Jul 6, 25sim 94
12968971
8(H)82
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+15IND
IND
7459
MIN
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Minnesota Lynx and beat them, 74–59.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
13.1Game score
12
Pts
11
Reb
6
Ast
MIN · top performer
Alanna Smith
F · #8
13.5Game score
15
Pts
5
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND
7459
MIN
IND—MIN—
IND
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +17 | |
| 33 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +15 | |
| 33 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +10 | |
| 25 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | |
| 15 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -5 | |
| 21 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +19 | |
| 26 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +18 | |
| Team | 74 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 14 | ||
| DNP: C. Clark | ||||||||
MIN
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 31 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -13 | |
| 34 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -12 | |
| 35 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 34 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -7 | |
| 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| Team | 59 | 30 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 16 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
35
20
Ast
13
Season series
MIN wins series 2-1
Aug 22MIN95@IND90
MIN95@IND90Aug 24IND84@MIN97
IND84@MIN97Sep 9MIN72@IND83
MIN72@IND83Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:13
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 33 min
12 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
MINA. Smith
FGame leader · 31 min
15 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
IND beat MIN 74-59. A. Boston led with 12 PTS, 11 REB, 6 AST. IND outscored the other side 20-7 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 29 REB · 15 AST
GS 44
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST
GS 16
MINstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST
GS 24
Bench(6)
14 PTS · 7 REB · 0 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND2nd Quarter · 2:13 · 28-27
+9pp→ 39% WP
Sophie Cunningham · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
IND2nd Quarter · 1:15 · 28-27
+8pp→ 42% WP
Courtney Williams · bad pass (Aliyah Boston steals)
IND3rd Quarter · 4:25 · 43-34
+9pp→ 78% WP
Lexie Hull · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 12 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 74 |
| MIN | 20 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 59 |
Period scoring
IND won 3 · MIN won 1
12
20
Q1
McDonald 5
Smith 7
20
7
Q2
Howard 6
Shepard 4
20
15
Q3
Howard 10
Smith 8
22
17
Q4
Boston 8
Shepard 5
IND
MIN
Shooting comparison
IND
MIN
43%
27-63
FG
35%
22-63
42%
8-19
3PT
25%
4-16
100%
12-12
FT
79%
11-14
Play-by-play · 360 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 74·MIN 59
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 74·MIN 59
- Q4·17.1
Makayla Timpson defensive rebound
IND 74·MIN 59
- Q4·17.1
Makayla Timpson blocks Diamond Miller 's 1-foot layup
·
IND 74·MIN 59
- Q4·19.1
Diamond Miller offensive rebound
IND 74·MIN 59
- Q4·21.1
Diamond Miller misses driving layup
IND 74·MIN 59
- Q4·33.1
Lexie Hull makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sophie Cunningham assists)
·
IND 74·MIN 59
- Q4·39.1
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·39.1
Diamond Miller blocks Kelsey Mitchell's driving layup
·
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·39.1
Lexie Hull enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·55.1
Brianna Turner defensive rebound
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·56.1
Diamond Miller misses driving layup
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·1:00
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·1:00
Brianna Turner enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·1:00
Alissa Pili enters the game for Courtney Williams
·
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·1:00
Maria Kliundikova enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·1:00
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·1:00
Diamond Miller enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·1:00
Lynx timeout
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·1:00
Kelsey Mitchell makes 19-foot pullup jump shot
IND 71·MIN 59
- Q4·1:17
Courtney Williams makes two point shot (Napheesa Collier assists)
·
IND 69·MIN 59
- Q4·1:22
Napheesa Collier defensive rebound
IND 69·MIN 57
- Q4·1:24
Sydney Colson misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
IND 69·MIN 57
- Q4·1:40
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 69·MIN 57
- Q4·1:41
Napheesa Collier misses two point shot
IND 69·MIN 57
- Q4·1:46
Natasha Howard bad pass (Napheesa Collier steals)
·
IND 69·MIN 57
- Q4·2:06
Napheesa Collier makes two point shot
IND 69·MIN 57
- Q4·2:06
Napheesa Collier offensive rebound
IND 69·MIN 55
- Q4·2:09
Kayla McBride misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 69·MIN 55
- Q4·2:19
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 69·MIN 55
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
27-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
22-63
43
FG %
35
8-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-16
12-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-14
20
Assists
13
14
Turnovers
16
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 12 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.2± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
MIN
45.4%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
89.7
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
21.3
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4