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FINAL+16ATL
ATL

ATL

30-14

8872
CON

CON

11-33

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBAWed, Sep 10FinalSeriesATL wins series 4-1

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 88–72.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Brittney Griner

Brittney Griner

C · #42

17.2Game score

17

Pts

4

Reb

1

Ast

CON · top performer

CON
Marina Mabrey

Marina Mabrey

G · #3

15.5Game score

22

Pts

1

Reb

5

Ast

WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
88
72
ATL30-14CON11-33
ATL

ATL

30-14

88
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
B. JonesB. Jones★F · #24
161321101+4
N. HillmonN. Hillmon★F · #0
27741000+11
A. GrayA. Gray★G · #15
201325011+5
R. HowardR. Howard★G · #10
271544314+7
T. PaopaoT. Paopao★G · #2
31636212+18
N. CoffeyN. CoffeyF · #12
151031021+6
B. GrinerB. GrinerC · #42
211741040+11
J. CanadaJ. CanadaG · #3
94041020
M. CaldwellM. CaldwellG · #33
29392002+16
Team8831267913
DNP: T. Thierry
CON

CON

11-33

72
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
A. MorrowA. Morrow★F · #24
3211100101-4
T. CharlesT. Charles★C · #31
19912001-3
L. AllenL. Allen★G · #15
33481000-12
M. MabreyM. Mabrey★G · #3
362215104-18
S. RiversS. Rivers★G · #22
361635102-14
A. EdwardsA. EdwardsF · #8
23481500-16
M. ToureM. ToureG · #28
13420201-6
Team72351410110
DNP: O. Nelson-Ododa, B. Hartley, L. Lacan

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

54

FG %

36

26

Ast

14

Season series

ATL wins series 4-1

May 25CONCON55@ATLATL79
Jun 6ATLATL76@CONCON84
Sep 1ATLATL93@CONCON76
Sep 8CONCON62@ATLATL87
Sep 10ATLATL88@CONCON72today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ CON
ATLATL
B. Griner

B. Griner

C

Game leader · 21 min

17 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST

CONCON
M. Mabrey

M. Mabrey

G

Game leader · 36 min

22 PTS · 1 REB · 5 AST

How it ended

ATL beat CON 88-72. B. Griner led with 17 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST. ATL outscored the other side 31-13 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs ATL

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
ATLATLstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 15 REB · 17 AST

GS 48

Bench(6)

34 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 32

CONCONstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST

GS 39

Bench(4)

10 PTS · 12 REB · 1 AST

GS 12

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
ATL3120201788
CON1315301472

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · CON won 1

31
13

Q1

Howard 8

Charles 6

20
15

Q2

Griner 6

Rivers 5

20
30

Q3

Jones 6

Mabrey 9

17
14

Q4

Howard 5

Mabrey 4

ATL
CON

Shooting comparison

ATL
CON

54%

33-61

FG

36%

26-73

37%

10-27

3PT

15%

3-20

86%

12-14

FT

81%

17-21

Play-by-play · 381 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    ATL 88·CON 72

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    ATL 88·CON 72

  3. Q4·2.3

    Maya Caldwell defensive rebound

    ATL 88·CON 72

  4. Q4·2.3

    Aneesah Morrow misses 14-foot pullup jump shot

    ATL 88·CON 72

  5. Q4·3.0

    Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound

    ATL 88·CON 72

  6. Q4·7.0

    Haley Peters misses 8-foot step back jumpshot

    ATL 88·CON 72

  7. Q4·22.4

    Lindsay Allen defensive rebound

    ATL 88·CON 72

  8. Q4·24.5

    Rayah Marshall blocks Nia Coffey 's 3-foot driving layup

    ·

    ATL 88·CON 72

  9. Q4·49.5

    Sika Kone enters the game for Naz Hillmon

    ·

    ATL 88·CON 72

  10. Q4·49.5

    Dream defensive team rebound

    ATL 88·CON 72

  11. Q4·50.7

    Rayah Marshall misses 11-foot two point shot

    ATL 88·CON 72

  12. Q4·59.8

    Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound

    ATL 88·CON 72

  13. Q4·1:01

    Maya Caldwell misses 25-foot three point jumper

    ATL 88·CON 72

  14. Q4·1:22

    Lindsay Allen makes 16-foot running pullup jump shot

    ATL 88·CON 72

  15. Q4·1:25

    Lindsay Allen defensive rebound

    ATL 88·CON 70

  16. Q4·1:28

    Te-Hina Paopao misses driving floating jump shot

    ATL 88·CON 70

  17. Q4·1:36

    Haley Peters enters the game for Aaliyah Edwards

    ·

    ATL 88·CON 70

  18. Q4·1:36

    Rayah Marshall enters the game for Marina Mabrey

    ·

    ATL 88·CON 70

  19. Q4·1:55

    Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Rhyne Howard

    ·

    ATL 88·CON 70

  20. Q4·1:55

    shot clock turnover

    ATL 88·CON 70

  21. Q4·1:55

    Sun offensive team rebound

    ATL 88·CON 70

  22. Q4·1:55

    Te-Hina Paopao blocks Lindsay Allen 's 10-foot pullup jump shot

    ·

    ATL 88·CON 70

  23. Q4·2:22

    Maya Caldwell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rhyne Howard assists)

    ·

    ATL 88·CON 70

  24. Q4·2:30

    Nia Coffey enters the game for Brittney Griner

    ·

    ATL 85·CON 70

  25. Q4·2:30

    Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Allisha Gray

    ·

    ATL 85·CON 70

  26. Q4·2:30

    Dream Full timeout

    ATL 85·CON 70

  27. Q4·2:30

    Allisha Gray defensive rebound

    ATL 85·CON 70

  28. Q4·2:30

    Brittney Griner blocks Aaliyah Edwards 's 2-foot two point shot

    ·

    ATL 85·CON 70

  29. Q4·2:31

    Aaliyah Edwards offensive rebound

    ATL 85·CON 70

  30. Q4·2:34

    Saniya Rivers misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot

    ATL 85·CON 70

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

CON

Home

33-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

26-73

54

FG %

36

10-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

3-20

12-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-21

26

Assists

14

13

Turnovers

10

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CON win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CON vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • Allisha GrayATL
    16.8± 11.4low
  • Rhyne HowardATL
    13.8± 9.6low
  • Brittney GrinerCON
    13.6± 5.3low

Rebounds

  • Angel ReeseATL
    9.8± 5.0low
  • Aneesah MorrowCON
    9.4± 5.2low
  • Brittney GrinerCON
    5.2± 1.1low

Assists

  • Jordin CanadaATL
    5.6± 4.7low
  • Rhyne HowardATL
    3.8± 3.1low
  • Saniya RiversCON
    3.7± 2.9low

Blocks

  • Kennedy BurkeCON
    0.9± 0.8low
  • Angel ReeseATL
    0.8± 1.3low
  • Rhyne HowardATL
    0.6± 1.2low

Steals

  • Rhyne HowardATL
    2.3± 2.6low
  • Jordin CanadaATL
    1.7± 3.2low
  • Ashlon JacksonCON
    1.6± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

ATL

ATL

league avg

CON

CON

43.6%

FG%

◀

44.7

40.7%

31.4%

3PT %

◀

32.6

26.0%

83.9

PPG

◀

85.4

74.7

19.9

Assists / G

◀

18.0

17.9

14.9

Turnovers / G

13.0

14.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop