WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

MIN

34-10

7574

23-21

WNBAWed, Sep 17FinalSeriesMIN wins series 4-0

MIN · top performer

Napheesa Collier

F · #24

18.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Veronica Burton

G · #22

14.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 77pp · 4th Quarter · 0.0

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	22	12	4-7	4-6	—	+10	2	1
A. SmithF · #8	19	2	1-4	0-2	—	+1	1	0
N. CollierF · #24	39	24	10-16	1-5	3-7	+2	7	4
K. McBrideG · #21	38	18	8-13	1-3	1-1	+5	4	3
C. WilliamsG · #10	28	6	3-9	0-4	—	-10	5	7
Bench
J. ShepardF · #15	19	0	0-4	0-1	—	-6	6	0
N. HiedemanG · #2	21	2	1-5	0-2	—	+1	2	7
D. CarringtonG · #3	14	11	4-9	2-5	1-2	+2	2	0
Team		75	31-67	8-28	5-10		29	22
DNP: M. Kliundikova, C. Taylor, A. Kosu, J. Sherrod

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	32	14	6-16	2-4	0-1	+3	5	3
J. SalaunF · #13	34	14	4-7	2-4	4-5	+3	4	1
I. RupertC · #12	32	8	3-5	2-4	—	0	2	5
K. CharlesG · #6	28	5	2-6	1-1	—	-17	4	3
V. BurtonG · #22	35	13	4-12	3-6	2-2	+5	6	9
Bench
M. BillingsF · #25	25	15	7-12	—	1-1	+2	4	0
K. MartinG · #20	6	5	2-3	1-2	—	+8	1	0
C. LeiteG · #0	8	0	0-3	0-1	—	-9	2	1
Team		74	28-64	11-22	7-9		28	22
DNP: L. Amihere, K. Chen

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

Home

31-67

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-64

FG %

8-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-22

5-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-9

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

MIN wins series 2-0

Sep 14

GS72@

MIN101

Sep 18

MIN75@

GS74today

How it ended

MIN beat GS 75-74. N. Collier led with 24 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 26-11 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST

GS 48

Bench(3)

13 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 9

GSstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 21 REB · 21 AST

GS 45

Bench(3)

20 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS4th Quarter · 1:00 · 73-72

+15pp→ 40% WP

Natisha Hiedeman · lost ball turnover (Kaila Charles steals)

MIN4th Quarter · 4.0 · 75-74

+18pp→ 98% WP

shot clock turnover

MIN4th Quarter · 0.0 · 75-74

+77pp→ 100% WP

Cecilia Zandalasini · misses 17-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	19	9	21	26	75
GS	27	14	22	11	74

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · GS won 3

McBride 7

Burton 6

Collier 5

Billings 4

Carleton 9

Burton 7

Collier 7

Zandalasini 4

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

46%

31-67

44%

28-64

29%

8-28

3PT

50%

11-22

50%

5-10

78%

7-9

Play-by-play · 356 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 75·GS 74
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 75·GS 74
Q4·0.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
MIN 75·GS 74
Q4·0.0
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 75·GS 74
−77pp
Q4·2.8
Kayla McBride personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 75·GS 74
+74pp
Q4·4.0
Alanna Smith enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
MIN 75·GS 74
Q4·4.0
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
MIN 75·GS 74
Q4·4.0
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
MIN 75·GS 74
−18pp
Q4·28.0
Cecilia Zandalasini makes 3-foot layup (Iliana Rupert assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 75·GS 74
+5pp
Q4·29.5
Iliana Rupert enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
MIN 75·GS 72
Q4·29.5
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
MIN 75·GS 72
Q4·29.8
Courtney Williams makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Bridget Carleton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 75·GS 72
−8pp
Q4·43.0
Lynx timeout
MIN 73·GS 72
Q4·43.4
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 73·GS 72
−4pp
Q4·47.0
Veronica Burton misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
MIN 73·GS 72
−13pp
Q4·1:00
Natisha Hiedeman lost ball turnover (Kaila Charles steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 73·GS 72
+15pp
Q4·1:03
Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound
MIN 73·GS 72
−4pp
Q4·1:07
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 15-foot step back jumpshot
MIN 73·GS 72
−5pp
Q4·1:24
(01:24) [Lynx] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
MIN 73·GS 72
−7pp
Q4·1:24
Napheesa Collier makes 18-foot jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 73·GS 72
−15pp
Q4·1:49
Monique Billings makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·GS 72
+14pp
Q4·1:49
Monique Billings offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·GS 70
+9pp
Q4·1:49
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 2-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·GS 70
−9pp
Q4·2:04
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
MIN 71·GS 70
+12pp
Q4·2:30
Veronica Burton personal foul
MIN 71·GS 70
−2pp
Q4·2:32
Veronica Burton lost ball turnover (Natisha Hiedeman steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 71·GS 70
−11pp
Q4·2:48
Kayla McBride makes 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·GS 70
−11pp
Q4·2:57
Napheesa Collier vs. Veronica Burton (Kayla McBride gains possession)
· ·
MIN 69·GS 70
Q4·2:57
Kaila Charles enters the game for Iliana Rupert
·
MIN 69·GS 70
Q4·2:57
Courtney Williams enters the game for DiJonai Carrington
·
MIN 69·GS 70

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 75–74. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

MIN31/67 · 46%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim4/6

67%

In the paint8/19

42%

Mid-range11/14

79%

Top-of-arc 35/21

24%

Left corner 32/3

67%

Right corner 31/3

33%

GS28/64 · 44%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim8/13

62%

In the paint7/21

33%

Mid-range2/8

25%

Top-of-arc 36/16

38%

Left corner 33/4

75%

Right corner 32/2

100%

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

MIN

eFG%

shooting

52.2%

52.3%

TOV%

ball control

14.4%

15.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

24.1%

21.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

7.5%

10.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391
Courtney WilliamsMIN · G
AST/TO2.286

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

MIN31/67 · 46%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim4/6

67%

In the paint8/19

42%

Mid-range11/14

79%

Top-of-arc 35/21

24%

Left corner 32/3

67%

Right corner 31/3

33%

GS28/64 · 44%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim8/13

62%

In the paint7/21

33%

Mid-range2/8

25%

Top-of-arc 36/16

38%

Left corner 33/4

75%

Right corner 32/2

100%

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

29.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
42.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
41.9%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
39.5%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high
Gabby WilliamsGS
14.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Olivia MilesMIN
5.2± 2.8high
Kiah StokesGS
5.0± 1.9high

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 2.6high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.5± 2.1high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.9high
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Minnesota LynxGolden State Valkyries

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Mercury86Liberty60Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop