Aug 7, 25sim 100
1778
129689(H)72
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+24LV
GS
14-14
77101
LV
15-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Golden State Valkyries, 101–77. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Laeticia Amihere
F · #3
16.0Game score
14
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
21.9Game score
20
Pts
5
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS14-14
77101
LV15-14
GS14-14LV15-14
GS
14-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 16 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -24 | |
| 18 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| 23 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 23 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 33 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 22 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 22 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -23 | |
| 25 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| 18 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| Team | 77 | 39 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Thornton, M. Billings, C. Zandalasini, T. Hayes | ||||||||
LV
15-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 16 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 15 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | |
| 29 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +26 | |
| 30 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | +17 | |
| 30 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +25 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 26 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +36 | |
| 18 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +12 | |
| Team | 101 | 46 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 15 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
34
FG %
46
19
Ast
24
Season series
LV wins series 3-1
Jun 7LV68@GS95
LV68@GS95Jul 12GS102@LV104
GS102@LV104Aug 3GS77@LV101today
GS77@LV101todayAug 7LV78@GS72
LV78@GS72Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 2:06
GSL. Amihere
FGame leader · 22 min
14 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 30 min
20 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
LV beat GS 101-77. J. Young led with 20 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST. LV outscored the other side 27-14 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST
GS 34
Bench(4)
32 PTS · 19 REB · 10 AST
GS 28
LVstarters 50% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 32 REB · 18 AST
GS 48
Bench(5)
50 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST
GS 42
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV1st Quarter · 2:06 · 12-18
+6pp→ 85% WP
Jackie Young · makes free throw 2 of 3
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 14 | 11 | 25 | 27 | 77 |
| LV | 27 | 23 | 26 | 25 | 101 |
Period scoring
GS won 1 · LV won 3
14
27
Q1
Burton 5
Young 11
11
23
Q2
Amihere 6
Loyd 8
25
26
Q3
Leite 8
Young 10
27
25
Q4
Amihere 8
Nye 24
GS
LV
Shooting comparison
GS
LV
34%
25-73
FG
46%
35-76
29%
10-34
3PT
45%
18-40
94%
17-18
FT
81%
13-16
Play-by-play · 407 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 77·LV 101
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 77·LV 101
- Q4·1.4
shot clock turnover
GS 77·LV 101
- Q4·23.7
Megan Gustafson defensive rebound
GS 77·LV 101
- Q4·25.6
Kate Martin misses driving layup
GS 77·LV 101
- Q4·37.2
Dana Evans makes driving layup
GS 77·LV 101
- Q4·49.1
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
GS 77·LV 99
- Q4·52.2
Laeticia Amihere misses two point shot
GS 77·LV 99
- Q4·57.9
Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound
GS 77·LV 99
- Q4·1:00
Dana Evans misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
GS 77·LV 99
- Q4·1:16
Kaila Charles makes driving layup (Carla Leite assists)
·
GS 77·LV 99
- Q4·1:29
Megan Gustafson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kierstan Bell assists)
·
GS 75·LV 99
- Q4·1:46
Laeticia Amihere makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 75·LV 96
- Q4·1:46
Laeticia Amihere makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 74·LV 96
- Q4·1:46
Megan Gustafson shooting foul
GS 73·LV 96
- Q4·1:48
Laeticia Amihere offensive rebound
GS 73·LV 96
- Q4·1:53
Kierstan Bell blocks Kate Martin 's 8-foot pullup jump shot
·
GS 73·LV 96
- Q4·2:02
Kate Martin defensive rebound
GS 73·LV 96
- Q4·2:06
Kierstan Bell misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 73·LV 96
- Q4·2:18
Kierstan Bell offensive rebound
GS 73·LV 96
- Q4·2:21
Megan Gustafson misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 73·LV 96
- Q4·2:40
Kaitlyn Chen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Laeticia Amihere assists)
·
GS 73·LV 96
- Q4·2:44
Megan Gustafson personal foul
GS 70·LV 96
- Q4·2:44
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 70·LV 96
- Q4·2:44
Kate Martin misses running pullup jump shot
GS 70·LV 96
- Q4·2:48
Kate Martin defensive rebound
GS 70·LV 96
- Q4·2:50
Megan Gustafson misses 5-foot two point shot
GS 70·LV 96
- Q4·2:58
Aaliyah Nye defensive rebound
GS 70·LV 96
- Q4·3:01
Kaila Charles misses 27-foot three point shot
GS 70·LV 96
- Q4·3:06
Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound
GS 70·LV 96
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
LV
Home
25-73
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-76
34
FG %
46
10-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
18-40
17-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-16
19
Assists
24
10
Turnovers
15
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- Veronica BurtonGS1.0± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
LV
41.3%
FG%
44.7
▶49.7%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
34.9%
86.4
PPG
85.4
▶91.0
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
13.6