Sep 5, 25sim 97
685
20(H)104
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11ATL
LA
19-21
7586
ATL
27-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Los Angeles Sparks, 86–75.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
19.7Game score
18
Pts
3
Reb
7
Ast
ATL · top performer
Brionna Jones
F · #24
16.9Game score
16
Pts
13
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA19-21
7586
ATL27-14
LA19-21ATL27-14
LA
19-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| 24 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -11 | |
| 36 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | |
| 33 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 30 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | |
| 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| Team | 75 | 35 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon | ||||||||
ATL
27-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +17 | |
| 34 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +8 | |
| 36 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | |
| 37 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | |
| 14 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -6 | |
| 27 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
| Team | 86 | 43 | 24 | 8 | 9 | 10 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
43
19
Ast
24
Season series
ATL wins series 3-0
May 28ATL88@LA82
ATL88@LA82Sep 3LA75@ATL86today
LA75@ATL86todaySep 5LA85@ATL104
LA85@ATL104Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 14pp · 1st Quarter · 4:22
LAK. Plum
GGame leader · 33 min
18 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST
ATLB. Jones
FGame leader · 25 min
16 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
ATL beat LA 86-75. B. Jones led with 16 PTS, 13 REB, 2 AST. ATL outscored the other side 27-17 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 23 REB · 18 AST
GS 50
Bench(6)
13 PTS · 12 REB · 1 AST
GS 7
ATLstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST
GS 59
Bench(5)
21 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA1st Quarter · 7:27 · 8-0
+7pp→ 46% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
LA1st Quarter · 3:15 · 21-14
+7pp→ 47% WP
Julie Allemand · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dearica Hamby assists)
LA1st Quarter · 4:22 · 16-12
+14pp→ 39% WP
Maya Caldwell · out of bounds lost ball turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 24 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 75 |
| ATL | 26 | 27 | 18 | 15 | 86 |
Period scoring
LA won 1 · ATL won 2
24
26
Q1
Plum 7
Caldwell 7
17
27
Q2
Hamby 6
Jones 21
19
18
Q3
Hamby 8
Jones 5
15
15
Q4
Jackson 4
Hillmon 6
LA
ATL
Shooting comparison
LA
ATL
41%
28-69
FG
43%
34-79
24%
6-25
3PT
39%
11-28
65%
13-20
FT
88%
7-8
Play-by-play · 392 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·21.5
Dream defensive team rebound
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·22.1
Julie Vanloo misses two point shot
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·25.6
Maya Caldwell bad pass (Julie Vanloo steals)
·
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·26.3
Maya Caldwell offensive rebound
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·30.1
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·44.8
Dream defensive team rebound
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·44.8
Rae Burrell misses free throw 2 of 2
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·44.8
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·44.8
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·44.8
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·44.8
Sika Kone enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·44.8
Rae Burrell makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 75·ATL 86
- Q4·44.8
Naz Hillmon shooting foul
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·44.8
Rae Burrell offensive rebound
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·47.3
Rae Burrell misses 23-foot three point jumper
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·48.7
Sarah Ashlee Barker offensive rebound
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·52.5
Rae Burrell misses 22-foot three point jumper
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·1:03
Alissa Pili defensive rebound
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·1:07
Maya Caldwell misses 11-foot two point shot
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·1:10
Brittney Griner offensive rebound
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·1:13
Jordin Canada misses layup
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·1:32
Brittney Griner defensive rebound
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·1:36
Naz Hillmon blocks Rae Burrell 's 5-foot two point shot
·
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·1:42
Jordin Canada bad pass (Cameron Brink steals)
·
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·2:00
Alissa Pili makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 74·ATL 86
- Q4·2:00
Alissa Pili makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 73·ATL 86
- Q4·2:00
Rhyne Howard shooting foul
LA 72·ATL 86
- Q4·2:11
Sarah Ashlee Barker defensive rebound
LA 72·ATL 86
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
28-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-79
41
FG %
43
6-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-28
13-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
7-8
19
Assists
24
11
Turnovers
10
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
ATL
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
43.6%
34.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
83.9
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.9
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.9