Sep 8, 25sim 86
1862
20(H)87
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+39MIN
CON
2-15
63102
MIN
14-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Connecticut Sun, 102–63. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Aneesah Morrow
F · #24
17.6Game score
16
Pts
11
Reb
2
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
20.6Game score
23
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON2-15
63102
MIN14-2
CON2-15MIN14-2
CON
2-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -29 | |
| 21 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -29 | |
| 21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -31 | |
| 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -30 | |
| 24 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -24 | |
| 18 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 27 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| 19 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -19 | |
| 17 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| Team | 63 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 14 | ||
| DNP: M. Mabrey | ||||||||
MIN
14-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +36 | |
| 21 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +20 | |
| 27 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +32 | |
| 29 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +19 | |
eFG%.47757 AST/TO1.343 TS%.54729 | ||||||||
| 25 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +31 | |
| 12 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +13 | |
| 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +7 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 22 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +22 | |
| Team | 102 | 41 | 27 | 8 | 5 | 13 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
35
FG %
51
14
Ast
27
Season series
MIN wins series 3-0
May 23CON70@MIN76
CON70@MIN76Jun 29CON63@MIN102today
CON63@MIN102todayAug 30MIN94@CON70
MIN94@CON70Headlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ MIN
CONA. Morrow
FGame leader · 27 min
16 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 27 min
23 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
MIN beat CON 102-63. N. Collier led with 23 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 23-9 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 52% of ptsStarters(5)
33 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
GS 11
Bench(6)
30 PTS · 16 REB · 8 AST
GS 24
MINstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 26 REB · 17 AST
GS 68
Bench(7)
31 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST
GS 25
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 17 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 63 |
| MIN | 27 | 23 | 27 | 25 | 102 |
Period scoring
CON won 0 · MIN won 4
17
27
Q1
Sheldon 7
McBride 8
9
23
Q2
Peters 5
Williams 7
15
27
Q3
Nelson-Ododa 6
Collier 15
22
25
Q4
Brown 5
Kosu 14
CON
MIN
Shooting comparison
CON
MIN
35%
23-66
FG
51%
36-71
22%
4-18
3PT
29%
10-34
76%
13-17
FT
83%
20-24
Play-by-play · 389 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 63·MIN 102
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 63·MIN 102
- Q4·15.0
Kariata Diaby out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 63·MIN 102
- Q4·26.0
Natisha Hiedeman makes driving layup
CON 63·MIN 102
- Q4·38.1
Jaelyn Brown makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Saniya Rivers assists)
·
CON 63·MIN 100
- Q4·50.0
Rayah Marshall defensive rebound
CON 61·MIN 100
- Q4·52.1
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses driving layup
CON 61·MIN 100
- Q4·1:07
Rayah Marshall makes 21-foot jumper (Lindsay Allen assists)
·
CON 61·MIN 100
- Q4·1:25
Natisha Hiedeman makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 59·MIN 100
- Q4·1:25
Natisha Hiedeman makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 59·MIN 99
- Q4·1:25
Rayah Marshall shooting foul
CON 59·MIN 98
- Q4·1:29
Diamond Miller defensive rebound
CON 59·MIN 98
- Q4·1:32
Rayah Marshall misses two point shot
CON 59·MIN 98
- Q4·1:48
Natisha Hiedeman makes driving layup (Alissa Pili assists)
·
CON 59·MIN 98
- Q4·2:05
Diamond Miller defensive rebound
CON 59·MIN 96
- Q4·2:09
Lindsay Allen misses 25-foot three point jumper
CON 59·MIN 96
- Q4·2:24
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 59·MIN 96
- Q4·2:24
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 59·MIN 95
- Q4·2:24
Jaelyn Brown enters the game for Haley Peters
·
CON 59·MIN 94
- Q4·2:24
Haley Peters personal foul
CON 59·MIN 94
- Q4·2:24
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound
CON 59·MIN 94
- Q4·2:26
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses 6-foot two point shot
CON 59·MIN 94
- Q4·2:33
Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound
CON 59·MIN 94
- Q4·2:37
Saniya Rivers misses free throw 2 of 2
CON 59·MIN 94
- Q4·2:37
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 59·MIN 94
- Q4·2:37
Diamond Miller shooting foul
CON 58·MIN 94
- Q4·2:51
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes driving layup (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
·
CON 58·MIN 94
- Q4·2:59
Kariata Diaby turnover (lane violation)
CON 58·MIN 92
- Q4·2:59
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 58·MIN 92
- Q4·2:59
Haley Peters misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 58·MIN 92
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
23-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-71
35
FG %
51
4-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-34
13-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-24
14
Assists
27
14
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 10 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN14.3± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
MIN
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶50.1%
26.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.5%
74.7
PPG
85.4
▶88.4
17.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
14.8
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.3