Sep 3, 25sim 97
675
20(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+19ATL
LA
19-22
85104
ATL
28-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Los Angeles Sparks, 104–85. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Dearica Hamby
F · #5
23.7Game score
26
Pts
7
Reb
5
Ast
ATL · top performer
Rhyne Howard
G · #10
29.3Game score
37
Pts
5
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA19-22
85104
ATL28-14
LA19-22ATL28-14
LA
19-22
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 24 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 35 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -11 | |
| 37 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 34 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -13 | |
| 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -10 | |
| Team | 85 | 27 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 8 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon | ||||||||
ATL
28-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 34 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 31 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 37 | 37 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 21 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 18 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +11 | |
| 31 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +28 | |
| Team | 104 | 41 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 9 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
49
16
Ast
28
Season series
ATL wins series 3-0
May 28ATL88@LA82
ATL88@LA82Sep 3LA75@ATL86
LA75@ATL86Sep 5LA85@ATL104today
LA85@ATL104todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:09
LAD. Hamby
FGame leader · 33 min
26 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
ATLR. Howard
GGame leader · 37 min30+ point game
37 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
ATL beat LA 104-85. R. Howard led the way with 37 points and 6 assists. ATL outscored the other side 29-20 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST
GS 59
Bench(6)
10 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
GS 7
ATLstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 27 REB · 22 AST
GS 61
Bench(5)
36 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST
GS 29
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA2nd Quarter · 29.7 · 50-55
+7pp→ 20% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dearica Hamby assists)
ATL3rd Quarter · 4:09 · 64-69
+7pp→ 80% WP
Dearica Hamby · misses two point shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 24 | 28 | 20 | 13 | 85 |
| ATL | 31 | 25 | 29 | 19 | 104 |
Period scoring
LA won 1 · ATL won 3
24
31
Q1
Jackson 9
Howard 17
28
25
Q2
Hamby 11
Howard 12
20
29
Q3
Plum 8
Caldwell 11
13
19
Q4
Allemand 5
Kone 4
LA
ATL
Shooting comparison
LA
ATL
46%
29-63
FG
49%
38-77
27%
6-22
3PT
49%
19-39
84%
21-25
FT
75%
9-12
Play-by-play · 373 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 85·ATL 104
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 85·ATL 104
- Q4·8.9
Alissa Pili makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 85·ATL 104
- Q4·8.9
Alissa Pili makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 84·ATL 104
- Q4·8.9
Sika Kone shooting foul
LA 83·ATL 104
- Q4·20.3
Sika Kone makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 83·ATL 104
- Q4·20.3
Sika Kone makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 83·ATL 103
- Q4·20.3
Rae Burrell personal foul
LA 83·ATL 102
- Q4·29.6
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
LA 83·ATL 102
- Q4·33.0
Sania Feagin misses driving layup
LA 83·ATL 102
- Q4·47.8
Sika Kone makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 83·ATL 102
- Q4·47.8
Sika Kone makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 83·ATL 101
- Q4·47.8
Sania Feagin personal foul
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:03
Sania Feagin enters the game for Azura Stevens
·
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:03
Julie Vanloo enters the game for Julie Allemand
·
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:03
Sarah Ashlee Barker enters the game for Kelsey Plum
·
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:03
Rae Burrell enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:03
Alissa Pili enters the game for Rickea Jackson
·
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:03
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:03
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:03
Sika Kone enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:03
Dearica Hamby personal take foul
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:03
Jordin Canada defensive rebound
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:06
Brittney Griner blocks Kelsey Plum 's 22-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:12
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:15
Rhyne Howard misses driving layup
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:24
Dearica Hamby makes two point shot
LA 83·ATL 100
- Q4·1:24
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
LA 81·ATL 100
- Q4·1:29
Julie Allemand misses 24-foot three point jumper
LA 81·ATL 100
- Q4·1:44
Jordin Canada makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brittney Griner assists)
·
LA 81·ATL 100
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
29-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-77
46
FG %
49
6-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
19-39
21-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-12
16
Assists
28
8
Turnovers
9
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
ATL
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
43.6%
34.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
83.9
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.9
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.9