Jul 24, 25sim 95
1770
5(H)80
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+20IND
SEA
20-19
7595
IND
20-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off Seattle Storm, 95–75. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
10.1Game score
17
Pts
2
Reb
0
Ast
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
23.4Game score
27
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA20-19
7595
IND20-18
SEA20-19IND20-18
SEA
20-19
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -23 | |
| 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 23 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -17 | |
| 25 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -24 | |
| 27 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -21 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 24 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -7 | |
| 22 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -19 | |
| 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 75 | 21 | 21 | 6 | 9 | 13 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
IND
20-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +29 | |
| 27 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +27 | |
| 28 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +30 | |
| 30 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +18 | |
| 23 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +31 | |
| 18 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -9 | |
| 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 20 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| Team | 95 | 42 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 11 | ||
| DNP: C. Bibby, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
51
21
Ast
22
Season series
IND wins series 3-0
Jun 25IND94@SEA86
IND94@SEA86Aug 3IND78@SEA74
IND78@SEA74Aug 26SEA75@IND95today
SEA75@IND95todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:46
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 26 min
17 PTS · 2 REB · 0 AST
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 27 min
27 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
IND beat SEA 95-75. A. Boston paced them with 27 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 9 REB · 14 AST
GS 32
Bench(6)
30 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST
GS 26
INDstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 26 REB · 18 AST
GS 74
Bench(5)
14 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
GS 9
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND2nd Quarter · 1:46 · 33-45
+6pp→ 88% WP
Aliyah Boston · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Natasha Howard assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 20 | 19 | 17 | 19 | 75 |
| IND | 26 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 95 |
Period scoring
SEA won 0 · IND won 4
20
26
Q1
Ogwumike 8
Mitchell 12
19
24
Q2
Diggins 6
Boston 8
17
24
Q3
Sykes 6
Boston 10
19
21
Q4
Cooke 5
Sims 7
SEA
IND
Shooting comparison
SEA
IND
48%
29-61
FG
51%
36-71
35%
6-17
3PT
41%
7-17
73%
11-15
FT
80%
16-20
Play-by-play · 371 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 75·IND 95
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 75·IND 95
- Q4·5.3
shot clock turnover
SEA 75·IND 95
- Q4·30.1
Zia Cooke makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Lexie Brown assists)
·
SEA 75·IND 95
- Q4·34.0
Makayla Timpson personal foul
SEA 73·IND 95
- Q4·51.4
Mackenzie Holmes defensive rebound
SEA 73·IND 95
- Q4·54.5
Shey Peddy misses 22-foot three point jumper
SEA 73·IND 95
- Q4·59.0
Dominique Malonga lost ball turnover (Aerial Powers steals)
·
SEA 73·IND 95
- Q4·1:00
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
SEA 73·IND 95
- Q4·1:01
Damiris Dantas misses 10-foot two point shot
SEA 73·IND 95
- Q4·1:17
Mackenzie Holmes makes two point shot (Zia Cooke assists)
·
SEA 73·IND 95
- Q4·1:23
Aerial Powers bad pass (Mackenzie Holmes steals)
·
SEA 71·IND 95
- Q4·1:37
Zia Cooke makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lexie Brown assists)
·
SEA 71·IND 95
- Q4·1:44
Brianna Turner makes two point shot
SEA 68·IND 95
- Q4·1:44
Brianna Turner offensive rebound
SEA 68·IND 93
- Q4·1:47
Damiris Dantas misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 68·IND 93
- Q4·1:54
Aerial Powers defensive rebound
SEA 68·IND 93
- Q4·1:56
Dominique Malonga misses 7-foot two point shot
SEA 68·IND 93
- Q4·2:04
Damiris Dantas bad pass (Mackenzie Holmes steals)
·
SEA 68·IND 93
- Q4·2:19
Zia Cooke traveling
SEA 68·IND 93
- Q4·2:23
Zia Cooke defensive rebound
SEA 68·IND 93
- Q4·2:27
Aerial Powers misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 68·IND 93
- Q4·2:31
Mackenzie Holmes personal foul
SEA 68·IND 93
- Q4·2:50
Dominique Malonga makes 10-foot two point shot
SEA 68·IND 93
- Q4·3:07
Makayla Timpson makes layup (Brianna Turner assists)
·
SEA 66·IND 93
- Q4·3:23
Mackenzie Holmes makes layup (Lexie Brown assists)
·
SEA 66·IND 91
- Q4·3:32
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
SEA 64·IND 91
- Q4·3:34
Shey Peddy misses 31-foot three point jumper
SEA 64·IND 91
- Q4·3:37
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Odyssey Sims
·
SEA 64·IND 91
- Q4·3:37
(03:37) [Fever] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Fever] retain their timeout
SEA 64·IND 91
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
IND
Home
29-61
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-71
48
FG %
51
6-17
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-17
11-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-20
21
Assists
22
13
Turnovers
11
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND13.9± 11.6low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Stefanie DolsonSEA0.9± 1.3low
Steals
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
IND
41.6%
FG%
44.7
▶45.4%
34.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
32.1%
79.5
PPG
85.4
▶92.9
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4