Aug 3, 25sim 100
12968977
17(H)101
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6LV
LV
16-14
7872
GS
14-15
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 78–72.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
27.1Game score
27
Pts
7
Reb
3
Ast
GS · top performer
Kaila Charles
G · #6
13.1Game score
11
Pts
4
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV16-14
7872
GS14-15
LV16-14GS14-15
LV
16-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | |
| 32 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +18 | |
| 33 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 37 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +13 | |
| 31 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
| 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| Team | 78 | 31 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 13 | ||
GS
14-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 30 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 27 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 30 | 14 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -14 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 23 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 24 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +3 | |
| Team | 72 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 13 | ||
| DNP: L. Amihere, K. Chen | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
40
15
Ast
9
Season series
LV wins series 3-1
Jun 7LV68@GS95
LV68@GS95Jul 12GS102@LV104
GS102@LV104Aug 3GS77@LV101
GS77@LV101Aug 7LV78@GS72today
LV78@GS72todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 20pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:20
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 32 min
27 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
GSK. Charles
GGame leader · 23 min
11 PTS · 4 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
LV beat GS 78-72. A. Wilson paced them with 27 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST. Chelsea Gray's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 27 REB · 11 AST
GS 55
Bench(5)
18 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
GS 6
GSstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 23 REB · 6 AST
GS 25
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS2nd Quarter · 2:35 · 31-31
+14pp→ 41% WP
Veronica Burton · out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS3rd Quarter · 5:43 · 48-48
+15pp→ 47% WP
Jackie Young · personal foul
LV3rd Quarter · 3:20 · 57-50
+20pp→ 85% WP
Chelsea Gray · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 16 | 27 | 21 | 14 | 78 |
| GS | 14 | 24 | 16 | 18 | 72 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · GS won 1
16
14
Q1
Smith 6
Salaun 4
27
24
Q2
Wilson 8
Leite 7
21
16
Q3
Wilson 7
Hayes 9
14
18
Q4
Loyd 6
Hayes 8
LV
GS
Shooting comparison
LV
GS
45%
27-60
FG
40%
25-63
19%
5-27
3PT
18%
4-22
76%
19-25
FT
95%
18-19
Play-by-play · 395 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 78·GS 72
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 78·GS 72
- Q4·2.8
Kierstan Bell enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 78·GS 72
- Q4·2.8
Aces Full timeout
LV 78·GS 72
- Q4·2.8
Tiffany Hayes makes two point shot
LV 78·GS 72
- Q4·3.7
Tiffany Hayes offensive rebound
LV 78·GS 70
- Q4·3.7
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 26-foot three point jumper
LV 78·GS 70
- Q4·5.1
Cecilia Zandalasini offensive rebound
LV 78·GS 70
- Q4·9.1
Carla Leite misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
LV 78·GS 70
- Q4·15.4
NaLyssa Smith enters the game for Kierstan Bell
·
LV 78·GS 70
- Q4·15.4
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
LV 78·GS 70
- Q4·15.4
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 78·GS 70
- Q4·15.4
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 77·GS 70
- Q4·15.4
Cecilia Zandalasini personal foul
LV 76·GS 70
−0.6pp
- Q4·17.3
Aces timeout
LV 76·GS 70
- Q4·17.3
Kaila Charles makes two point shot
LV 76·GS 70
- Q4·18.4
Kaila Charles offensive rebound
LV 76·GS 68
- Q4·21.6
Temi Fagbenle misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
LV 76·GS 68
−0.9pp
- Q4·34.9
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 76·GS 68
+0.7pp
- Q4·34.9
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 75·GS 68
- Q4·34.9
Tiffany Hayes shooting foul
LV 74·GS 68
−2pp
- Q4·50.0
Kierstan Bell enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 74·GS 68
- Q4·50.0
Aces Full timeout
LV 74·GS 68
- Q4·50.3
Tiffany Hayes makes two point shot
LV 74·GS 68
+0.8pp
- Q4·53.7
Tiffany Hayes defensive rebound
LV 74·GS 66
- Q4·57.2
Jackie Young misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 74·GS 66
- Q4·1:14
Cecilia Zandalasini bad pass (Jackie Young steals)
·
LV 74·GS 66
−1pp
- Q4·1:25
Jackie Young out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 74·GS 66
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:36
NaLyssa Smith offensive rebound
LV 74·GS 66
−1pp
- Q4·1:38
Chelsea Gray misses free throw 2 of 2
LV 74·GS 66
+1pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
GS
Home
27-60
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-63
45
FG %
40
5-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-22
19-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-19
15
Assists
9
13
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- Veronica BurtonGS1.0± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
GS
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.3%
34.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶36.1%
91.0
PPG
◀
85.4
86.4
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1