WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+9LV

IND

24-20

98107

30-14

WNBATue, Sep 30FinalSeriesIND wins series 2-1

IND · top performer

Odyssey Sims

G · #1

18.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

31.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 30pp · 4th Quarter · 27.1

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #6	33	16	7-16	0-2	2-2	-13	7	5
A. BostonC · #7	32	11	5-12	—	1-2	+2	16	2
O. SimsG · #1	41	27	7-14	1-2	12-13	-7	2	6
K. MitchellG · #0	23	15	4-8	3-3	4-5	-4	2	2
L. HullG · #10	43	12	5-12	0-5	2-2	-9	7	3
Bench
B. TurnerF · #11	23	2	1-1	—	—	-5	3	1
M. TimpsonF · #21	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
S. PeddyG · #5	22	13	5-9	3-5	—	-10	2	2
A. PowersG · #23	6	2	1-1	—	—	+3	1	0
Team		98	35-73	7-17	21-24		40	21
DNP: B. Hall

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SmithF · #3	26	5	2-5	—	1-1	0	1	0
K. BellF · #1	6	0	—	—	—	-6	0	0
A. WilsonC · #22	41	35	13-27	1-1	8-10	+12	8	5
C. GrayG · #12	39	17	7-12	2-5	1-1	+4	2	6
J. YoungG · #0	44	32	10-20	4-11	8-8	+10	4	10
Bench
K. StokesC · #41	0	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
GustafsonC · #17	18	5	2-2	1-1	—	-1	0	2
J. LoydG · #24	32	8	2-7	2-4	2-2	+12	6	1
D. EvansG · #11	20	5	2-7	1-4	—	+16	0	2
Team		107	38-80	11-26	20-22		21	26
DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, A. Nye

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

Home

35-73

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-80

FG %

7-17

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-26

21-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-22

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

LV wins series 3-2

Sep 21

IND89@

LV73

Sep 24

IND68@

LV90

Sep 26

LV84@

IND72

Sep 28

LV83@

IND90

Oct 1

IND98@

LV107today

How it ended

LV beat IND 107-98. A. Wilson led the way with 35 points and 8 rebounds. LV outscored the other side 21-12 in OT.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 34 REB · 18 AST

GS 53

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

GS 14

LVstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 15 REB · 21 AST

GS 83

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV4th Quarter · 49.9 · 84-84

+21pp→ 71% WP

Brianna Turner · personal foul

LV4th Quarter · 27.1 · 84-84

+19pp→ 75% WP

Aliyah Boston · loose ball foul

LV4th Quarter · 27.1 · 84-85

+30pp→ 78% WP

Jackie Young · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
IND	23	22	18	23	12	98
LV	23	24	24	15	21	107

Period scoring

IND won 1 · LV won 3

Peddy 7

Wilson 8

Sims 9

Gray 7

Howard 7

Wilson 13

Sims 10

Young 7

Sims 4

Gray 8

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

48%

35-73

48%

38-80

41%

7-17

3PT

42%

11-26

88%

21-24

91%

20-22

Play-by-play · 437 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
IND 98·LV 107
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
IND 98·LV 107
OT·1.7
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
IND 98·LV 107
OT·3.6
Natasha Howard misses alley oop layup
IND 98·LV 107
OT·5.1
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Dana Evans
·
IND 98·LV 107
OT·5.1
Fever timeout
IND 98·LV 107
OT·5.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 98·LV 107
OT·5.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 98·LV 106
OT·5.1
Odyssey Sims personal foul
IND 98·LV 105
OT·9.0
Dana Evans enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
IND 98·LV 105
OT·9.0
Aces timeout
IND 98·LV 105
OT·9.0
Aces defensive team rebound
IND 98·LV 105
OT·10.7
Shey Peddy misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 98·LV 105
OT·12.0
Fever Full timeout
IND 98·LV 105
OT·12.0
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 98·LV 105
OT·12.0
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Dana Evans
·
IND 98·LV 104
OT·12.0
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 98·LV 104
OT·12.0
Natasha Howard personal foul
IND 98·LV 103
OT·12.5
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
IND 98·LV 103
OT·14.5
Odyssey Sims misses two point shot
IND 98·LV 103
+1pp
OT·20.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 98·LV 103
−0.7pp
OT·20.7
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 98·LV 102
+0.5pp
OT·20.7
Odyssey Sims personal foul
IND 98·LV 101
+2pp
OT·22.6
Aces Full timeout
IND 98·LV 101
OT·22.6
Shey Peddy makes 25-foot three pointer (Natasha Howard assists)
·
IND 98·LV 101
−0.7pp
OT·42.1
Dana Evans makes 19-foot pullup jump shot
IND 95·LV 101
+4pp
OT·1:03
Odyssey Sims makes driving layup
IND 95·LV 99
−2pp
OT·1:09
Fever Full timeout
IND 93·LV 99
OT·1:09
Chelsea Gray makes layup (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
IND 93·LV 99
+3pp
OT·1:11
Aces offensive team rebound
IND 93·LV 97
+4pp

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces held off Indiana Fever, 107–98 in overtime.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

IND35/73 · 48%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim9/12

75%

In the paint14/31

45%

Mid-range5/13

38%

Top-of-arc 37/15

47%

Right corner 30/2

LV38/80 · 48%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim5/8

63%

In the paint13/31

42%

Mid-range9/15

60%

Top-of-arc 310/21

48%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 31/2

50%

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

eFG%

shooting

52.7%

54.4%

TOV%

ball control

18.5%

7.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

44.4%

17.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

28.8%

25.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

IND35/73 · 48%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim9/12

75%

In the paint14/31

45%

Mid-range5/13

38%

Top-of-arc 37/15

47%

Right corner 30/2

LV38/80 · 48%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim5/8

63%

In the paint13/31

42%

Mid-range9/15

60%

Top-of-arc 310/21

48%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 31/2

50%

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.3%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
67.3%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
65.9%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
64.6%
P(LV win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LV vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
A'ja WilsonLV
25.4± 8.1high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.7± 4.0high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.9± 3.0high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Chelsea GrayLV
7.0± 2.0high
Jackie YoungLV
6.1± 3.4high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.4high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high

Steals

A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.5high
Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high
Jewell LoydLV
1.5± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · wehoop