Oct 5, 25sim 97
1178
17(H)91
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3LV
PHX
27-17
8689
LV
30-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Phoenix Mercury, 89–86. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Kahleah Copper
G · #2
16.5Game score
21
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
22.3Game score
21
Pts
10
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX27-17
8689
LV30-14
PHX27-17LV30-14
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 38 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -2 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 16 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +8 | |
| 31 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 36 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 26 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| 26 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -12 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| Team | 86 | 35 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
LV
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 16 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 38 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | |
| 35 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +10 | |
| 32 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 35 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 26 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| Team | 89 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 5 | ||
| DNP: C. Parker-Tyus | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
46
20
Ast
24
Playoff series
LV leads series 1-0
Oct 4PHX86@LV89today
PHX86@LV89todayOct 5PHX78@LV91
PHX78@LV91Oct 9LV90@PHX88
LV90@PHX88Oct 11LV97@PHX86
LV97@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 41pp · 4th Quarter · 24.6
PHXK. Copper
GGame leader · 36 min
21 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 38 min
21 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
LV beat PHX 89-86. A. Wilson led with 21 PTS, 10 REB, 5 AST. Jackie Young's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (41pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST
GS 58
Bench(3)
16 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST
GS 8
LVstarters 54% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 26 REB · 20 AST
GS 47
Bench(5)
41 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GS 33
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX4th Quarter · 24.6 · 86-87
+41pp→ 63% WP
Jackie Young · shooting foul
PHX4th Quarter · 24.6 · 86-87
+22pp→ 53% WP
Alyssa Thomas · misses free throw 1 of 2
LV4th Quarter · 13.5 · 86-87
+20pp→ 89% WP
Kahleah Copper · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 21 | 29 | 21 | 15 | 86 |
| LV | 21 | 24 | 22 | 22 | 89 |
Period scoring
PHX won 1 · LV won 2
21
21
Q1
Copper 7
Loyd 8
29
24
Q2
Copper 12
Evans 10
21
22
Q3
Makani 9
Wilson 6
15
22
Q4
Thomas 5
Evans 9
PHX
LV
Shooting comparison
PHX
LV
47%
31-66
FG
46%
33-72
39%
14-36
3PT
33%
9-27
77%
10-13
FT
70%
14-20
Play-by-play · 367 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 86·LV 89
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 86·LV 89
+1pp
- Q4·2.4
Jackie Young defensive rebound
PHX 86·LV 89
- Q4·2.4
Satou Sabally misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 86·LV 89
+13pp
- Q4·13.5
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Dana Evans
·
PHX 86·LV 89
- Q4·13.5
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 86·LV 89
- Q4·13.5
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 86·LV 89
−6pp
- Q4·13.5
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 86·LV 88
+2pp
- Q4·13.5
Kahleah Copper personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 86·LV 87
+20pp
- Q4·22.0
Chelsea Gray defensive rebound
PHX 86·LV 87
- Q4·24.6
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 86·LV 87
+15pp
- Q4·24.6
Mercury offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 86·LV 87
+7pp
- Q4·24.6
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 86·LV 87
−22pp
- Q4·24.6
(00:24.6) [Aces] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Aces] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 86·LV 87
+31pp
- Q4·24.6
Aces Full timeout
PHX 86·LV 87
- Q4·24.6
Jackie Young shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 86·LV 87
−41pp
- Q4·25.0
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 86·LV 87
+0.8pp
- Q4·28.9
Alyssa Thomas blocks A'ja Wilson 's 7-foot layup
·
PHX 86·LV 87
−1pp
- Q4·51.5
Alyssa Thomas makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
PHX 86·LV 87
−7pp
- Q4·57.8
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 84·LV 87
−2pp
- Q4·59.5
A'ja Wilson misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 84·LV 87
−5pp
- Q4·1:06
Jewell Loyd offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 84·LV 87
+6pp
- Q4·1:08
A'ja Wilson misses 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 84·LV 87
−8pp
- Q4·1:25
Sami Whitcomb personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 84·LV 87
+7pp
- Q4·1:25
Chelsea Gray defensive rebound
PHX 84·LV 87
+3pp
- Q4·1:28
DeWanna Bonner misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 84·LV 87
+8pp
- Q4·1:46
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
PHX 84·LV 87
−2pp
- Q4·1:52
Chelsea Gray misses 14-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 84·LV 87
−5pp
- Q4·2:01
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
PHX 84·LV 87
+2pp
- Q4·2:05
Sami Whitcomb misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 84·LV 87
+7pp
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
LV
Home
31-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-72
47
FG %
46
14-36
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-27
10-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-20
20
Assists
24
12
Turnovers
5
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 14 players in cohort- Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
LV
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶49.7%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.9%
85.6
PPG
86.0
▶91.0
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
13.6