Sep 6, 25sim 94
1184
18(H)87
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5LV
LV
25-14
7974
CHI
9-28
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 79–74.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
24.7Game score
22
Pts
3
Reb
7
Ast
CHI · top performer
Ariel Atkins
G · #7
24.0Game score
30
Pts
4
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV25-14
7974
CHI9-28
LV25-14CHI9-28
LV
25-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +9 | |
| 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -6 | |
| 35 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +2 | |
| 36 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +10 | |
| 35 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 29 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | |
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 79 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Stokes | ||||||||
CHI
9-28
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | |
| 37 | 10 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| 26 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +7 | |
| 26 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| 34 | 30 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | |
| 16 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 74 | 42 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 18 | ||
| DNP: M. Westbeld, C. Vandersloot | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
38
20
Ast
20
Season series
LV wins series 3-0
Aug 26LV79@CHI74today
LV79@CHI74todaySep 8CHI66@LV80
CHI66@LV80Sep 10CHI61@LV92
CHI61@LV92Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 32pp · 4th Quarter · 1:35
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 35 min
22 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST
CHIA. Atkins
GGame leader · 34 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
LV beat CHI 79-74. J. Young led with 22 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST. CHI outscored the other side 24-16 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 19 REB · 17 AST
GS 52
Bench(5)
13 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
GS 9
CHIstarters 91% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 34 REB · 17 AST
GS 51
Bench(5)
7 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCHI4th Quarter · 3:47 · 73-69
+16pp→ 30% WP
Ariel Atkins · makes free throw 1 of 2
LV4th Quarter · 1:35 · 76-74
+32pp→ 60% WP
Chelsea Gray · makes 27-foot three point jumper (A'ja Wilson assists)
LV4th Quarter · 1:15 · 76-74
+15pp→ 86% WP
Ariel Atkins · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 20 | 24 | 16 | 19 | 79 |
| CHI | 14 | 18 | 24 | 18 | 74 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · CHI won 1
20
14
Q1
Gray 6
Atkins 7
24
18
Q2
Young 15
Atkins 12
16
24
Q3
Wilson 7
Cardoso 13
19
18
Q4
Wilson 7
Reese 11
LV
CHI
Shooting comparison
LV
CHI
45%
30-67
FG
38%
25-65
48%
11-23
3PT
28%
5-18
80%
8-10
FT
83%
19-23
Play-by-play · 396 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 79·CHI 74
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 79·CHI 74
- Q4·5.0
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 79·CHI 74
- Q4·6.9
Ariel Atkins misses driving floating jump shot
LV 79·CHI 74
−4pp
- Q4·18.2
Rachel Banham enters the game for Michaela Onyenwere
· ·
LV 79·CHI 74
- Q4·18.2
Sky timeout
LV 79·CHI 74
- Q4·18.2
Kamilla Cardoso defensive rebound
LV 79·CHI 74
- Q4·18.9
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 2 of 2
LV 79·CHI 74
+4pp
- Q4·18.9
NaLyssa Smith enters the game for Dana Evans
·
LV 79·CHI 74
- Q4·18.9
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 79·CHI 74
- Q4·18.9
Ariel Atkins personal take foul
LV 78·CHI 74
−4pp
- Q4·19.6
Dana Evans enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 78·CHI 74
- Q4·19.6
Aces timeout
LV 78·CHI 74
- Q4·19.6
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
LV 78·CHI 74
−1pp
- Q4·19.6
Kia Nurse misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 78·CHI 74
−8pp
- Q4·34.5
Sky Full timeout
LV 78·CHI 74
- Q4·34.5
Chelsea Gray turnover
LV 78·CHI 74
- Q4·34.5
Chelsea Gray offensive foul
LV 78·CHI 74
+5pp
- Q4·50.8
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
LV 78·CHI 74
−2pp
- Q4·52.5
Ariel Atkins misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 78·CHI 74
−7pp
- Q4·1:06
Sky Full timeout
LV 78·CHI 74
- Q4·1:11
A'ja Wilson makes 19-foot jumper (Chelsea Gray assists)
·
LV 78·CHI 74
+4pp
- Q4·1:15
Ariel Atkins personal foulBIG MOMENT
LV 76·CHI 74
−15pp
- Q4·1:18
Jackie Young defensive rebound
LV 76·CHI 74
−3pp
- Q4·1:21
NaLyssa Smith blocks Kamilla Cardoso 's 4-foot layupBIG MOMENT
·
LV 76·CHI 74
−8pp
- Q4·1:35
Chelsea Gray makes 27-foot three point jumper (A'ja Wilson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 76·CHI 74
−32pp
- Q4·1:43
Ariel Atkins kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
LV 73·CHI 74
+11pp
- Q4·1:54
Angel Reese out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
LV 73·CHI 74
−10pp
- Q4·1:54
Angel Reese offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LV 73·CHI 74
+8pp
- Q4·1:54
Ariel Atkins misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 73·CHI 74
−6pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
30-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-65
45
FG %
38
11-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-18
8-10
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-23
20
Assists
20
12
Turnovers
18
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Jacy SheldonCHI1.1± 2.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
CHI
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.1%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
32.6
25.9%
91.0
PPG
◀
85.4
82.8
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.3
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶11.0