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FINAL+31MIN
LV

LV

12-13

78109
MIN

MIN

22-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBAFri, Jul 25FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-1

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Las Vegas Aces, 109–78. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LV · top performer

LV
A'ja Wilson

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

15.6Game score

15

Pts

7

Reb

3

Ast

MIN · top performer

MIN
Courtney Williams

Courtney Williams

G · #10

22.2Game score

23

Pts

3

Reb

5

Ast

WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
78
109
LV12-13MIN22-4
LV

LV

12-13

78
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. SmithN. Smith★F · #3
23850110-14
A. WilsonA. Wilson★C · #22
241573030-18
C. GrayC. Gray★G · #12
22920002-15
J. LoydJ. Loyd★G · #24
21031100-18
J. YoungJ. Young★G · #0
271435200-20
K. BellK. BellF · #1
13900000-15
K. StokesK. StokesC · #41
9020200-5
M. GustafsonM. GustafsonC · #17
13811000-10
D. EvansD. EvansG · #11
25845003-23
A. NyeA. NyeG · #13
24730101-17
Team783015746
DNP: C. Parker-Tyus
MIN

MIN

22-4

109
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
B. CarletonB. Carleton★F · #6
251460002+27
A. SmithA. Smith★F · #8
19464311+19
N. CollierN. Collier★F · #24
262592102+28
K. McBrideK. McBride★G · #21
281333000+30
C. WilliamsC. Williams★G · #10
272335000+16
J. ShepardJ. ShepardF · #15
2110134002+12
M. KliundikovaF · #77
14231100+3
D. MillerD. MillerF · #1
16700001+2
A. KosuA. KosuF · #7
8510000+7
N. HiedemanN. HiedemanG · #2
16643002+11
Team10948225110
DNP: K. Samuelson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

38

FG %

54

15

Ast

22

Season series

MIN wins series 3-1

Jun 18LVLV62@MINMIN76
Jul 25LVLV78@MINMIN109today
Aug 2MINMIN111@LVLV58
Sep 5MINMIN87@LVLV97

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLV ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 4:22

LVLV
A. Wilson

A. Wilson

C

Game leader · 24 min

15 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST

MINMIN
C. Williams

C. Williams

G

Game leader · 27 min

23 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST

How it ended

MIN beat LV 109-78. C. Williams led with 23 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. MIN outscored the other side 27-18 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs LV

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
LVLVstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

46 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST

GS 36

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 17

MINMINstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 70

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST

GS 24

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
LV1817261778
MIN27243424109

Period scoring

LV won 0 · MIN won 4

18
27

Q1

Gray 7

Williams 9

17
24

Q2

Wilson 7

Williams 7

26
34

Q3

Young 6

Collier 7

17
24

Q4

Bell 6

Collier 5

LV
MIN

Shooting comparison

LV
MIN

38%

27-71

FG

54%

37-68

31%

8-26

3PT

40%

10-25

70%

16-23

FT

66%

25-38

Play-by-play · 418 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    LV 78·MIN 109

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    LV 78·MIN 109

  3. Q4·20.1

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound

    LV 78·MIN 109

  4. Q4·23.1

    Dana Evans misses 25-foot three point jumper

    LV 78·MIN 109

  5. Q4·40.0

    NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound

    ·

    LV 78·MIN 109

  6. Q4·43.2

    Natisha Hiedeman misses 23-foot three point jumper

    LV 78·MIN 109

  7. Q4·53.2

    Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound

    LV 78·MIN 109

  8. Q4·56.1

    Kierstan Bell misses 25-foot three point shot

    LV 78·MIN 109

  9. Q4·59.1

    Dana Evans defensive rebound

    LV 78·MIN 109

  10. Q4·1:03

    Diamond Miller misses 25-foot three point jumper

    LV 78·MIN 109

  11. Q4·1:05

    Jessica Shepard offensive rebound

    LV 78·MIN 109

  12. Q4·1:09

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses free throw 1 of 1

    LV 78·MIN 109

  13. Q4·1:09

    Aaliyah Nye shooting foul

    LV 78·MIN 109

  14. Q4·1:09

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes two point shot (Maria Kliundikova assists)

    ·

    LV 78·MIN 109

  15. Q4·1:13

    Dana Evans bad pass (Maria Kliundikova steals)

    ·

    LV 78·MIN 107

  16. Q4·1:26

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes 1-foot layup (Jessica Shepard assists)

    ·

    LV 78·MIN 107

  17. Q4·1:37

    Jessica Shepard defensive rebound

    LV 78·MIN 105

  18. Q4·1:40

    NaLyssa Smith misses free throw 2 of 2

    ·

    LV 78·MIN 105

  19. Q4·1:40

    NaLyssa Smith makes free throw 1 of 2

    ·

    LV 78·MIN 105

  20. Q4·1:40

    Maria Kliundikova personal foul

    LV 77·MIN 105

  21. Q4·1:40

    NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound

    ·

    LV 77·MIN 105

  22. Q4·1:42

    Maria Kliundikova misses layup

    LV 77·MIN 105

  23. Q4·1:49

    Lynx Full timeout

    LV 77·MIN 105

  24. Q4·1:57

    Jessica Shepard defensive rebound

    LV 77·MIN 105

  25. Q4·2:00

    Jewell Loyd misses 24-foot three point jumper

    LV 77·MIN 105

  26. Q4·2:21

    Jessica Shepard makes driving layup

    LV 77·MIN 105

  27. Q4·2:29

    Jessica Shepard defensive rebound

    LV 77·MIN 103

  28. Q4·2:32

    Dana Evans misses 12-foot pullup jump shot

    LV 77·MIN 103

  29. Q4·2:56

    Natisha Hiedeman makes two point shot

    LV 77·MIN 103

  30. Q4·3:00

    Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound

    LV 77·MIN 101

Team stats

LV

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

27-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-68

38

FG %

54

8-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-25

16-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-38

15

Assists

22

6

Turnovers

10

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jessica ShepardDAL · F
    ORB%.10999+

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · LV favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

100

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    23.5± 12.0low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    17.4± 9.2low
  • Natasha HowardMIN
    15.3± 11.8low

Rebounds

  • Natasha HowardMIN
    7.4± 4.8low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    7.2± 4.5low
  • A'ja WilsonLV
    6.9± 5.6low

Assists

  • Chelsea GrayLV
    6.3± 2.4low
  • Olivia MilesMIN
    5.3± 2.9low
  • Jackie YoungLV
    5.2± 3.1low

Blocks

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    1.9± 1.5low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Nia CoffeyMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Steals

  • Kayla McBrideMIN
    1.8± 1.6low
  • Courtney WilliamsMIN
    1.3± 1.4low
  • Olivia MilesMIN
    1.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

LV

LV

league avg

MIN

MIN

49.7%

FG%

44.7

50.1%

34.9%

3PT %

◀

32.6

34.5%

91.0

PPG

◀

85.4

88.4

22.1

Assists / G

◀

18.0

21.1

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

15.3

Data via ESPN · wehoop