat ATL 81-75. A. Wilson paced them with 34 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST. LV outscored the other side 21-6 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST
GS 58
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST
GS 14
ATLstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 32 REB · 16 AST
GS 53
Bench(3)
10 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
GS 5
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV3rd Quarter · 2:55 · 51-48
+10pp→ 58% WP
A'ja Wilson · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
LV3rd Quarter · 2:30 · 54-48
+9pp→ 72% WP
A'ja Wilson · makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Jackie Young assists)
LV4th Quarter · 51.1 · 76-70
+12pp→ 94% WP
Jewell Loyd · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 16 | 24 | 21 | 20 | 81 |
| ATL | 19 | 23 | 6 | 27 | 75 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · ATL won 2
16
19
Q1
Wilson 6
Jones 8
24
23
Q2
Wilson 10
Howard 8
21
6
Q3
Wilson 8
Hillmon 3
20
27
Q4
Wilson 10
Howard 10
LV
ATL
Shooting comparison
LV
ATL
48%
32-67
FG
40%
30-75
38%
8-21
3PT
17%
4-24
82%
9-11
FT
85%
11-13
Play-by-play · 365 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 81·ATL 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 81·ATL 75
- Q4·0.1
Dream offensive team rebound
LV 81·ATL 75
- Q4·1.3
Rhyne Howard misses 24-foot three point jumper
LV 81·ATL 75
- Q4·2.8
Naz Hillmon offensive rebound
LV 81·ATL 75
- Q4·6.2
Rhyne Howard misses 32-foot three point jumper
LV 81·ATL 75
−0.6pp
- Q4·8.9
Brionna Jones enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
LV 81·ATL 75
- Q4·8.9
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Maya Caldwell
·
LV 81·ATL 75
- Q4·8.9
Dream timeout
LV 81·ATL 75
- Q4·8.9
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 81·ATL 75
+0.6pp
- Q4·8.9
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 80·ATL 75
- Q4·8.9
Naz Hillmon personal take foul
LV 79·ATL 75
−2pp
- Q4·10.3
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
LV 79·ATL 75
- Q4·10.3
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
LV 79·ATL 75
- Q4·10.3
Aces timeout
LV 79·ATL 75
- Q4·10.3
Rhyne Howard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naz Hillmon assists)
·
LV 79·ATL 75
+2pp
- Q4·11.3
Allisha Gray offensive rebound
·
LV 79·ATL 72
- Q4·13.3
Naz Hillmon misses 18-foot jumper
LV 79·ATL 72
- Q4·15.2
Naz Hillmon offensive rebound
LV 79·ATL 72
- Q4·20.9
Allisha Gray misses 24-foot three point jumper
·
LV 79·ATL 72
−0.9pp
- Q4·24.6
Dream Full timeout
LV 79·ATL 72
- Q4·25.1
Chelsea Gray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jewell Loyd assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
LV 79·ATL 72
−8pp
- Q4·45.1
Rhyne Howard makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
LV 76·ATL 72
+3pp
- Q4·51.1
Jewell Loyd makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 76·ATL 70
−12pp
- Q4·1:07
Te-Hina Paopao makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rhyne Howard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 73·ATL 70
+10pp
- Q4·1:09
Dana Evans enters the game for Kierstan Bell
·
LV 73·ATL 67
- Q4·1:09
Dream Full timeout
LV 73·ATL 67
- Q4·1:09
Chelsea Gray out of bounds bad pass turnover
·
LV 73·ATL 67
+3pp
- Q4·1:29
Allisha Gray makes two point shot (Brionna Jones assists)
· ·
LV 73·ATL 67
+2pp
- Q4·1:33
Jackie Young lost ball turnover (Brionna Jones steals)
·
LV 73·ATL 65
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
32-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-75
48
FG %
40
8-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-24
9-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-13
26
Assists
20
7
Turnovers
9
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
ATL
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.5%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
33.0
31.7%
91.0
PPG
◀
86.0
83.5
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.5
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8