Sep 21, 25sim 96
589
17(H)73
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9LV
IND
24-20
98107
LV
30-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Indiana Fever, 107–98 in overtime.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Odyssey Sims
G · #1
18.4Game score
27
Pts
2
Reb
6
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
31.8Game score
35
Pts
8
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final / OT
IND24-20
98107
LV30-14
IND24-20LV30-14
IND
24-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -13 | |
| 32 | 11 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
| 41 | 27 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -7 | |
| 23 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 43 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 | |
| 23 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 22 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| Team | 98 | 40 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 19 | ||
| DNP: B. Hall | ||||||||
LV
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 41 | 35 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +12 | |
| 39 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | |
| 44 | 32 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 32 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +16 | |
| Team | 107 | 21 | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | ||
| DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, A. Nye | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
48
21
Ast
26
Playoff series
LV wins series 3-2
Sep 21IND89@LV73
IND89@LV73Sep 24IND68@LV90
IND68@LV90Sep 26LV84@IND72
LV84@IND72Sep 28LV83@IND90
LV83@IND90Oct 1IND98@LV107today
IND98@LV107todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 30pp · 4th Quarter · 27.1
INDO. Sims
GGame leader · 41 min
27 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 41 min30+ point game
35 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
LV beat IND 107-98. A. Wilson led the way with 35 points and 8 rebounds. LV outscored the other side 21-12 in OT.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 34 REB · 18 AST
GS 53
Bench(4)
17 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 14
LVstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
89 PTS · 15 REB · 21 AST
GS 83
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV4th Quarter · 49.9 · 84-84
+21pp→ 71% WP
Brianna Turner · personal foul
LV4th Quarter · 27.1 · 84-84
+19pp→ 75% WP
Aliyah Boston · loose ball foul
LV4th Quarter · 27.1 · 84-85
+30pp→ 78% WP
Jackie Young · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 23 | 22 | 18 | 23 | 12 | 98 |
| LV | 23 | 24 | 24 | 15 | 21 | 107 |
Period scoring
IND won 1 · LV won 3
23
23
Q1
Peddy 7
Wilson 8
22
24
Q2
Sims 9
Gray 7
18
24
Q3
Howard 7
Wilson 13
23
15
Q4
Sims 10
Young 7
12
21
OT
Sims 4
Gray 8
IND
LV
Shooting comparison
IND
LV
48%
35-73
FG
48%
38-80
41%
7-17
3PT
42%
11-26
88%
21-24
FT
91%
20-22
Play-by-play · 437 plays
period
event
player
- OT·0.0
End of Game
IND 98·LV 107
- OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
IND 98·LV 107
- OT·1.7
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
IND 98·LV 107
- OT·3.6
Natasha Howard misses alley oop layup
IND 98·LV 107
- OT·5.1
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Dana Evans
·
IND 98·LV 107
- OT·5.1
Fever timeout
IND 98·LV 107
- OT·5.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 98·LV 107
- OT·5.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 98·LV 106
- OT·5.1
Odyssey Sims personal foul
IND 98·LV 105
- OT·9.0
Dana Evans enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
IND 98·LV 105
- OT·9.0
Aces timeout
IND 98·LV 105
- OT·9.0
Aces defensive team rebound
IND 98·LV 105
- OT·10.7
Shey Peddy misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 98·LV 105
- OT·12.0
Fever Full timeout
IND 98·LV 105
- OT·12.0
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 98·LV 105
- OT·12.0
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Dana Evans
·
IND 98·LV 104
- OT·12.0
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 98·LV 104
- OT·12.0
Natasha Howard personal foul
IND 98·LV 103
- OT·12.5
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
IND 98·LV 103
- OT·14.5
Odyssey Sims misses two point shot
IND 98·LV 103
+1pp
- OT·20.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 98·LV 103
−0.7pp
- OT·20.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 98·LV 102
+0.5pp
- OT·20.7
Odyssey Sims personal foul
IND 98·LV 101
+2pp
- OT·22.6
Aces Full timeout
IND 98·LV 101
- OT·22.6
Shey Peddy makes 25-foot three pointer (Natasha Howard assists)
·
IND 98·LV 101
−0.7pp
- OT·42.1
Dana Evans makes 19-foot pullup jump shot
IND 95·LV 101
+4pp
- OT·1:03
Odyssey Sims makes driving layup
IND 95·LV 99
−2pp
- OT·1:09
Fever Full timeout
IND 93·LV 99
- OT·1:09
Chelsea Gray makes layup (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
IND 93·LV 99
+3pp
- OT·1:11
Aces offensive team rebound
IND 93·LV 97
+4pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
LV
Home
35-73
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-80
48
FG %
48
7-17
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-26
21-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-22
21
Assists
26
19
Turnovers
7
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
LV
45.4%
FG%
44.9
▶49.7%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.9%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
91.0
22.3
Assists / G
18.0
22.1
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6