Sep 17, 25sim 97
1783
14(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1MIN
MIN
34-10
7574
GS
23-21
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 75–74. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
18.1Game score
24
Pts
7
Reb
4
Ast
GS · top performer
Veronica Burton
G · #22
14.4Game score
13
Pts
6
Reb
9
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN34-10
7574
GS23-21
MIN34-10GS23-21
MIN
34-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | |
| 39 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
| 38 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 28 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | |
| 19 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 21 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | |
| 14 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | |
| Team | 75 | 29 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 12 | ||
| DNP: M. Kliundikova, C. Taylor, A. Kosu, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
GS
23-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +3 | |
| 34 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 32 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 28 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -17 | |
| 35 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +5 | |
| 25 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | |
| 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| Team | 74 | 28 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 12 | ||
| DNP: L. Amihere, K. Chen | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
44
22
Ast
22
Playoff series
MIN wins series 2-0
Sep 14GS72@MIN101
GS72@MIN101Sep 18MIN75@GS74today
MIN75@GS74todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 77pp · 4th Quarter · 0.0
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 39 min
24 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GSV. Burton
GGame leader · 35 min
13 PTS · 6 REB · 9 AST
How it ended
MIN beat GS 75-74. N. Collier led with 24 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 26-11 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST
GS 48
Bench(3)
13 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST
GS 9
GSstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 21 REB · 21 AST
GS 45
Bench(3)
20 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS4th Quarter · 1:00 · 73-72
+15pp→ 40% WP
Natisha Hiedeman · lost ball turnover (Kaila Charles steals)
MIN4th Quarter · 4.0 · 75-74
+18pp→ 98% WP
shot clock turnover
MIN4th Quarter · 0.0 · 75-74
+77pp→ 100% WP
Cecilia Zandalasini · misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 9 | 21 | 26 | 75 |
| GS | 27 | 14 | 22 | 11 | 74 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · GS won 3
19
27
Q1
McBride 7
Burton 6
9
14
Q2
Collier 5
Billings 4
21
22
Q3
Carleton 9
Burton 7
26
11
Q4
Collier 7
Zandalasini 4
MIN
GS
Shooting comparison
MIN
GS
46%
31-67
FG
44%
28-64
29%
8-28
3PT
50%
11-22
50%
5-10
FT
78%
7-9
Play-by-play · 356 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 75·GS 74
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 75·GS 74
- Q4·0.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
MIN 75·GS 74
- Q4·0.0
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 75·GS 74
−77pp
- Q4·2.8
Kayla McBride personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 75·GS 74
+74pp
- Q4·4.0
Alanna Smith enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
MIN 75·GS 74
- Q4·4.0
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
MIN 75·GS 74
- Q4·4.0
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
MIN 75·GS 74
−18pp
- Q4·28.0
Cecilia Zandalasini makes 3-foot layup (Iliana Rupert assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 75·GS 74
+5pp
- Q4·29.5
Iliana Rupert enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
MIN 75·GS 72
- Q4·29.5
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
MIN 75·GS 72
- Q4·29.8
Courtney Williams makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Bridget Carleton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 75·GS 72
−8pp
- Q4·43.0
Lynx timeout
MIN 73·GS 72
- Q4·43.4
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 73·GS 72
−4pp
- Q4·47.0
Veronica Burton misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
MIN 73·GS 72
−13pp
- Q4·1:00
Natisha Hiedeman lost ball turnover (Kaila Charles steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 73·GS 72
+15pp
- Q4·1:03
Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound
MIN 73·GS 72
−4pp
- Q4·1:07
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 15-foot step back jumpshot
MIN 73·GS 72
−5pp
- Q4·1:24
(01:24) [Lynx] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
MIN 73·GS 72
−7pp
- Q4·1:24
Napheesa Collier makes 18-foot jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 73·GS 72
−15pp
- Q4·1:49
Monique Billings makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·GS 72
+14pp
- Q4·1:49
Monique Billings offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·GS 70
+9pp
- Q4·1:49
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 2-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·GS 70
−9pp
- Q4·2:04
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
MIN 71·GS 70
+12pp
- Q4·2:30
Veronica Burton personal foul
MIN 71·GS 70
−2pp
- Q4·2:32
Veronica Burton lost ball turnover (Natisha Hiedeman steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 71·GS 70
−11pp
- Q4·2:48
Kayla McBride makes 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·GS 70
−11pp
- Q4·2:57
Napheesa Collier vs. Veronica Burton (Kayla McBride gains possession)
· ·
MIN 69·GS 70
- Q4·2:57
Kaila Charles enters the game for Iliana Rupert
·
MIN 69·GS 70
- Q4·2:57
Courtney Williams enters the game for DiJonai Carrington
·
MIN 69·GS 70
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
GS
Home
31-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-64
46
FG %
44
8-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-22
5-10
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
7-9
22
Assists
22
12
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
GS
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.3%
35.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶36.1%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
86.4
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1