Sep 6, 25sim 93
1184
18(H)87
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+17ATL
ATL
26-14
9376
CON
10-30
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 93–76.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Naz Hillmon
F · #0
20.1Game score
17
Pts
6
Reb
6
Ast
CON · top performer
Leila Lacan
G · #47
13.5Game score
17
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL26-14
9376
CON10-30
ATL26-14CON10-30
ATL
26-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +25 | |
| 36 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +23 | |
| 37 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +17 | |
| 38 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +25 | |
| 20 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | |
| 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12 | |
| 20 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +24 | |
| Team | 93 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 6 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry | ||||||||
CON
10-30
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 36 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -16 | |
| 23 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 30 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -21 | |
| 31 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -7 | |
| 21 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -16 | |
| 28 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| Team | 76 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 11 | ||
| DNP: H. Peters, O. Nelson-Ododa, B. Hartley | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
50
16
Ast
17
Season series
ATL wins series 4-1
May 25CON55@ATL79
CON55@ATL79Jun 6ATL76@CON84
ATL76@CON84Sep 1ATL93@CON76today
ATL93@CON76todaySep 8CON62@ATL87
CON62@ATL87Sep 10ATL88@CON72
ATL88@CON72Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 5:07
ATLN. Hillmon
FGame leader · 36 min
17 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST
CONL. Lacan
GGame leader · 31 min
17 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
ATL beat CON 93-76. N. Hillmon led with 17 PTS, 6 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 26-10 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 28 REB · 13 AST
GS 57
Bench(6)
23 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
GS 20
CONstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST
GS 42
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL3rd Quarter · 52.5 · 64-64
+11pp→ 60% WP
Brionna Jones · blocks Marina Mabrey 's 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CON4th Quarter · 9:41 · 67-68
+9pp→ 46% WP
Saniya Rivers · makes 2-foot two point shot
CON4th Quarter · 5:07 · 76-72
+11pp→ 33% WP
Rhyne Howard · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 23 | 19 | 25 | 26 | 93 |
| CON | 21 | 27 | 18 | 10 | 76 |
Period scoring
ATL won 3 · CON won 1
23
21
Q1
Gray 7
Lacan 6
19
27
Q2
Hillmon 6
Charles 11
25
18
Q3
Howard 9
Lacan 6
26
10
Q4
Howard 11
Rivers 4
ATL
CON
Shooting comparison
ATL
CON
43%
30-69
FG
50%
31-62
33%
10-30
3PT
12%
2-17
96%
23-24
FT
86%
12-14
Play-by-play · 373 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 93·CON 76
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 93·CON 76
- Q4·21.2
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
ATL 93·CON 76
- Q4·23.5
Rhyne Howard misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 93·CON 76
- Q4·45.2
Aaliyah Edwards makes 3-foot layup (Marina Mabrey assists)
·
ATL 93·CON 76
- Q4·57.0
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 1
ATL 93·CON 74
- Q4·57.0
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
ATL 92·CON 74
- Q4·57.0
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
ATL 92·CON 74
- Q4·57.0
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
ATL 92·CON 74
- Q4·57.0
Sika Kone enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
ATL 92·CON 74
- Q4·57.0
Aaliyah Edwards enters the game for Tina Charles
·
ATL 92·CON 74
- Q4·57.0
Leila Lacan shooting foul
ATL 92·CON 74
- Q4·57.0
Rhyne Howard makes two point shot
ATL 92·CON 74
- Q4·59.7
Leila Lacan lost ball turnover (Rhyne Howard steals)
·
ATL 90·CON 74
- Q4·1:10
Naz Hillmon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brionna Jones assists)
·
ATL 90·CON 74
- Q4·1:32
Leila Lacan out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 87·CON 74
- Q4·1:40
Jordin Canada makes 5-foot jump bank shot
ATL 87·CON 74
- Q4·2:04
5 second violation
ATL 85·CON 74
- Q4·2:04
Marina Mabrey enters the game for Lindsay Allen
·
ATL 85·CON 74
- Q4·2:04
Aneesah Morrow enters the game for Aaliyah Edwards
·
ATL 85·CON 74
- Q4·2:04
Sun Full timeout
ATL 85·CON 74
- Q4·2:11
Jordin Canada makes driving layup
ATL 85·CON 74
−0.6pp
- Q4·2:21
Naz Hillmon offensive rebound
ATL 83·CON 74
−0.7pp
- Q4·2:22
Rhyne Howard misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 83·CON 74
- Q4·2:46
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
ATL 83·CON 74
- Q4·2:47
Tina Charles misses 14-foot jumper
ATL 83·CON 74
−1pp
- Q4·3:08
Rhyne Howard makes 30-foot three point jumper (Naz Hillmon assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 83·CON 74
−5pp
- Q4·3:32
Lindsay Allen out of bounds lost ball turnover
ATL 80·CON 74
−5pp
- Q4·3:50
Jordin Canada makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
ATL 80·CON 74
−5pp
- Q4·4:09
(04:09) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Dream] retain their timeout
ATL 78·CON 74
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
CON
Home
30-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-62
43
FG %
50
10-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
2-17
23-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-14
16
Assists
17
6
Turnovers
11
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
CON
43.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
31.4%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
83.9
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
19.9
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
14.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.8