Aug 26, 25sim 94
1779
19(H)74
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3CON
PHX
27-15
8487
CON
11-31
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
onnecticut Sun held off Phoenix Mercury, 87–84. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
11.5Game score
14
Pts
8
Reb
10
Ast
CON · top performer
Tina Charles
C · #31
16.7Game score
22
Pts
10
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX27-15
8487
CON11-31
PHX27-15CON11-31
PHX
27-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 22 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| 27 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 30 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
USG%.30999+ TS%.4510 eFG%.3620 | ||||||||
| 18 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 30 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 26 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| Team | 84 | 33 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams | ||||||||
CON
11-31
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 35 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | |
| 21 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 38 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +5 | |
| 25 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | |
| 19 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 30 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | |
| Team | 87 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 14 | ||
| DNP: O. Nelson-Ododa, R. Marshall, B. Hartley | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
44
21
Ast
16
Season series
PHX wins series 2-1
Jun 18PHX83@CON75
PHX83@CON75Aug 6CON66@PHX82
CON66@PHX82Sep 6PHX84@CON87today
PHX84@CON87todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 1:11
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 32 min
14 PTS · 8 REB · 10 AST
CONT. Charles
CGame leader · 35 min
22 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
CON beat PHX 87-84. T. Charles led with 22 PTS, 10 REB, 2 AST. PHX outscored the other side 32-21 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 25 REB · 18 AST
GS 40
Bench(4)
27 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
GS 18
CONstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 29 REB · 10 AST
GS 48
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST
GS 14
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON4th Quarter · 7:03 · 71-69
+18pp→ 48% WP
Monique Akoa Makani · shooting foul
CON4th Quarter · 1:11 · 81-81
+21pp→ 62% WP
Aneesah Morrow · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2
PHX4th Quarter · 44.4 · 81-81
+16pp→ 72% WP
Tina Charles · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 18 | 32 | 13 | 21 | 84 |
| CON | 26 | 21 | 17 | 23 | 87 |
Period scoring
PHX won 1 · CON won 3
18
26
Q1
Thomas 5
Mabrey 11
32
21
Q2
Bonner 6
Thomas 12
13
17
Q3
Copper 6
Mabrey 8
21
23
Q4
Copper 6
Charles 6
PHX
CON
Shooting comparison
PHX
CON
41%
29-71
FG
44%
28-63
34%
11-32
3PT
31%
5-16
71%
15-21
FT
76%
26-34
Play-by-play · 429 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 84·CON 87
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 84·CON 87
- Q4·0.4
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
PHX 84·CON 87
- Q4·0.4
Kahleah Copper misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 84·CON 87
+4pp
- Q4·3.7
Sami Whitcomb enters the game for Monique Akoa Makani
·
PHX 84·CON 87
- Q4·3.7
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 84·CON 87
- Q4·3.7
Leila Lacan makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 84·CON 87
−2pp
- Q4·3.7
Leila Lacan makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 84·CON 86
+0.9pp
- Q4·3.7
Alyssa Thomas personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 84·CON 85
+12pp
- Q4·5.6
Natasha Mack enters the game for Sami Whitcomb
·
PHX 84·CON 85
- Q4·5.6
Monique Akoa Makani enters the game for Satou Sabally
·
PHX 84·CON 85
- Q4·5.6
Sun Full timeout
PHX 84·CON 85
- Q4·5.6
Satou Sabally makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kahleah Copper assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 84·CON 85
−10pp
- Q4·9.7
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 81·CON 85
- Q4·9.7
Leila Lacan makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 81·CON 85
−3pp
- Q4·9.7
Leila Lacan makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 81·CON 84
+0.9pp
- Q4·9.7
DeWanna Bonner personal take foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 81·CON 83
+9pp
- Q4·11.0
Leila Lacan defensive rebound
PHX 81·CON 83
+4pp
- Q4·14.2
Sami Whitcomb misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 81·CON 83
+14pp
- Q4·27.7
Mercury timeout
PHX 81·CON 83
- Q4·27.8
Leila Lacan makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
PHX 81·CON 83
+13pp
- Q4·41.1
Tina Charles defensive rebound
PHX 81·CON 81
- Q4·44.4
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 81·CON 81
+10pp
- Q4·44.4
Mercury offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 81·CON 81
+9pp
- Q4·44.4
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 81·CON 81
+8pp
- Q4·44.4
Tina Charles shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 81·CON 81
−17pp
- Q4·51.9
Mercury defensive team rebound
PHX 81·CON 81
−2pp
- Q4·53.1
Saniya Rivers misses 19-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 81·CON 81
−7pp
- Q4·1:11
Sun offensive team rebound
PHX 81·CON 81
- Q4·1:11
Aneesah Morrow misses free throw flagrant 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 81·CON 81
−7pp
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
CON
Home
29-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-63
41
FG %
44
11-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-16
15-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-34
21
Assists
16
12
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 10 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Kennedy BurkeCON2.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
CON
42.3%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
31.4%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
83.7
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
17.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶17.9
12.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8