Oct 4, 25sim 97
1186
17(H)89
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13LV
PHX
27-17
7891
LV
30-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Phoenix Mercury, 91–78.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
13.2Game score
22
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
25.0Game score
32
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX27-17
7891
LV30-14
PHX27-17LV30-14
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -13 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 19 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | |
| 27 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 31 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -21 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 27 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 17 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| Team | 78 | 34 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 11 | ||
| DNP: L. Held | ||||||||
LV
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 32 | 28 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +21 | |
| 35 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +14 | |
| 34 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 30 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +21 | |
| 26 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | |
| Team | 91 | 43 | 21 | 9 | 6 | 13 | ||
| DNP: K. Stokes | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
49
17
Ast
21
Playoff series
LV leads series 2-0
Oct 4PHX86@LV89
PHX86@LV89Oct 5PHX78@LV91today
PHX78@LV91todayOct 9LV90@PHX88
LV90@PHX88Oct 11LV97@PHX86
LV97@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:32
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 27 min
22 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 34 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
LV beat PHX 91-78. J. Young paced them with 32 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. LV outscored the other side 22-10 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST
GS 55
Bench(6)
8 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
GS 2
LVstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 35 REB · 16 AST
GS 65
Bench(5)
16 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV1st Quarter · 7:24 · 9-5
+7pp→ 56% WP
Jackie Young · makes 26-foot three pointer
LV2nd Quarter · 7:32 · 31-27
+8pp→ 48% WP
Jewell Loyd · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chelsea Gray assists)
LV2nd Quarter · 4:04 · 33-38
+7pp→ 77% WP
Satou Sabally · misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 27 | 10 | 24 | 17 | 78 |
| LV | 24 | 22 | 30 | 15 | 91 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · LV won 2
27
24
Q1
Copper 11
Gray 7
10
22
Q2
Thomas 4
Wilson 13
24
30
Q3
Sabally 8
Young 21
17
15
Q4
Sabally 10
Evans 5
PHX
LV
Shooting comparison
PHX
LV
41%
29-71
FG
49%
37-75
18%
5-28
3PT
35%
8-23
83%
15-18
FT
69%
9-13
Play-by-play · 389 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·10.2
Kathryn Westbeld defensive rebound
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·13.7
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·33.4
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus defensive rebound
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·36.4
Kathryn Westbeld misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·47.2
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·50.3
Kierstan Bell misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·1:11
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·1:13
Kalani Brown misses 4-foot two point shot
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·1:23
Kitija Laksa offensive rebound
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·1:27
Kitija Laksa misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·1:38
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·1:40
NaLyssa Smith misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·1:40
NaLyssa Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 78·LV 91
- Q4·1:40
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus enters the game for Jewell Loyd
·
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·1:40
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Chelsea Gray
·
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·1:40
Kierstan Bell enters the game for Jackie Young
·
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·1:40
(01:40) [Mercury] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Mercury] charged with a timeout
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·1:40
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·1:40
Natasha Mack shooting foul
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·1:53
Kalani Brown bad pass (Jewell Loyd steals)
·
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·1:57
Dana Evans lost ball turnover (Kalani Brown steals)
·
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·2:12
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·2:15
Kathryn Westbeld misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·2:28
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·2:31
Jewell Loyd misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·2:46
Kiana Williams makes driving layup
PHX 78·LV 90
- Q4·2:53
Kiana Williams defensive rebound
PHX 76·LV 90
- Q4·2:57
Jackie Young misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 76·LV 90
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
LV
Home
29-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
37-75
41
FG %
49
5-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-23
15-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-13
17
Assists
21
11
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 14 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
LV
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶49.7%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.9%
85.6
PPG
86.0
▶91.0
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
13.6